Logistic Model for Predicting Coliform Growth in Wastewater Effluent From the Chambo River (Ecuador)

Abstract

Purpose: The objective of this work is to apply a predictive model of bacterial growth to determine the concentration of total coliforms, under controlled laboratory conditions, in wastewater from the city of Riobamba that flows into the Chambo River (Ecuador).   Theoretical Framework: Wastewater pollution is a global problem that affects water quality and public health. Population growth has a drastic impact on the contamination of water bodies, particularly in Ecuador, since most of the effluents are not adequately treated, which becomes a public health and environmental problem. For this reason, over the years, total and fecal coliforms have been used as indicators of water quality.   Design/Methodology/Approach: The study used a mathematical modeling approach of a logistic and deterministic type, and calculated through an executable command designed in the integrated development environment (IDE) with the Visual C# programming language (logic) and the XAML design language (interface).   Findings: The results achieved are 1) the theoretical construction of a mathematical model (logistic model) starting from a differential equation and the taking of three experimental measurements, 2) the computer construction of the bacterial growth model and 3) it has been demonstrated that there is agreement between the values obtained from the model of total coliform growth and the experimental results with a margin of error of less than 1%.   Research, Practical & Social Implications: This information can be used by stakeholders to determine actions that could improve current conditions.   Originality/Value: The result of this study emphasizes that the model proposed can reproduce the growth of coliforms up to a maximum growth point, it is necessary to continue with the development of the same in the stationary phase of bacterial growth and then in the decay phase.