Going beyond probability of success: Opportunities for statisticians to influence quantitative decision-making at the portfolio level.

Abstract

The pharmaceutical industry is plagued with long, costly development and high risk. Therefore, a company's effective management and optimisation of a portfolio of projects is critical for success. Project metrics such as the probability of success enable modelling of a company's pipeline accounting for the high uncertainty inherent within the industry. Making portfolio decisions inherently involves managing risk, and statisticians are ideally positioned to champion not only the derivation of metrics for individual projects, but also advocate decision-making at a broader portfolio level. This article aims to examine the existing different portfolio decision-making approaches and to suggest opportunities for statisticians to add value in terms of introducing probabilistic thinking, quantitative decision-making, and increasingly advanced methodologies.