Lara Wallberg, Laura Suarez‐Gutierrez, Daniela Matei, Wolfgang A. Müller
{"title":"Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation","authors":"Lara Wallberg, Laura Suarez‐Gutierrez, Daniela Matei, Wolfgang A. Müller","doi":"10.5194/esd-15-1-2024","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The internal variability of European summer temperatures has been linked to various mechanisms on seasonal to sub- and multi-decadal timescales. We find that sub-decadal timescales dominate summer temperature variability over large parts of the continent and determine mechanisms controlling extremely warm summers on sub-decadal timescales. We show that the sub-decadal warm phases of bandpass-filtered European summer temperatures, hereinafter referred to as extremely warm European summers, are related to a strengthening of the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre, an increase in meridional heat transport, and an accumulation of ocean heat content in the North Atlantic several years prior to the extreme summer. This ocean warming affects the ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes, leading to a weakening and northward displacement of the jet stream and increased probability of occurrence of high-pressure systems over Scandinavia. Thus, our findings link the occurrence of extremely warm European summers to the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean and provide the potential to improve the predictability of extremely warm summers several years ahead, which is of great societal interest.\n","PeriodicalId":48931,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earth System Dynamics","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract. The internal variability of European summer temperatures has been linked to various mechanisms on seasonal to sub- and multi-decadal timescales. We find that sub-decadal timescales dominate summer temperature variability over large parts of the continent and determine mechanisms controlling extremely warm summers on sub-decadal timescales. We show that the sub-decadal warm phases of bandpass-filtered European summer temperatures, hereinafter referred to as extremely warm European summers, are related to a strengthening of the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre, an increase in meridional heat transport, and an accumulation of ocean heat content in the North Atlantic several years prior to the extreme summer. This ocean warming affects the ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes, leading to a weakening and northward displacement of the jet stream and increased probability of occurrence of high-pressure systems over Scandinavia. Thus, our findings link the occurrence of extremely warm European summers to the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean and provide the potential to improve the predictability of extremely warm summers several years ahead, which is of great societal interest.
期刊介绍:
Earth System Dynamics (ESD) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal committed to publishing and facilitating public discussion on interdisciplinary studies focusing on the Earth system and global change. The journal explores the intricate interactions among Earth's component systems, including the atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, oceans, pedosphere, lithosphere, and the influence of life and human activity. ESD welcomes contributions that delve into these interactions, their conceptualization, modeling, quantification, predictions of global change impacts, and their implications for Earth's habitability, humanity, and the future dynamics in the Anthropocene.