Do natural disasters affect local elections? An empirical examination using subnational electoral data

Abstract

Do natural disasters affect election results? Some studies have shown that natural disasters negatively impact subsequent elections, while others do not. This study investigated the link between natural disasters and local elections using data from the Japanese prefectural governor elections for the years 1985–2015. A rich data set is available for prefectural governor elections in Japan that includes information on who won, the vote shares of all candidates, and when the election was held, among others. We found empirical evidence that the number of days between an election and most recent disaster before election positively impacted the vote share of the incumbent/successor. In other words, an incumbent/successor is likely to have less support in the election immediately following a disaster by the constituencies, but can get more support as time passes after the disaster. Moreover, political alignment with the central ruling parties positively affects the vote share of an incumbent/successor over time between an election and the most recent disaster. These results suggest a possibility that politicians seek popularity not through the implementation of proper disaster recovery policies but by taking advantage of their connection with central ruling parties, which may harm citizens' welfare in the long run.