Toward a Multi-stressor Theory for Coral Reefs in a Changing World

Abstract

Coral reefs are facing a constant barrage of human impacts, including eutrophication, overharvesting and climate change. While the local effects of overharvesting have been well-studied, regional nutrient loading from anthropogenic activities on land and global climate change-induced disturbances are increasing in magnitude and necessitating cross-scale multi-stressor approaches for coral reef ecology. Here, we expand on longstanding theory to develop an integrated multi-stressor framework for coral reefs. We show that: (i) The geometry of a simple, empirically motivated model suggests nutrients and harvesting can operate similarly, and synergistically, in driving shifts from coral- to algae-dominated reefs, resulting in clear context-dependent management implications; and (ii) this same geometry suggests climate-driven coral mortality can drive the presence of long transients and climate-driven alternate states, even in moderately impacted ecosystems. Reefs seemingly in a “safe space” based on individual stressors may in fact be much more susceptible to increasingly frequent storms and bleaching events in multi-stressor conditions. By integrating these findings with general ecological and theoretical concepts, we suggest that responses in benthic composition may act as “signatures of change” to multi-stressors, allowing us to develop a predictive and generalizable multi-stressor framework for coral reefs under global change. In line with this theory, we detail empirical evidence from Barbados of historical changes in reef composition and multi-stressor impacts within our framework. By bridging coral reef ecology and general ecological concepts, we can better understand ecosystem functioning and resilience in these important yet highly threatened systems.