Global change and adaptive biosecurity: managing current and emerging Aleurocanthus woglumi threats to Europe

IF 5.8 1区 农林科学 Q1 BIOLOGY Current opinion in insect science Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI:10.1016/j.cois.2024.101164
Darija Lemic , Darren J Kriticos , Helena Viric Gasparic , Ivana Pajač Živković , Catriona Duffy , Antigoni Akrivou , Noboru Ota
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Abstract

Global climate changes undermine the effectiveness of ‘set and forget’ phytosanitary regulations. Uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emission profiles render it impossible to accurately forecast future climate, thus limiting the ability to make long-term biosecurity policy decisions. Agile adaptive biosecurity frameworks are necessary to address these climatic uncertainties and to effectively manage current and emerging threats. This paper provides opinions on these issues and presents a case study focusing on the threats posed by Aleurocanthus woglumi (citrus blackfly) to Europe. It delves into the biology of the species, its preferred hosts, and how climate change could affect its spread. Utilizing a bioclimatic niche model, the paper estimates the potential distribution of A. woglumi in Europe under recent historical and medium-term future conditions, revealing a potential expansion of its range into higher elevations and more northern regions by the year 2050. The main aim is to leverage the results to showcase the system's sensitivity to likely emission scenarios, essentially stress-testing for potential emerging threats to biosecurity policies and phytosanitary regulations. The results underscore the significance of considering global change factors in pest risk assessment and phytosanitary regulations for effective risk mitigation. Consequently, adaptive biosecurity measures are essential, encompassing horizon scanning, enhanced targeted surveillance, periodic updates of risk assessments, and adjustments to regulations. For instance, biosecurity risk management could involve establishing a set of trigger conditions to prompt updates of risk assessments, such as identifying a zone where the confirmed establishment of a pest signifies a significant change in the pest risk profile. For jurisdictions containing areas modeled as being climatically suitable under historical climates or future climate scenarios, we caution against importing untreated host materials from regions that are likely to become suitable habitats for A. woglumi in the future. Moreover, it is important to consider both present and future climate change scenarios when making decisions to effectively address the threats posed by invasive species. In the case of highly impactful invasives, investing in preemptive biological control measures may prove to be a prudent choice.

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全球变化和适应性生物安全:管理当前和新出现的 Aleurocanthus woglumi 对欧洲的威胁
全球气候变化削弱了 "一劳永逸 "的植物检疫法规的有效性。未来温室气体排放情况的不确定性导致无法准确预测未来气候,从而限制了做出长期生物安全政策决定的能力。要应对这些气候不确定性,有效管理当前和新出现的威胁,就必须建立敏捷的适应性生物安全框架。本文就这些问题提出了自己的看法,并以柑橘黑蝇(Aleurocanthus woglumi)对欧洲造成的威胁为重点进行了案例研究。本文深入探讨了该物种的生物学特性、其偏好的寄主以及气候变化会如何影响其传播。论文利用生物气候生态位模型,估算了在近期历史条件和未来中期条件下,柑橘黑蝇在欧洲的潜在分布情况,揭示了到2050年,柑橘黑蝇的分布范围可能会扩展到海拔较高的地区和更北部的地区。主要目的是利用这些结果展示该系统对可能的排放情景的敏感性,主要是对生物安全政策和植物检疫法规可能面临的新威胁进行压力测试。结果强调了在害虫风险评估和植物检疫法规中考虑全球变化因素以有效降低风险的重要性。因此,必须采取适应性生物安全措施,包括前景扫描、加强针对性监测、定期更新风险评估和调整法规。例如,生物安全风险管理可包括建立一套触发条件,以促使更新风险评估,如确定一个区域,在该区域确认害虫的建立标志着害虫风险概况的重大变化。对于包含根据历史气候或未来气候情景模拟出的气候适宜地区的辖区,我们提醒不要从未来可能成为A. woglumi适宜栖息地的地区进口未经处理的寄主材料。此外,在做出有效应对入侵物种威胁的决策时,必须同时考虑当前和未来的气候变化情景。对于影响较大的入侵物种,投资于先发制人的生物防治措施可能是一个审慎的选择。
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来源期刊
Current opinion in insect science
Current opinion in insect science BIOLOGYECOLOGYENTOMOLOGY-ECOLOGY
CiteScore
10.40
自引率
1.90%
发文量
113
期刊介绍: Current Opinion in Insect Science is a new systematic review journal that aims to provide specialists with a unique and educational platform to keep up–to–date with the expanding volume of information published in the field of Insect Science. As this is such a broad discipline, we have determined themed sections each of which is reviewed once a year. The following 11 areas are covered by Current Opinion in Insect Science. -Ecology -Insect genomics -Global Change Biology -Molecular Physiology (Including Immunity) -Pests and Resistance -Parasites, Parasitoids and Biological Control -Behavioural Ecology -Development and Regulation -Social Insects -Neuroscience -Vectors and Medical and Veterinary Entomology There is also a section that changes every year to reflect hot topics in the field. Section Editors, who are major authorities in their area, are appointed by the Editors of the journal. They divide their section into a number of topics, ensuring that the field is comprehensively covered and that all issues of current importance are emphasized. Section Editors commission articles from leading scientists on each topic that they have selected and the commissioned authors write short review articles in which they present recent developments in their subject, emphasizing the aspects that, in their opinion, are most important. In addition, they provide short annotations to the papers that they consider to be most interesting from all those published in their topic over the previous year.
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