Moisture source differences between the 2020 and 1998 super Meiyu-flood events in the Yangtze River Valley

Abstract

Two historic Meiyu events in 1998 and 2020 hit the Yangtze River Valley (YRV), causing catastrophic damage to the socio-economy. By tracking moisture supplies to the extreme precipitation events using Water Accounting Model-2Layers and ERA5 reanalysis, the moisture origins and their differences in feeding the YRV precipitation were revealed. Climatologically, the southwest monsoon channel is the most important moisture channel with the Indian Ocean contributing ∼45% and the Indo-China Peninsula contributing ∼16% of the YRV precipitation. During the two super Meiyu events, the Indian Ocean and the Indo-China Peninsula dominated the excessive moisture supply, which together contributed more than 65% of the extra precipitation. Moisture supply anomalies in 1998 and 2020 showed a robust spatial pattern of “west increase-east decrease”. When the YRV precipitation is higher than the normal, moisture mainly comes from the southwest sources, and moisture contribution from the northwestern Pacific is relatively small. We also found that the intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high is a major influencing factor that explained ∼47% of the YRV precipitation variation during 1991–2020. When it intensifies, an anomalous anticyclone is formed in the mid-lower troposphere around the tropical Northwest Pacific. In its northwestern flank, a strong southwesterly in the upwind of the YRV helps bring in more moisture through the southwest monsoon. In the downwind, it inhibits moisture supply from the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Compared with 2020, a drier condition over Indo-China Peninsula and YRV in 1998 led to a substantially less (∼29%) moisture supply to the YRV precipitation, resulting in a less strong Meiyu event in 1998.