Pub Date : 2025-02-26DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100759
Dakota C. Forbis, Christina M. Patricola, Emily Bercos-Hickey, William A. Gallus Jr.
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Mid-century climate change impacts on tornado-producing tropical cyclones” [Weather Clim. Extr. 44 (2024) 100684]","authors":"Dakota C. Forbis, Christina M. Patricola, Emily Bercos-Hickey, William A. Gallus Jr.","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100759","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143528290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An enhanced extreme precipitation (EXP) in or near cities compared to rural areas has been widely observed and verified in individual urban sites. However, at a sufficiently large region, the robustness of evidence for the urbanization contribution to the estimate of EXP trends is still lacking. Here, we present clear evidence from observational records of a dense national station network that a significant urbanization-induced increase in annual EXP changes across mainland China (p < 0.01), which is detectable through urban‒rural comparative analysis. This urbanization effect accounts for approximately one-third of the observed EXP trends from 1960 to 2018. The results also indicate that urbanization significantly influences the frequency of EXP changes. The positive effect is especially noticeable in the humid climate zones of the southeastern China monsoon region, excluding coastal zones. Our analysis shows that the observed increase in regional EXP is more complex, and the observational data bias related to urbanization has to be considered in the large-scale detection and attribution of extreme precipitation changes.
{"title":"Impact of urbanization on regional extreme precipitation trends observed at China national station network","authors":"Suonam Kealdrup Tysa , Guoyu Ren , Panfeng Zhang , Siqi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100760","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100760","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An enhanced extreme precipitation (EXP) in or near cities compared to rural areas has been widely observed and verified in individual urban sites. However, at a sufficiently large region, the robustness of evidence for the urbanization contribution to the estimate of EXP trends is still lacking. Here, we present clear evidence from observational records of a dense national station network that a significant urbanization-induced increase in annual EXP changes across mainland China (<em>p</em> < 0.01), which is detectable through urban‒rural comparative analysis. This urbanization effect accounts for approximately one-third of the observed EXP trends from 1960 to 2018. The results also indicate that urbanization significantly influences the frequency of EXP changes. The positive effect is especially noticeable in the humid climate zones of the southeastern China monsoon region, excluding coastal zones. Our analysis shows that the observed increase in regional EXP is more complex, and the observational data bias related to urbanization has to be considered in the large-scale detection and attribution of extreme precipitation changes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100760"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143528291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-21DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100748
Jonna van Mourik , Denise Ruijsch , Karin van der Wiel , Wilco Hazeleger , Niko Wanders
Multi-year droughts (MYDs) are severe natural hazards that have become more common due to climate change. Given their significant societal impact compared to droughts of shorter duration, it is crucial to better understand the drivers of MYDs. Using reanalysis data, this study provides a historical overview of MYDs in California, Western Europe, India, central Argentina, South Africa, and southeast Australia. For each region, the characteristics and drivers of the multi-year droughts are given and compared to those of normal droughts (NDs). Additionally, we investigated the potential for longer-term memory of droughts. Our findings reveal that MYD occurrence and duration vary significantly per region, with relatively larger differences in duration between MYDs and NDs observed in California, Argentina, and Australia. Regions with distinctive seasonality in their precipitation climatology tend to experience faster drought onsets compared to regions with climatologically steady precipitation. Our analysis shows that MYDs and NDs often start with similar conditions but diverge over time, with larger potential evapotranspiration values for most regions, and additional lower precipitation rates for Argentina and India. Longer-term memory is present in Argentina, Australia, and South Africa, which might provide avenues for the predictability of MYDs in these regions. Teleconnections influenced by oceans and land are expected to play a significant role here, while in other regions MYD occurrence may be more subject to chance. These findings can aid in decision-making on water management, preceding and during droughts.
{"title":"Regional drivers and characteristics of multi-year droughts","authors":"Jonna van Mourik , Denise Ruijsch , Karin van der Wiel , Wilco Hazeleger , Niko Wanders","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100748","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100748","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Multi-year droughts (MYDs) are severe natural hazards that have become more common due to climate change. Given their significant societal impact compared to droughts of shorter duration, it is crucial to better understand the drivers of MYDs. Using reanalysis data, this study provides a historical overview of MYDs in California, Western Europe, India, central Argentina, South Africa, and southeast Australia. For each region, the characteristics and drivers of the multi-year droughts are given and compared to those of normal droughts (NDs). Additionally, we investigated the potential for longer-term memory of droughts. Our findings reveal that MYD occurrence and duration vary significantly per region, with relatively larger differences in duration between MYDs and NDs observed in California, Argentina, and Australia. Regions with distinctive seasonality in their precipitation climatology tend to experience faster drought onsets compared to regions with climatologically steady precipitation. Our analysis shows that MYDs and NDs often start with similar conditions but diverge over time, with larger potential evapotranspiration values for most regions, and additional lower precipitation rates for Argentina and India. Longer-term memory is present in Argentina, Australia, and South Africa, which might provide avenues for the predictability of MYDs in these regions. Teleconnections influenced by oceans and land are expected to play a significant role here, while in other regions MYD occurrence may be more subject to chance. These findings can aid in decision-making on water management, preceding and during droughts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100748"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The interannual variability of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall has amplified in recent decades. Observational and modeling efforts have revealed large-scale circulations could affect variability of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall by altering moisture sources and transport mechanisms. However, the contributions and thermodynamic processes of major moisture sources, along with their interannual variability, remain unclear. To better understand the underlying atmospheric processes responsible for interannual variability of Meiy-Baiu rainfall, we utilized an isotopic regional spectral model to investigate the moisture sources and isotopic composition of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall in southwestern Japan from 2004 to 2023. Asian Monsoon (AM) moisture in middle levels contributed more (51.4%) rainfall with lower δ2H and higher d-excess in heavy Meiyu-Baiu seasons. Extreme rainfall events showed lower δ2H and higher d-excess with more contribution (57.8%) from AM moisture at middle levels with high precipitation efficiency. Enhanced warm AM moisture feeds the condensation process and enhances atmospheric instability in the middle levels. This facilitates deep convection, leading to more extreme rainfall during heavy seasons. Compared with Eulerian moisture tagging method, Lagrangian backward trajectory method underestimated contribution of AM moisture, due to higher precipitation efficiency at higher altitudes, resulting from stronger convection and ascent accompanied with more precipitation and rainout in the upstream AM regions. The study highlights importance of AM moisture for extreme Meiyu-Baiu rainfall in East Asia. The findings providing valuable insights into understanding the interannual variability of water cycle in East Asia, as well as to improving seasonal forecasts and near-future predictions of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall.
{"title":"Interannual variability of moisture sources and isotopic composition of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall in southwestern Japan: Importance of Asian monsoon moisture for extreme rainfall events","authors":"Xiaoyang Li , Ryuichi Kawamura , Kimpei Ichiyanagi , Kei Yoshimura","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100754","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100754","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The interannual variability of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall has amplified in recent decades. Observational and modeling efforts have revealed large-scale circulations could affect variability of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall by altering moisture sources and transport mechanisms. However, the contributions and thermodynamic processes of major moisture sources, along with their interannual variability, remain unclear. To better understand the underlying atmospheric processes responsible for interannual variability of Meiy-Baiu rainfall, we utilized an isotopic regional spectral model to investigate the moisture sources and isotopic composition of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall in southwestern Japan from 2004 to 2023. Asian Monsoon (AM) moisture in middle levels contributed more (51.4%) rainfall with lower <em>δ</em><sup>2</sup>H and higher d-excess in heavy Meiyu-Baiu seasons. Extreme rainfall events showed lower <em>δ</em><sup>2</sup>H and higher d-excess with more contribution (57.8%) from AM moisture at middle levels with high precipitation efficiency. Enhanced warm AM moisture feeds the condensation process and enhances atmospheric instability in the middle levels. This facilitates deep convection, leading to more extreme rainfall during heavy seasons. Compared with Eulerian moisture tagging method, Lagrangian backward trajectory method underestimated contribution of AM moisture, due to higher precipitation efficiency at higher altitudes, resulting from stronger convection and ascent accompanied with more precipitation and rainout in the upstream AM regions. The study highlights importance of AM moisture for extreme Meiyu-Baiu rainfall in East Asia. The findings providing valuable insights into understanding the interannual variability of water cycle in East Asia, as well as to improving seasonal forecasts and near-future predictions of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100754"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143509615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
From July 29th to August 2nd, 2023, an exceptional precipitation event, referred as 237HRE, struck North China, causing widespread flooding in the Haihe River basin. Utilizing reanalysis data and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, this study delves into the reasons behind the unusual westward extension and northward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), as well as the extreme precipitation during 237HRE. Our findings indicate that during 237HRE, the WPSH underwent a significant anomalous westward extension and northward shift, forming a stable and enduring high-pressure barrier. This barrier caused the typhoon's residual vortex and water vapor transport to stagnate in North China, thereby creating the conditions for this extreme precipitation event.
The diagnostics reveal that the positive temperature anomaly over the Mongolian Plateau intensified local temperature advection, contributing to the enhancement and northwestward extension of the WPSH. This mechanism has been thoroughly validated using the Interactive Global Grand Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset, that better forecasts of 237HRE usually benefited from better forecasts of the WPSH. Additionally, WRF sensitivity experiments further support this mechanism, demonstrating that when the positive temperature anomalies are weakened, the WPSH retreats eastward and weakens considerably, as well as the extreme event. In particular, the typhoon residual vortex moves to the southeast at an increased speed with the influence of steering currents. Under these atmospheric circulation configurations, the moisture transport pathway also shifts eastward, altering its relative relationship with the Taihang Mountains, leading to rainfall patterns expanding eastward and the intensity weakening in North China. These findings highlight the crucial role of local temperature anomalies over Mongolia in modulating the position of WPSH, which is essential for understanding and predicting the extreme precipitation events in North China.
{"title":"Impacts of the local temperature anomalies over Mongolian Plateau on heavy rainfall events in north China during July 2023","authors":"Yunchang Cao , Ling Zhang , Haijun Zhao , Zhun Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100758","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100758","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>From July 29th to August 2nd, 2023, an exceptional precipitation event, referred as 237HRE, struck North China, causing widespread flooding in the Haihe River basin. Utilizing reanalysis data and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, this study delves into the reasons behind the unusual westward extension and northward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), as well as the extreme precipitation during 237HRE. Our findings indicate that during 237HRE, the WPSH underwent a significant anomalous westward extension and northward shift, forming a stable and enduring high-pressure barrier. This barrier caused the typhoon's residual vortex and water vapor transport to stagnate in North China, thereby creating the conditions for this extreme precipitation event.</div><div>The diagnostics reveal that the positive temperature anomaly over the Mongolian Plateau intensified local temperature advection, contributing to the enhancement and northwestward extension of the WPSH. This mechanism has been thoroughly validated using the Interactive Global Grand Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset, that better forecasts of 237HRE usually benefited from better forecasts of the WPSH. Additionally, WRF sensitivity experiments further support this mechanism, demonstrating that when the positive temperature anomalies are weakened, the WPSH retreats eastward and weakens considerably, as well as the extreme event. In particular, the typhoon residual vortex moves to the southeast at an increased speed with the influence of steering currents. Under these atmospheric circulation configurations, the moisture transport pathway also shifts eastward, altering its relative relationship with the Taihang Mountains, leading to rainfall patterns expanding eastward and the intensity weakening in North China. These findings highlight the crucial role of local temperature anomalies over Mongolia in modulating the position of WPSH, which is essential for understanding and predicting the extreme precipitation events in North China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100758"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-20DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100757
Yuanlin Wang , Yajuan Song , Ying Bao , Chan Joo Jang , Zhenya Song
In recent years, the frequent occurrence of marine heatwaves (MHWs) has affected the ecological environment and caused considerable socioeconomic impact. Consequently, MHWs prediction has received increasing attention. This study aims to evaluate the short-term (months to interannual timescales) MHWs prediction skill of the First Institute of Oceanography-Climate Prediction System version 2.0 (FIO-CPS v2.0) by using three statistical metrics including symmetric extremal dependence index (SEDI), forecast accuracy (FA), and Brier skill score (BSS). The results revealed that FIO-CPS v2.0 can better predict MHWs in tropical regions, especially in the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean, in which the SEDI, FA, and BSS values reached 0.73, 0.92, and 0.27 at the 1-month lead time, respectively. However, the MHWs prediction ability of FIO-CPS v2.0 has spring prediction barriers owing to the driving factors of ENSO. Moreover, further analysis revealed a definite relationship between the ability to predict MHWs and the ability to predict MHWs duration. The prediction skill of FIO-CPS v2.0 appears to be better for long-duration MHWs than for short-duration MHWs. Under the influence of global warming, FIO-CPS v2.0 can reproduce the increase in MHWs duration observed in recent years, and the prediction skill of some regions has been relatively high in the last 15 years. This study deepens the understanding of the prediction ability of FIO-CPS v2.0, and provides an important reference for the application of short-term prediction of MHWs.
{"title":"Assessment of the marine heatwaves prediction performance of the short-term climate prediction system FIO-CPS v2.0","authors":"Yuanlin Wang , Yajuan Song , Ying Bao , Chan Joo Jang , Zhenya Song","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100757","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100757","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, the frequent occurrence of marine heatwaves (MHWs) has affected the ecological environment and caused considerable socioeconomic impact. Consequently, MHWs prediction has received increasing attention. This study aims to evaluate the short-term (months to interannual timescales) MHWs prediction skill of the First Institute of Oceanography-Climate Prediction System version 2.0 (FIO-CPS v2.0) by using three statistical metrics including symmetric extremal dependence index (SEDI), forecast accuracy (FA), and Brier skill score (BSS). The results revealed that FIO-CPS v2.0 can better predict MHWs in tropical regions, especially in the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean, in which the SEDI, FA, and BSS values reached 0.73, 0.92, and 0.27 at the 1-month lead time, respectively. However, the MHWs prediction ability of FIO-CPS v2.0 has spring prediction barriers owing to the driving factors of ENSO. Moreover, further analysis revealed a definite relationship between the ability to predict MHWs and the ability to predict MHWs duration. The prediction skill of FIO-CPS v2.0 appears to be better for long-duration MHWs than for short-duration MHWs. Under the influence of global warming, FIO-CPS v2.0 can reproduce the increase in MHWs duration observed in recent years, and the prediction skill of some regions has been relatively high in the last 15 years. This study deepens the understanding of the prediction ability of FIO-CPS v2.0, and provides an important reference for the application of short-term prediction of MHWs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100757"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143474282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-17DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100756
Albenis Pérez-Alarcón , Marta Vázquez , Alexandre M. Ramos , Raquel Nieto , Joaquim G. Pinto , Luis Gimeno
Compound drought and heat wave events (CDHWs) are weather and climate hazards whose frequency is increasing in many regions across the globe. Here, we applied a novel Lagrangian atmospheric moisture and heat tracking framework to the outputs of the Lagrangian FLEXPART model driven by the ERA5 reanalysis to quantify the moisture and sensible heat flux anomalies for CDHWs occurred in the Iberian Peninsula in the extended summer (May–October) from 1991 to 2022. CDHWs are identified based on the 95th percentile of daily maximum and minimum temperatures and the self-calibrating Effective Drought Index. The Lagrangian framework is then applied to the top 20 CDHWs affecting more than 50% of continental Iberian Peninsula. Our analysis reveals that these events endure on average 10.35 days, with 2022 achieving the highest number of days (46 days) under dry and hot conditions. CDHW events are generally associated with blocking situations and high-pressure systems, whose effects can be amplified by the local land-atmosphere feedback. The results indicate that the Iberian Peninsula itself is the principal moisture source for the low summertime precipitation, followed by the North Atlantic Ocean corridor and the western Mediterranean Sea, but their total moisture contribution decreases by about 56% during the CDHWs. Moreover, the sensible heat sources pattern exhibits a local-to-regional origin, with ∼35% above the climatological value during the dry and hot events. Overall, this study provides new insight into the underlying mechanisms of CDHWs, which could be useful for helping in understanding these events in the context of global warming.
{"title":"Quantifying moisture and sensible heat flux anomalies for compound drought and heat wave events in the Iberian Peninsula","authors":"Albenis Pérez-Alarcón , Marta Vázquez , Alexandre M. Ramos , Raquel Nieto , Joaquim G. Pinto , Luis Gimeno","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100756","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100756","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound drought and heat wave events (CDHWs) are weather and climate hazards whose frequency is increasing in many regions across the globe. Here, we applied a novel Lagrangian atmospheric moisture and heat tracking framework to the outputs of the Lagrangian FLEXPART model driven by the ERA5 reanalysis to quantify the moisture and sensible heat flux anomalies for CDHWs occurred in the Iberian Peninsula in the extended summer (May–October) from 1991 to 2022. CDHWs are identified based on the 95th percentile of daily maximum and minimum temperatures and the self-calibrating Effective Drought Index. The Lagrangian framework is then applied to the top 20 CDHWs affecting more than 50% of continental Iberian Peninsula. Our analysis reveals that these events endure on average 10.35 days, with 2022 achieving the highest number of days (46 days) under dry and hot conditions. CDHW events are generally associated with blocking situations and high-pressure systems, whose effects can be amplified by the local land-atmosphere feedback. The results indicate that the Iberian Peninsula itself is the principal moisture source for the low summertime precipitation, followed by the North Atlantic Ocean corridor and the western Mediterranean Sea, but their total moisture contribution decreases by about 56% during the CDHWs. Moreover, the sensible heat sources pattern exhibits a local-to-regional origin, with ∼35% above the climatological value during the dry and hot events. Overall, this study provides new insight into the underlying mechanisms of CDHWs, which could be useful for helping in understanding these events in the context of global warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100756"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143471237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-17DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100755
Akash Pathaikara , Minkyu Lee , Seung-Ki Min , Soon-Il An , M.K. Roxy , K.P. Sooraj
Global warming and its implications for extreme events are important subjects of discussion worldwide. This study analyzes the changes in intense tropical cyclone (INT TC) activities over the Arabian Sea Basin (ARB) from 1981 to 2020 during the October–November season, along with its connection to the rise in thermal energy stored in the upper ocean and column-averaged atmospheric instability of the troposphere. The observations revealed that the frequency and intensity of TCs significantly increased owing to enhanced tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) and moist static energy (MSE), as eventually linked to the rise in sea surface temperature (SST). The increased availability of thermal energy in the ocean and the enhanced deep convection in the atmosphere make ARB more conducive to INT TCs. To quantify the human contribution to these observed changes, we employed a comparative analysis of the responses of environmental variables to individual forcing factors—greenhouse gas (GHG), aerosols, natural (solar and volcanic activities), and combined forcing of all these (ALL)—using CMIP6 multi-model simulations. The results bring the anthropogenic GHG forcing to the fore as an emerging driver in contributing to the increasing trends in SST, MSE, and TCHP, with no other individual forcing significantly accounting for the increasing trend in these background variables. Additionally, this human-induced warming increased the area enclosed by the threshold value of TCHP (70 kJ cm−2) and SST (28 °C) in the ARB, and hence made the ARB conducive to the genesis of INT TCs. Considering the large population in the coastal regions in the ARB and casualties related to historical TC disasters, the generation of more violent TCs in the ARB requires urgent attention. The substantial influence of anthropogenic GHG emissions on the increased activity of INT TCs over the ARB mandates better planning of climate change mitigation strategies.
{"title":"Human contribution to atmosphere-ocean thermodynamic factors affecting the intense tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea during the post-monsoon season","authors":"Akash Pathaikara , Minkyu Lee , Seung-Ki Min , Soon-Il An , M.K. Roxy , K.P. Sooraj","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100755","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100755","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming and its implications for extreme events are important subjects of discussion worldwide. This study analyzes the changes in intense tropical cyclone (INT TC) activities over the Arabian Sea Basin (ARB) from 1981 to 2020 during the October–November season, along with its connection to the rise in thermal energy stored in the upper ocean and column-averaged atmospheric instability of the troposphere. The observations revealed that the frequency and intensity of TCs significantly increased owing to enhanced tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) and moist static energy (MSE), as eventually linked to the rise in sea surface temperature (SST). The increased availability of thermal energy in the ocean and the enhanced deep convection in the atmosphere make ARB more conducive to INT TCs. To quantify the human contribution to these observed changes, we employed a comparative analysis of the responses of environmental variables to individual forcing factors—greenhouse gas (GHG), aerosols, natural (solar and volcanic activities), and combined forcing of all these (ALL)—using CMIP6 multi-model simulations. The results bring the anthropogenic GHG forcing to the fore as an emerging driver in contributing to the increasing trends in SST, MSE, and TCHP, with no other individual forcing significantly accounting for the increasing trend in these background variables. Additionally, this human-induced warming increased the area enclosed by the threshold value of TCHP (70 kJ cm<sup>−2</sup>) and SST (28 °C) in the ARB, and hence made the ARB conducive to the genesis of INT TCs. Considering the large population in the coastal regions in the ARB and casualties related to historical TC disasters, the generation of more violent TCs in the ARB requires urgent attention. The substantial influence of anthropogenic GHG emissions on the increased activity of INT TCs over the ARB mandates better planning of climate change mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100755"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-16DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100751
Yan He , Zixuan Zhou , Eun-Soon Im , Hyun-Han Kwon
This study investigates potential wildfire risks across different global warming scenarios through a comparative analysis of two prominent fire weather indices: the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Index (FWI), leveraging the latest multi-model projections from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Utilizing the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and the Shapley value, we identify the impacts of meteorological variables on fire weather danger as represented by FFDI and FWI. Our findings reveal that under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5–8.5 high-emission scenario, both FFDI and FWI project significant intensification of fire weather, particularly in historically recognized high-risk hotspots, demonstrating robust inter-model consistency. Notably, the future projections of FFDI indicate the likely occurrence of wildfires with unprecedented severity. The comparative analysis using Shapley values highlights substantial regional and index-specific variations in the contribution of meteorological input variables to fire weather simulations. While these global patterns are generally retained as global warming leads to a systematic reinforcement of all variables, in-depth regional scale analyses further uncover a stark contrast of dominant factors controlling FFDI and FWI. These findings stimulate discussion on the potential adaptability and discrepancies of empirically derived fire models, highlighting the need for future research to advance fire weather modeling with enhanced flexibility and multi-factor consideration.
{"title":"Wildfire risk in a changing climate: Evaluating fire weather indices and their global patterns with CMIP6 multi-model projections","authors":"Yan He , Zixuan Zhou , Eun-Soon Im , Hyun-Han Kwon","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100751","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100751","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates potential wildfire risks across different global warming scenarios through a comparative analysis of two prominent fire weather indices: the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Index (FWI), leveraging the latest multi-model projections from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Utilizing the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and the Shapley value, we identify the impacts of meteorological variables on fire weather danger as represented by FFDI and FWI. Our findings reveal that under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5–8.5 high-emission scenario, both FFDI and FWI project significant intensification of fire weather, particularly in historically recognized high-risk hotspots, demonstrating robust inter-model consistency. Notably, the future projections of FFDI indicate the likely occurrence of wildfires with unprecedented severity. The comparative analysis using Shapley values highlights substantial regional and index-specific variations in the contribution of meteorological input variables to fire weather simulations. While these global patterns are generally retained as global warming leads to a systematic reinforcement of all variables, in-depth regional scale analyses further uncover a stark contrast of dominant factors controlling FFDI and FWI. These findings stimulate discussion on the potential adaptability and discrepancies of empirically derived fire models, highlighting the need for future research to advance fire weather modeling with enhanced flexibility and multi-factor consideration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100751"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-15DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100752
Daniel Berhanu , Tena Alamirew , Woldeamlak Bewket , Temesgen Gashaw Tarkegn , Gete Zeleke , Amare Haileslassie , Greg O'Donnell , Claire L. Walsh , Solomon Gebrehiwot
Historically, Ethiopia has experienced recurrent droughts and floods, which may intensify due to climate change. This study has evaluated the performance of 45 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating ten extreme precipitation indices against corresponding indices from the Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) during short rainy (February–May, FMAM) and main rainy (June–September, JJAS) seasons for the period 1981–2014 over Ethiopia. Ensemble mean of the top-ranking models are also evaluated against ENACTS in reproducing extreme indices over five Agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of the country. The Taylor Skill Score (TSS) was used to rank the performance of the individual CMIP6 models for JJAS and FMAM seasons with respect to ENACTS while Comprehensive Rating Metrics (RM) were used to compute the overall ranks of the models. Our results show that most CMIP6 models reasonably captured the spatial distribution of the seasonal extreme precipitation indices even though they could not reproduce the magnitude of indices, especially in the highland and high rainfall areas of the country such as Northwest and west parts of the country. However, the biases in lowland and low rainfall regions, such as the eastern and northeastern parts of the country, are smaller compared to other areas. More than 30 CMIP6 models underestimated the extreme indices with the exception of consecutive wet days which is grossly overestimated in the highland and high rainfall areas specifically in western parts of the country. Additionally, EnseMean in the tropical and desert AEZs performs particularly better in simulating extreme indices compared to other AEZs. The ensemble mean of the top-ranking models (EnseMean) generally outperformed both individual models and ensemble of all models in the representation of observed extreme indices across all metrics and seasons. Moreover, the performance of individual models is subject to variation based on the season, and the selected extreme indices. It is also noteworthy that their performance is relatively less influenced by horizontal resolution. Further evaluation, focusing on teleconnections such as ENSO and IOD, is a crucial next step for evaluating models and creating a sub-ensemble.
{"title":"Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating seasonal extreme precipitation over Ethiopia","authors":"Daniel Berhanu , Tena Alamirew , Woldeamlak Bewket , Temesgen Gashaw Tarkegn , Gete Zeleke , Amare Haileslassie , Greg O'Donnell , Claire L. Walsh , Solomon Gebrehiwot","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100752","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100752","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Historically, Ethiopia has experienced recurrent droughts and floods, which may intensify due to climate change. This study has evaluated the performance of 45 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating ten extreme precipitation indices against corresponding indices from the Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) during short rainy (February–May, FMAM) and main rainy (June–September, JJAS) seasons for the period 1981–2014 over Ethiopia. Ensemble mean of the top-ranking models are also evaluated against ENACTS in reproducing extreme indices over five Agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of the country. The Taylor Skill Score (TSS) was used to rank the performance of the individual CMIP6 models for JJAS and FMAM seasons with respect to ENACTS while Comprehensive Rating Metrics (RM) were used to compute the overall ranks of the models. Our results show that most CMIP6 models reasonably captured the spatial distribution of the seasonal extreme precipitation indices even though they could not reproduce the magnitude of indices, especially in the highland and high rainfall areas of the country such as Northwest and west parts of the country. However, the biases in lowland and low rainfall regions, such as the eastern and northeastern parts of the country, are smaller compared to other areas. More than 30 CMIP6 models underestimated the extreme indices with the exception of consecutive wet days which is grossly overestimated in the highland and high rainfall areas specifically in western parts of the country. Additionally, EnseMean in the tropical and desert AEZs performs particularly better in simulating extreme indices compared to other AEZs. The ensemble mean of the top-ranking models (EnseMean) generally outperformed both individual models and ensemble of all models in the representation of observed extreme indices across all metrics and seasons. Moreover, the performance of individual models is subject to variation based on the season, and the selected extreme indices. It is also noteworthy that their performance is relatively less influenced by horizontal resolution. Further evaluation, focusing on teleconnections such as ENSO and IOD, is a crucial next step for evaluating models and creating a sub-ensemble.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100752"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143430057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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