Psychological Biases and Democratic Anxiety: A Comment on Little and Meng (2023)

Daniel Treisman
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Abstract

In their timely article, Andrew Little and Anne Meng make an important point. Despite widespread alarm over democratic backsliding, objective evidence suggests that the scale of the phenomenon is much more limited than many seem to think. Recent power holders around the world have not been entrenching themselves more effectively than in the past. Incumbents continue to lose elections about as often as they used to, and those who win have not been doing so by larger margins. Opposition parties are allowed to compete about as frequently today as 10 or 20 years ago. Moreover, there has been no increase in leaders’ ability to evade term limits.
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心理偏差与民主焦虑:对利特尔和孟的评论(2023)
安德鲁-利特尔(Andrew Little)和安妮-孟(Anne Meng)在他们及时发表的文章中提出了一个重要观点。尽管人们普遍对民主倒退感到震惊,但客观证据表明,这种现象的规模比许多人想象的要有限得多。世界各地最近的掌权者并没有比过去更有效地巩固自己的地位。现任者在选举中落败的次数仍然和过去一样频繁,而那些获胜者也没有以更大的优势获胜。今天,反对党获准参与竞争的频率与 10 年或 20 年前差不多。此外,领导人逃避任期限制的能力并没有增强。
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