Evolutionary dynamics of the travel mode choice behavior based on the replicator-mutator model

Abstract

In this paper, we use the evolution dynamics of the replicator-mutator equation to understand people's travel mode choices considering the traveler's bounded rationality. We define the notation of choice utility and introduce a novel choice model for the evolutionary dynamics of travel mode choice behavior. The choice utility can be calculated from the generalized travel cost, including direct and indirect economic costs (i.e., time and comfort costs, etc.). Taking Beijing traffic data as an example, this paper studies the evolution process of travelers' behavior and analyzes the impact of mutation parameters, travel distance, direct cost and comfort cost on travel mode selection behavior, the simulation results show some strategies to adjust the travel mode selection probability. This study can provide a theoretical reference for adjusting the urban travel distribution structure and optimizing the travel network.