Numerical simulation and projection of wind resources in the northern South China Sea

Abstract

High-resolution assessment of future wind resources is crucial for formulating appropriate energy strategies. However, the response of offshore wind energy to changing climate remains inconclusive. This study uses bias-corrected CMIP6 and time-varying sea surface temperature data to drive the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and project future changes in wind energy resources in the northern South China Sea (SCS) under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The findings indicate that wind resources in the waters north of 18°N in the northern SCS generally show an increased change, with greater wind resources in 2100 than in 2050. The SSP5–8.5 scenario exhibits a more significant increase than the SSP2–4.5 scenario. The future wind energy changes in the western and eastern nearshore waters of Guangdong, where numerous offshore wind power plants are currently established, are largely consistent with the overall change in the northern SCS. Nevertheless, there may be a decreased change in future wind resources in the central and eastern regions of the SCS.