Building Bridges to Peace: A Quantitative Evaluation of Power-Sharing Agreements

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Economic Policy Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI:10.1093/epolic/eiae010
Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh
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Abstract

Power-sharing agreements are used as a tool to reduce political violence in regions of conflict, but agreements are often followed by violence. This is due to the fact that such agreements are introduced during periods of political violence when a country is inside the conflict trap, which makes it difficult to distinguish the effect of the agreement from the political context that generates persistent political violence. In this study we match on pre-agreement conflict risk to estimate the effects of power-sharing agreements on violence using a difference-in-difference method. The results show that violence falls immediately after an agreement, with the effects strengthening over time. Comprehensive agreements tend to be particularly successful. We show that broader institutional changes that have their nucleus in the agreements are crucial elements explaining these large changes.
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架起通往和平的桥梁:权力分享协议的定量评估
在冲突地区,权力分享协议被用作减少政治暴力的工具,但协议之后往往会出现暴力。这是由于此类协议是在政治暴力时期引入的,当时一个国家正处于冲突陷阱之中,这就很难将协议的效果与产生持续政治暴力的政治环境区分开来。在本研究中,我们采用差分法匹配协议前的冲突风险来估计权力分享协议对暴力的影响。结果表明,协议签订后暴力事件立即减少,而且随着时间的推移,效果会逐渐增强。全面协议往往特别成功。我们表明,以协议为核心的更广泛的制度变革是解释这些巨大变化的关键因素。
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来源期刊
Economic Policy
Economic Policy ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Economic Policy provides timely and authoritative analyses of the choices confronting policymakers. The subject matter ranges from the study of how individual markets can and should work to the broadest interactions in the world economy. Economic Policy features: Analysis of key issues as they emerge Views of top international economists Frontier thinking without technical jargon Wide-reaching coverage of worldwide policy debate
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