Coal crisis in China: development, mechanism, causes and possible consequences

Abstract

This article analyzes the dynamics of coal prices and systemic changes in the coal market in the PRC, revealing the internal Chinese mechanism of the coal crisis that broke out in the PRC in 2020. The data studied and the conclusions obtained in the article refute the widely held view in expert circles, according to which the cause of the coal crisis in China was the rejection of Australian coal. The study was carried out by analyzing a data array on the dynamics of changes in the price of coal for different types of coal and for different regions and provinces of China. In particular, the article is based on data on the dynamics of coal prices in Shaanxi and Hubei. The results of this research provide useful insight into both the nature of the coal crisis and the patterns of the system of formation of coal prices in the PRC, partially touching on the issue of the integrity of the Chinese coal market. The statistical data referring to the coal prices is viewed through the prism of the concept of a “multi-track” pricing system put forward by M. V. Karpov and, in general, confirms fruitfulness and significance of his theory. Also, the article, based on data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, shows the commercial practical significance of the findings and the importance of having up-to-date information data on dynamics of coal prices in China.