Maritime supply chain risk sentiment and the korea trade volume: A news big-data analysis perspective

Abstract

This study aims to develop an index for assessing Maritime Supply Chain Risks (MSCRs) capable of preemptively detecting potential crises in the container market and validating the predictive power with Korean container volumes. By employing Lexicon-based text analysis, we scrutinized 174,271 headlines from key maritime and port news from 2004 to 2023 to formulate MSCRs index. Further, the application of a VAR model elucidates the maritime container supply chain market's response to sentiment shocks. Our findings reveal that an integrative sentiment index (MSCRs), considering both maritime and port sectors, possesses higher predictive accuracy than when these sectors are examined individually. Although the shock response of the index is temporary, it exerts a more gradual impact on transshipment throughput.The results of this study underscore the substantial influence of sentiment shocks stemming from maritime transportation news. The constructed MSCRs index emerges as a significant predictive variable for the Korean maritime transportation market. This sentiment index is anticipated to assist government, port authorities, and shipping companies in policy and managerial decision-making, offering enhanced foresight and response mechanisms to navigate and mitigate potential crises.