Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics最新文献

A comprehensive review of competency models for 3PL operations managers: Bibliometric and systematic analysis 第三方物流运营经理胜任力模型的综合评价：文献计量学和系统分析

IF 3.7 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2025.11.001

Safae Bakhouch, Brahim Benbba

Background

The growing complexity of logistics and supply chain management, particularly in third-party logistics (3PL) providers, highlights the need for effective competency models tailored to evolving operational demands. Current frameworks often lack the technical depth and global applicability required for this context.

Approach

This study combines a bibliometric analysis and a systematic literature review of publications from 1995 to 2024 to assess existing competency frameworks in the logistics sector. Key themes such as digitalization, sustainability, performance, and strategic management were identified. The review specifically focused on the role of logistics operations managers in 3PL environments.

Findings

The analysis highlighted the importance of continuous learning and digital competencies such as IoT, AI, and big data analytics for logistics professionals. However, most existing competency models overlook the specific requirements and practical realities of 3PL operations managers. This gap underscores the need for more context-sensitive and field-oriented frameworks in logistics competency research.

Contribution

In response, this study proposes an integrative, multidimensional competency framework of 3 PL operations manager combining technical, managerial, transversal and linguistics competencies. Designed to be scalable and aligned with global logistics standards, the model provides a robust foundation for competency-based human capital strategies in 3PL and global supply chains.

物流和供应链管理日益复杂，特别是在第三方物流（3PL）提供商中，突出了针对不断变化的运营需求量身定制的有效能力模型的必要性。当前的框架往往缺乏这种情况所需的技术深度和全球适用性。方法本研究结合文献计量分析和1995年至2024年出版物的系统文献综述，以评估物流部门现有的能力框架。确定了数字化、可持续性、绩效和战略管理等关键主题。该审查特别侧重于物流运营经理在第三方物流环境中的作用。该分析强调了持续学习和数字能力（如物联网、人工智能和大数据分析）对物流专业人员的重要性。然而，大多数现有的胜任力模型忽视了第三方物流运营经理的具体要求和实际情况。这一差距强调了在物流能力研究中需要更多的上下文敏感和面向领域的框架。为此，本研究提出了一个综合的、多维的第三方物流运营经理能力框架，包括技术、管理、横向和语言能力。该模型旨在可扩展并与全球物流标准保持一致，为第三方物流和全球供应链中基于能力的人力资本战略提供了坚实的基础。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of logistics performance and green logistics performance on intra-ASEAN goods exports 物流绩效和绿色物流绩效对东盟内部货物出口的影响

IF 3.7 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2025.11.003

Huong Vu Thi Thu, Thuy Nguyen Thu

This study utilizes the gravity model of international trade to analyze the effects of logistics performance (LPI) and green logistics performance (GLPI) on intra-regional export value among the 10 ASEAN member states during the 2010–2018 period. The findings reveal that: (i) The LPI of both exporting and importing countries exerts a positive influence on export values, with the export nation's role being more pronounced. This underscores the importance of reducing transportation costs and promoting the competitiveness of goods; (ii) The GLPI of exporting countries does not have a noticeable impact on the region’s overall export values but positively affects exports in countries with high GLPI scores. This suggests the need for promoting green logistics in countries with lower GLPI performance; (iii) The GLPI of importing countries has a negative effect, indicating that green regulations may pose barriers to intra-regional exports. The study recommends that ASEAN governments establish legal frameworks and policies to promote green logistics, such as tax incentives, financial support, and investments in modern infrastructure. Furthermore, member states should enhance regional cooperation on environmental standards and minimize green trade barriers, thereby fostering sustainable commerce.

本研究利用国际贸易引力模型，分析了2010-2018年期间东盟10个成员国的物流绩效（LPI）和绿色物流绩效（GLPI）对区域内出口价值的影响。调查结果显示：(i)出口国和进口国的低物价指数对出口值都有积极影响，其中出口国的作用更为明显。这强调了降低运输成本和促进货物竞争力的重要性；出口国的全球商品价格指数对该区域的总出口值没有显著影响，但对全球商品价格指数得分高的国家的出口有积极影响。这表明需要在GLPI表现较低的国家推广绿色物流；进口国的GLPI有负面影响，表明绿色条例可能对区域内出口构成障碍。该研究建议东盟各国政府建立促进绿色物流的法律框架和政策，如税收优惠、财政支持和对现代基础设施的投资。成员国应加强区域环境标准合作，尽量减少绿色贸易壁垒，促进可持续商业发展。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the impact of digital transformation on port efficiency and market positioning in Southeast Asia container port system 评估数字化转型对东南亚集装箱港口系统港口效率和市场定位的影响

IF 3.7 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2025.11.002

Phong Nha Nguyen , Thi Yen Pham

This study investigates how digital transformation influences the performance and competitiveness of container ports in Southeast Asia. A Digital Transformation Index was developed to measure the digital maturity of ten major ports across four dimensions: smart infrastructure, integration, governance, and cybersecurity. Combining shift-share analysis and a Super Efficiency DEA model, the study reveals strong correlations between digital maturity and both operational efficiency (r = 0.83) and market share dynamics (r = 0.69). Cluster analysis identifies three port groups based on digital advancement and performance outcomes, highlighting a persistent digital divide in the region. The originality of this research lies in its integrated empirical framework that links digital readiness to strategic port performance using multidimensional indicators. The findings provide practical insights for policymakers and port authorities seeking to enhance competitiveness through targeted digital investment and governance reforms, while contributing new empirical evidence to the literature on smart port development in emerging maritime economies.

本研究探讨数字化转型如何影响东南亚集装箱港口的绩效和竞争力。制定了数字化转型指数，从智能基础设施、集成、治理和网络安全四个方面衡量十个主要港口的数字化成熟度。结合shift-share分析和Super Efficiency DEA模型，研究发现数字化成熟度与运营效率（r = 0.83）和市场份额动态（r = 0.69）之间存在很强的相关性。聚类分析根据数字进步和性能结果确定了三个端口组，突出了该地区持续存在的数字鸿沟。本研究的独创性在于其综合实证框架，该框架使用多维指标将数字化准备与战略性港口绩效联系起来。研究结果为寻求通过有针对性的数字投资和治理改革提高竞争力的政策制定者和港口当局提供了实际见解，同时为新兴海洋经济体智能港口发展的文献提供了新的经验证据。

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引用次数: 0

Identifying competitive position for sixteen major Asia-Pacific hubs after the COVID-19 pandemic 确定新冠肺炎大流行后亚太16个主要枢纽的竞争地位

IF 3.7 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2025.12.001

Yu-Chun Chang, Hsi-Tung Yu

The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly disrupted global aviation networks, with long-haul connectivity particularly affected. This study assesses the evolving competitive positions of sixteen major hub airports in the Asia-Pacific region by analyzing their transfer-connectivity performance before and after the pandemic. Using flight schedule data from the Innovata Worldwide Flight Schedules Database, three key indicators are employed: Quantity of Viable Connections (QVC), Hub Connectivity Performance Index (HCPI), and Hub Efficiency Index (HEI). Two reference weeks—September 2019 and September 2023—were selected to represent pre- and post-pandemic conditions. The results show that Northeast Asian hubs such as Seoul Incheon (ICN), Tokyo Narita (NRT), and Taipei Taoyuan (TPE) have retained dominant roles in trans-Pacific connectivity, with ICN ranking first in QVC and TPE leading in both HEI and HCPI. TPE also surpassed Hong Kong International Airport (HKG) in QVC, signaling a strategic shift in hub competitiveness. In contrast, airports in mainland China (PEK, PVG, CAN) and HKG experienced significant declines following the pandemic. As the global aviation sector recovers, airports with lower QVC are encouraged to reinstate suspended routes and explore new market pairings, while those with weaker HCPI or HEI performance should focus on reducing connection times and improving schedule coordination. This study provides empirical insights into the post-COVID restructuring of hub dynamics and offers strategic guidance for policymakers and airport authorities committed to restoring and enhancing connectivity in an increasingly competitive global air transport landscape.

2019冠状病毒病大流行严重扰乱了全球航空网络，长途航线受到的影响尤其严重。本研究通过分析亚太地区16个主要枢纽机场在疫情前后的中转连通性表现，评估了它们不断演变的竞争地位。利用Innovata全球航班时刻表数据库中的航班时刻表数据，采用了三个关键指标：可行连接数量（QVC）、枢纽连接性能指数（HCPI）和枢纽效率指数（HEI）。选择两个参考周（2019年9月和2023年9月）来代表大流行前和大流行后的情况。结果显示，首尔仁川（ICN）、东京成田（NRT）和台北桃园（TPE）等东北亚枢纽在跨太平洋互联互通中保持主导地位，其中ICN在QVC中排名第一，TPE在HEI和HCPI中均排名第一。上海国际机场的QVC也超过了香港国际机场（HKG），标志着枢纽竞争力的战略转变。相比之下，中国大陆机场（北京机场、重庆机场、重庆机场）和香港机场在疫情爆发后出现了大幅下降。随着全球航空业的复苏，QVC较低的机场被鼓励恢复暂停的航线并探索新的市场配对，而HCPI或HEI表现较弱的机场应专注于减少连接时间和改善时间表协调。本研究为新冠肺炎后的枢纽动态重组提供了实证见解，并为致力于在竞争日益激烈的全球航空运输格局中恢复和加强连通性的政策制定者和机场当局提供了战略指导。

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引用次数: 0

Matching logistics capabilities to environmental turbulence: A hybrid Fuzzy CRITIC–TAOV based method 物流能力与环境湍流的匹配：基于模糊临界- taov的混合方法

IF 3.7 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2025.11.004

Sercan Demir , Mehmet Akif Gunduz , Fatih Cura , Beyza Gultekin , Leyla Ozer

Environmental turbulence, which reflects the degree of complexity, volatility, and unpredictability of the external environment, impacts the performance of logistics service providers (LSPs) and has become vital for LSPs in recent years. Managers depend on logistics capabilities to hedge themselves against environmental turbulence. However, most managers are unaware of the relationship between logistics capabilities and different types of environmental turbulence. This study examines the association between logistics capabilities and environmental turbulence (market, competitive, technological, and regulatory) by adopting a hybrid Fuzzy CRITIC & Fuzzy TAOV method, a Multiple Criteria Decision Making setting. Analysis revealed that technological turbulence has the highest objective weight, followed by competitive, market, and regulatory turbulences. The most desired capabilities are flexibility and agility, followed by resilience, responsiveness, sustainability, robustness, and visibility in order to weather the storm of general environmental turbulence. More specifically, flexibility is essential for managing market turbulence. In response to competitive and regulatory volatility, managers must prioritize agility, while technological turbulence necessitates visibility. The proposed framework guides logistics managers in making strategic decisions regarding the relationship between logistics capabilities and environmental turbulence, and it qualifies as the first endeavor to examine the prominence of logistics capabilities with environmental turbulence.

环境动荡反映了外部环境的复杂性、波动性和不可预测性的程度，影响着物流服务提供商（lsp）的绩效，近年来对物流服务提供商（lsp）来说变得至关重要。管理人员依靠物流能力来对冲环境动荡的风险。然而，大多数管理者都没有意识到物流能力与不同类型的环境动荡之间的关系。本研究采用混合模糊CRITIC和模糊TAOV方法、多准则决策设定，探讨物流能力与环境动荡（市场、竞争、技术和监管）之间的关系。分析显示，技术动荡的客观权重最高，其次是竞争、市场和监管动荡。最需要的能力是灵活性和敏捷性，其次是弹性、响应性、可持续性、稳健性和可视性，以便经受一般环境动荡的风暴。更具体地说，灵活性对于管理市场动荡至关重要。为了应对竞争和监管的波动，管理人员必须优先考虑敏捷性，而技术动荡则需要可见性。所提出的框架指导物流管理者就物流能力与环境动荡之间的关系做出战略决策，它有资格作为第一次努力来检验物流能力与环境动荡之间的突出关系。

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引用次数: 0

Advancing freight demand prediction: Unified destination and mode choice models in extra-urban transportation 推进货运需求预测：城市外运输的统一目的地和模式选择模型

IF 3.7 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2025.09.002

Shahriar Afandizadeh , Amin Akhoundi , Hamid Mirzahossein

Freight transportation modeling represents the economic demand for moving goods across spatial networks. Traditional models often treat transportation mode and destination choice as separate processes. This paper introduces an innovative framework that synthesizes a joint choice structure with a novel, supply-chain-based methodology, an approach underutilized in freight modeling. The core methodological innovation is the use of national input-output accounts to identify specific consumer industries, allowing for a more behaviorally-grounded analysis of destination attractiveness for different commodity groups. Using U.S. Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) data, two multinomial logit models were developed: one for destination choice and another for joint destination-mode choice, across three goods categories. This study also provides a direct empirical comparison in the freight context, with results revealing that the integrated model improves prediction accuracy by approximately 7 % compared to destination-only models. The findings confirm the value of this synthesized approach, which provides a more comprehensive and behaviorally sound tool for freight demand estimation.

货运模型代表了跨空间网络运输货物的经济需求。传统模型通常将运输方式和目的地选择视为两个独立的过程。本文介绍了一种创新的框架，该框架将联合选择结构与一种新颖的、基于供应链的方法相结合，这种方法在货运建模中未得到充分利用。方法上的核心创新是使用国家投入产出核算来确定具体的消费行业，从而对不同商品群体的目的地吸引力进行更基于行为的分析。利用美国商品流量调查（CFS）数据，开发了两个多项逻辑模型：一个用于目的地选择，另一个用于联合目的地模式选择，涉及三种商品类别。本研究还提供了货运背景下的直接实证比较，结果表明，与仅考虑目的地的模型相比，综合模型的预测精度提高了约7 %。研究结果证实了这种综合方法的价值，它为货运需求估计提供了一种更全面、行为更合理的工具。

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引用次数: 0

Digital logistics anomaly management systems (DLAMS): A bibliometric analysis and research framework 数字物流异常管理系统：一个文献计量分析与研究框架

IF 3.7 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2025.09.003

Habibi Palippui , Daniel Mohammad Rosyid , Silvianita , Juswan Sade

Digital Logistics Anomaly Management Systems (DLAMS) have become a critical infrastructure in modern supply chain operations, enabling the real-time monitoring and management of anomalies through the integration of technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), machine learning, and big data analytics. This paper presents a structured and systematic bibliometric analysis to trace the evolution of DLAMS research by examining 89 Scopus-indexed articles published between 2009 and 2023. Utilizing VOSviewer and Publish or Perish tools, this study identified eight major thematic clusters, 142 topic interconnections, and the growing importance of intelligent systems in anomaly detection. The findings reveal a significant shift from traditional logistics monitoring to data-driven and technologically advanced frameworks, with recent attention to intrusion detection, medical logistics applications, and cross-disciplinary integration. The analysis also uncovered key research gaps, particularly in real-world implementation and sector-specific applications, while proposing a research framework that connects technical progress with broader academic and policy implications. This study contributes to mapping the intellectual landscape of DLAMS and shapes future research directions in digital logistics anomaly management.

数字物流异常管理系统（drams）已成为现代供应链运营的关键基础设施，通过物联网（IoT）、机器学习和大数据分析等技术的集成，实现对异常的实时监控和管理。本文通过对2009年至2023年间发表的89篇以scopus为索引的论文进行结构化和系统的文献计量分析，以追踪DLAMS研究的演变。利用VOSviewer和Publish or Perish工具，本研究确定了8个主要的主题集群，142个主题互连，以及智能系统在异常检测中的重要性日益增加。调查结果显示，从传统的物流监控到数据驱动和技术先进框架的重大转变，最近关注入侵检测、医疗物流应用和跨学科整合。该分析还揭示了关键的研究差距，特别是在现实世界的实施和特定部门的应用方面，同时提出了一个将技术进步与更广泛的学术和政策影响联系起来的研究框架。本研究有助于绘制数字物流异常管理的知识版图，并塑造未来数字物流异常管理的研究方向。

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引用次数: 0

Block chain ready port terminal operations using distributed ledger 区块链就绪港口终端操作使用分布式账本

IF 3.7 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2025.07.001

David King Boison , Musah Osumanu Doumbia , Ahmed Antwi-Boampong , Frank Senyo Loglo , Ebenezer Malcalm

This study explores the application of blockchain (BC) technology in enhancing terminal operations at West African seaports, with a specific focus on Tema Port in Ghana. The purpose is to address inefficiencies in cargo processing, traceability, and data integrity that often impede port performance. Using a multi-layered qualitative approach, including observation and value stream mapping, the study examines current operational challenges at Tema Port and proposes a BC adoption model tailored to ship operations, quay transfers, yard management, container freight stations, and receipt/delivery processes. The findings suggest that BC technology significantly improves transparency, operational efficiency, and data security across port processes, offering a unified ledger system accessible to all stakeholders. Based on these findings, the study recommends a phased BC implementation, beginning with targeted pilot programs to mitigate technological and infrastructural constraints common in developing regions. Implications for port managers, policymakers, and academics underscore BC’s potential to reduce operational costs, enhance real-time visibility, and improve compliance in port logistics. This study is limited by its focus on terminal operations at a single port; future research could explore BC’s impact on other areas of the maritime supply chain across multiple ports. The originality of this study lies in its contextualized BC model for West African ports, addressing specific challenges faced by developing regions and offering a foundational framework for future BC applications in logistics.

本研究探讨了区块链（BC）技术在西非海港码头运营中的应用，并特别关注加纳的Tema港。目的是解决货物处理、可追溯性和数据完整性方面的低效率问题，这些问题通常会阻碍港口的性能。该研究采用多层定性方法，包括观察和价值流映射，研究了Tema港当前的运营挑战，并提出了针对船舶运营、码头转运、堆场管理、集装箱货运站和接收/交付流程量身定制的BC采用模型。研究结果表明，BC技术显著提高了港口流程的透明度、运营效率和数据安全性，为所有利益相关者提供了一个统一的分类账系统。根据这些发现，该研究建议分阶段实施BC，从有针对性的试点项目开始，以缓解发展中地区常见的技术和基础设施限制。对港口管理者、政策制定者和学者的影响强调了BC在降低运营成本、提高实时可视性和改善港口物流合规性方面的潜力。这项研究的局限性在于它只关注单个港口的终端操作；未来的研究可以探索不列颠哥伦比亚省对跨多个港口的海上供应链的其他领域的影响。本研究的独创性在于其针对西非港口的情境化BC模型，解决了发展中地区面临的具体挑战，并为未来BC在物流中的应用提供了基础框架。

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引用次数: 0

Effect of logistics performance on transport environmental quality: Comparative insight from Sub-Saharan Africa and OECD markets 物流绩效对运输环境质量的影响：来自撒哈拉以南非洲和经合组织市场的比较见解

IF 3.7 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2025.10.001

Francis Kamewor Tetteh , Kwame Owusu Kwateng , Tesfalidet Tukue , John Mensah , Derrick Delali Atiase

The logistics industry is among the top threats to the sustainability despite its valuable contribution to trade and growth. Despite previous efforts on the impact of logistics performance (LP), its role in driving sustainability within the transport sector is less discussed. Also, while it is generally anticipated that the impact of LP may vary depending on the levels of economic development, there has been no empirical study in this regard. This study therefore attempts to bridge these gaps by comparing between less developed economies; Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and developed economies (OECD). Panel dataset between 2007 and 2018 for 24 SSA countries and 34 OECD economies. The Generalized Method of Moments estimators were employed and findings showed a positive effect of logistic efficiency on transport sustainability. The findings revealed no significant variation within the economies. Even though the gravity of the effect remain higher in SSA, LP was found to worsen transport sustainability in both economies. Additionally, we noted only the timeliness of logistics service out of the six (6) sub-dimensions of LP significantly increases CO2 from transport. The findings offers a compelling insight which contradicts conventional wisdom that situations in advanced economies are always highly better. Practically, the findings implies that, regardless of the level of development in the economy, supply chain or logistics activities continue to be far from de-carbonization in both economies. Governments must therefore double efforts towards decarbonizing of modern supply chains though green logistics, if the Net Zero Emission target of 2025 is to be achieved.

尽管物流业对贸易和增长做出了宝贵贡献，但它仍是可持续发展的最大威胁之一。尽管之前对物流绩效（LP）的影响进行了努力，但其在推动运输部门可持续性方面的作用却很少被讨论。此外，虽然普遍预期低生产率的影响可能因经济发展水平而异，但在这方面尚无实证研究。因此，本研究试图通过比较欠发达经济体来弥合这些差距；撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）和发达经济体（OECD）。2007年至2018年，24个SSA国家和34个经合组织经济体的面板数据集。采用广义矩量估计方法，结果表明物流效率对运输可持续性有积极影响。调查结果显示，各经济体内部没有显著差异。尽管这种影响的严重性在SSA中仍然较高，但研究发现，低成本使两个经济体的交通可持续性恶化。此外，我们注意到，在LP的六个子维度中，只有物流服务的及时性显著增加了运输产生的二氧化碳。这些发现提供了一个令人信服的洞见，与传统观念——发达经济体的情况总是好得多——相矛盾。实际上，研究结果表明，无论经济发展水平如何，这两个经济体的供应链或物流活动仍远未实现脱碳。因此，如果要实现2025年的净零排放目标，各国政府必须加倍努力，通过绿色物流实现现代供应链的脱碳。

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引用次数: 0

Logistics scale as trade catalyst: Principal component analysis of China-Korea bilateral trade drivers 物流规模作为贸易催化剂：中韩双边贸易驱动因素的主成分分析

IF 3.7 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2025.09.001

Yue Zhang , Nianjie Shang , Yanting Liu , Chao Zhang , Lu Jin

This study conducts an empirical analysis of the driving factors and development trends of China-Korea bilateral trade from the perspective of logistics, using IBM SPSS Statistics 27 for data processing and modeling. Based on annual panel data from 2013 to 2022, a multidimensional dataset of 18 core economic indicators was constructed, encompassing variables such as import and export volumes, logistics scale, enterprise expenditures, labor structure, exchange rates, and investment. To reduce dimensionality and address multicollinearity, a correlation analysis was first conducted to identify 9 key variables with strong explanatory power. Principal Component Analysis was then applied, extracting five principal components that effectively captured the underlying structure of the dataset. These components were used as independent variables in a principal component regression model to predict the China-Korea bilateral trade volume. Among them, the component representing Korea’s logistics industry scale and transportation efficiency (PC1) had the most significant positive impact on trade, highlighting the critical role of logistics in enhancing trade intensity and sustaining bilateral growth. The regression model exhibited strong goodness-of-fit and low prediction errors, through structural modeling and trend-based forecasting, this study confirms the foundational role of Korea’s logistics system in supporting bilateral trade and provides quantitative insights and policy-oriented recommendations for future China-Korea economic cooperation.

本研究从物流角度对中韩双边贸易的驱动因素和发展趋势进行实证分析，使用IBM SPSS Statistics 27进行数据处理和建模。以2013 - 2022年的年度面板数据为基础，构建了包含进出口规模、物流规模、企业支出、劳动力结构、汇率、投资等18个核心经济指标的多维数据集。为了降低维度和解决多重共线性问题，我们首先进行了相关分析，以确定9个具有强解释力的关键变量。然后应用主成分分析，提取五个主成分，有效地捕获数据集的底层结构。在主成分回归模型中，将这些成分作为自变量来预测中韩双边贸易额。其中，代表韩国物流业规模和运输效率的组成部分（PC1）对贸易的正向影响最为显著，凸显了物流在提高贸易强度和维持双边增长方面的关键作用。回归模型拟合度强，预测误差小，通过结构建模和趋势预测，证实了韩国物流体系在支持双边贸易中的基础性作用，为未来中韩经济合作提供定量见解和政策性建议。

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引用次数: 0