Predicting the cryptocurrency market using social media metrics and search trends during COVID-19

IF 3.7 4区管理学 Q2 BUSINESS Electronic Commerce Research Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI:10.1007/s10660-023-09801-6

Jian Mou, Wenting Liu, Chong Guan, J. Christopher Westland, Jongki Kim

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Bitcoin is one of the most well-known cryptocurrencies worldwide. Recently, as the COVID-19 pandemic raged globally, a new wave of price volatility and interest in Bitcoin was witnessed. Identifying the roles played by different information sources in the emergence and diffusion of content through Internet resources can reveal the influential factors affecting cryptocurrencies’ value. This study aims to reveal the forces behind cryptocurrencies’ monetary value—the market price movements on major exchanges before, during, and post the March 2020, COVID-19 market crash. The daily prices of the two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ether, were obtained from CoinDesk. By integrating Google Trends data, we found that Google searches increase when the number of tweets on COVID-19 soars, with a one-period lag (one day). Furthermore, search trends have a significant impact on cryptocurrencies’ future returns such that increased (decreased) searches for a negative event indicate lower (higher) future cryptocurrency prices.

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在 COVID-19 期间利用社交媒体指标和搜索趋势预测加密货币市场

比特币是全球最知名的加密货币之一。最近，随着 COVID-19 大流行病在全球肆虐，比特币的价格出现了新一轮波动，人们对比特币的兴趣也随之高涨。确定不同信息源在互联网资源内容的出现和传播中所扮演的角色，可以揭示影响加密货币价值的影响因素。本研究旨在揭示加密货币货币价值背后的力量--2020 年 3 月 COVID-19 市场崩溃之前、期间和之后主要交易所的市场价格走势。比特币和以太币这两种最大的加密货币的每日价格均来自 CoinDesk。通过整合谷歌趋势（Google Trends）数据，我们发现，当 COVID-19 的推文数量飙升时，谷歌搜索量也会增加，而且会滞后一个周期（一天）。此外，搜索趋势对加密货币的未来收益也有重大影响，例如，负面事件搜索量的增加（减少）预示着未来加密货币价格的降低（升高）。

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来源期刊

Electronic Commerce Research Multiple-

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

12.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Internet and the World Wide Web have brought a fundamental change in the way that individuals access data, information and services. Individuals have access to vast amounts of data, to experts and services that are not limited in time or space. This has forced business to change the way in which they conduct their commercial transactions with their end customers and with other businesses, resulting in the development of a global market through the Internet. The emergence of the Internet and electronic commerce raises many new research issues. The Electronic Commerce Research journal will serve as a forum for stimulating and disseminating research into all facets of electronic commerce - from research into core enabling technologies to work on assessing and understanding the implications of these technologies on societies, economies, businesses and individuals. The journal concentrates on theoretical as well as empirical research that leads to better understanding of electronic commerce and its implications. Topics covered by the journal include, but are not restricted to the following subjects as they relate to the Internet and electronic commerce: Dissemination of services through the Internet;Intelligent agents technologies and their impact;The global impact of electronic commerce;The economics of electronic commerce;Fraud reduction on the Internet;Mobile electronic commerce;Virtual electronic commerce systems;Application of computer and communication technologies to electronic commerce;Electronic market mechanisms and their impact;Auctioning over the Internet;Business models of Internet based companies;Service creation and provisioning;The job market created by the Internet and electronic commerce;Security, privacy, authorization and authentication of users and transactions on the Internet;Electronic data interc hange over the Internet;Electronic payment systems and electronic funds transfer;The impact of electronic commerce on organizational structures and processes;Supply chain management through the Internet;Marketing on the Internet;User adaptive advertisement;Standards in electronic commerce and their analysis;Metrics, measurement and prediction of user activity;On-line stock markets and financial trading;User devices for accessing the Internet and conducting electronic transactions;Efficient search techniques and engines on the WWW;Web based languages (e.g., HTML, XML, VRML, Java);Multimedia storage and distribution;Internet;Collaborative learning, gaming and work;Presentation page design techniques and tools;Virtual reality on the net and 3D visualization;Browsers and user interfaces;Web site management techniques and tools;Managing middleware to support electronic commerce;Web based education, and training;Electronic journals and publishing on the Internet;Legal issues, taxation and property rights;Modeling and design of networks to support Internet applications;Modeling, design and sizing of web site servers;Reliability of intensive on-line applications;Pervasive devices and pervasive computing in electronic commerce;Workflow for electronic commerce applications;Coordination technologies for electronic commerce;Personalization and mass customization technologies;Marketing and customer relationship management in electronic commerce;Service creation and provisioning. Audience: Academics and professionals involved in electronic commerce research and the application and use of the Internet. Managers, consultants, decision-makers and developers who value the use of electronic com merce research results. Special Issues: Electronic Commerce Research publishes from time to time a special issue of the devoted to a single subject area. If interested in serving as a guest editor for a special issue, please contact the Editor-in-Chief J. Christopher Westland at westland@uic.edu with a proposal for the special issue. Officially cited as: Electron Commer Res