Tropical cyclone trajectory based on satellite remote sensing prediction and time attention mechanism ConvLSTM model

Abstract

The accurate and timely prediction of tropical cyclones is of paramount importance in mitigating the impact of these catastrophic meteorological events. Presently, methods for predicting tropical cyclones based on satellite remote sensing images encounter notable challenges, including the inadequate extraction of three-dimensional spatial features and limitations in long-term forecasting. As a response to these challenges, this study introduces the Temporal Attention Mechanism ConvLSTM (TAM-CL) model, designed to conduct thorough spatiotemporal feature extraction on three-dimensional atmospheric reanalysis data of tropical cyclones. By leveraging ConvLSTM with three-dimensional convolution kernels, our model enhances the extraction of three-dimensional spatiotemporal features. Furthermore, an attention mechanism is integrated to bolster long-term prediction accuracy by emphasizing crucial temporal nodes. In the evaluation of tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts across 24, 48, and 72 h, TAM-CL demonstrates a notable reduction in prediction errors, thereby underscoring its efficacy in forecasting both cyclone tracks and intensities. This contributes to an effective exploration of the application of deep networks in conjunction with atmospheric reanalysis data.