Linked samples and measurement error in historical US census data

IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Explorations in Economic History Pub Date : 2024-02-03 DOI:10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101579
Sam Il Myoung Hwang, Munir Squires
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Abstract

The quality of historical US census data is critical to the performance of linking algorithms. We use genealogical profiles to correct measurement error in census names and ages. Our findings suggest that one in every two records has an error in name or age, and human capital is correlated with lower error rates. While errors in age decline across subsequent census rounds from 1850 to 1930, errors in names do not exhibit such trends. Fixing all transcription errors, hence leaving only those errors made at the time of enumeration, would reduce error rates in names by 41 percent. Correcting all names and ages using genealogical profiles leads to 20%–36% more links and fewer false positives. Reassuringly, we find that reducing such errors has a negligible effect on estimates of intergenerational mobility.

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美国历史人口普查数据中的关联样本和测量误差
美国历史人口普查数据的质量对于连接算法的性能至关重要。我们利用家谱资料来纠正人口普查中姓名和年龄的测量误差。我们的研究结果表明,每两条记录中就有一条存在姓名或年龄错误,而人力资本与较低的错误率相关。从 1850 年到 1930 年的各轮人口普查中,年龄误差都在下降,而姓名误差却没有这种趋势。如果修正所有转录错误,只保留查点时出现的错误,那么姓名错误率将降低 41%。使用家谱档案更正所有姓名和年龄会使链接数增加 20%-36%,误报率降低。令人欣慰的是,我们发现减少这些错误对代际流动性估计的影响微乎其微。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
8.70%
发文量
27
期刊介绍: Explorations in Economic History provides broad coverage of the application of economic analysis to historical episodes. The journal has a tradition of innovative applications of theory and quantitative techniques, and it explores all aspects of economic change, all historical periods, all geographical locations, and all political and social systems. The journal includes papers by economists, economic historians, demographers, geographers, and sociologists. Explorations in Economic History is the only journal where you will find "Essays in Exploration." This unique department alerts economic historians to the potential in a new area of research, surveying the recent literature and then identifying the most promising issues to pursue.
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