{"title":"Difficulties in testing for capital overaccumulation","authors":"Narayana R. Kocherlakota","doi":"10.3982/qe2413","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper reconsiders the question of testing for the presence of Pareto suboptimal capital overaccumulation in overlapping generations economies. The paper allows generation-specific technology shocks to evolve over time according to a stationary Markov chain, and assumes that an econometrician observes a finite sample of aggregate quantities. In this setting, any statistical test of the null hypothesis of capital overaccumulation with size less than one also has zero power against the alternative hypothesis of a dynamically efficient steady state. This result means that the standard assessments of capital overaccumulation based on US aggregate quantity data should be viewed as inconclusive.","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe2413","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This paper reconsiders the question of testing for the presence of Pareto suboptimal capital overaccumulation in overlapping generations economies. The paper allows generation-specific technology shocks to evolve over time according to a stationary Markov chain, and assumes that an econometrician observes a finite sample of aggregate quantities. In this setting, any statistical test of the null hypothesis of capital overaccumulation with size less than one also has zero power against the alternative hypothesis of a dynamically efficient steady state. This result means that the standard assessments of capital overaccumulation based on US aggregate quantity data should be viewed as inconclusive.
期刊介绍：
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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