The Primary Risk Factors for Season-Ending Injuries in Professional Basketball Are Minutes Played Per Game and Later Season Games

Abstract

Purpose

To determine the incidence rates and associated risk factors of season-ending injuries (SEIs) in the National Basketball Association (NBA) from the 2015-20 seasons.

Methods

Publicly available records of active NBA players between the 2015-16 and 2020-21 seasons were reviewed to identify players with an SEI. In this study, SEI was classified as any injury that resulted in failure to return at least 5 games before the end of the team’s game schedule. Injury data from the 2019-20 NBA season, shortened because of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, were omitted. The primary outcome was the incidence of SEIs reported per 1,000 game exposures (GEs). Player demographics, basketball statistics, injury characteristics, and timing of injury were recorded. Secondary analysis, including bivariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression, was performed to investigate factors associated with having an SEI.

Results

In total, 196 players (15.6% of all players) sustained a combined 238 SEIs between the 2015-16 and 2020-21 seasons, indicating a rate of 1.74 SEIs per 1,000 GEs. When characterized by body part, knee injuries were found to be the most frequent SEI, at a rate of 0.47 injuries per 1,000 GEs. Accounting for potential confounders, having an SEI was significantly associated with more minutes per game played (odds ratio, 1.06, 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.01, P < .001).

Conclusions

SEIs occurred in 15.6% of players in this study, with an overall rate of 1.74 SEIs per 1,000 GEs. The most significant risk factor associated with injury was minutes per game. SEI was more likely to occur in the third and fourth quartiles of the NBA season than in the first or second quartile. Level of Evidence: Level III, retrospective comparative prognostic investigation.