Procedures to combine estimators of greenhouse gases emission factors

IF 3.9 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Carbon Balance and Management Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI:10.1186/s13021-024-00250-8

Ernesto C. Marujo, Gleice G. Rodrigues, Arthur A. Covatti

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Abstract

Background

This article describes a new procedure to estimate the mean and variance of greenhouse gases (GHG) emission factors based on different, possibly conflicting, estimates for these emission factors. The procedure uses common information such as mean and standard deviation usually reported in IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) database and other references in the literature that estimate emission factors. Essentially, it is a procedure in the class of meta-analysis, based on the computation of \({S}_{a}^{2}\), a new estimator for the variance of the emission factor.

Results

We discuss the quality of this estimator in terms of its probability distribution and show that it is unbiased. The resulting confidence interval for the mean emission factor is tighter than those that would have resulted from using other estimators such as pooled variance and thus, the new procedure improves the accuracy in estimating GHG emissions.

The application of the procedure is illustrated in a case study involving the estimation of methane emissions from rice cultivation.

Conclusions

The estimation of emission factors using \({S}_{a}^{2}\) was demonstrated to be more accurate because it is not biased and more precise than alternative methods.

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合并温室气体排放系数估计值的程序。

背景：本文介绍了一种估算温室气体（GHG）排放因子均值和方差的新程序，该程序基于对这些排放因子不同的、可能相互矛盾的估算。该程序使用 IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）数据库中通常报告的平均值和标准偏差等常见信息，以及估计排放因子的文献中的其他参考资料。从本质上讲，这是一个元分析类程序，基于对排放因子方差的新估计值[公式：见正文]的计算：结果：我们从概率分布的角度讨论了该估计器的质量，并证明它是无偏的。由此得出的平均排放因子置信区间比使用其他估计器（如集合方差）得出的置信区间更小，因此，新程序提高了温室气体排放估计的准确性。通过对水稻种植甲烷排放量估算的案例研究说明了该程序的应用：结论：使用[公式：见正文]估算排放因子被证明更准确，因为它没有偏差，而且比其他方法更精确。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Carbon Balance and Management Environmental Science-Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

14 weeks

期刊介绍： Carbon Balance and Management is an open access, peer-reviewed online journal that encompasses all aspects of research aimed at developing a comprehensive policy relevant to the understanding of the global carbon cycle. The global carbon cycle involves important couplings between climate, atmospheric CO2 and the terrestrial and oceanic biospheres. The current transformation of the carbon cycle due to changes in climate and atmospheric composition is widely recognized as potentially dangerous for the biosphere and for the well-being of humankind, and therefore monitoring, understanding and predicting the evolution of the carbon cycle in the context of the whole biosphere (both terrestrial and marine) is a challenge to the scientific community. This demands interdisciplinary research and new approaches for studying geographical and temporal distributions of carbon pools and fluxes, control and feedback mechanisms of the carbon-climate system, points of intervention and windows of opportunity for managing the carbon-climate-human system. Carbon Balance and Management is a medium for researchers in the field to convey the results of their research across disciplinary boundaries. Through this dissemination of research, the journal aims to support the work of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and to provide governmental and non-governmental organizations with instantaneous access to continually emerging knowledge, including paradigm shifts and consensual views.