Rally ‘round the flag effects are not for all: Trajectories of institutional trust among populist and non-populist voters

IF 3.2 2区社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Social Science Research Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2024.102986

Pasquale Colloca , Michele Roccato , Silvia Russo

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Abstract

Using the Consequences of COVID-19 (COCO) dataset (quota sample of the adult Italian population, surveyed seven times by email), we analysed the trend of trust in political (political parties, parliament and local administrations), super partes (president of the Republic, judiciary and police) and international (the European Union and the United Nations) institutions from June 2019 to October 2022. Three latent growth curve models showed that trust in political institutions increased between June 2019 and April 2020 and subsequently decreased below the pre-pandemic level. Trust in super partes institutions decreased slightly between June 2019 and April 2020, decreased from April 2020 to April 2022 and increased in the subsequent months. Trust in international institutions declined between June 2019 and April 2020 and then returned to pre-pandemic levels. Three piecewise decompositions showed different trends in trust for non-populist voters, populist voters and non-voters. Strengths, weaknesses and possible developments of the study are discussed.

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围旗效应并非人人适用：民粹主义和非民粹主义选民的制度信任轨迹

利用 COVID-19 后果（COCO）数据集（意大利成年人口配额样本，通过电子邮件调查七次），我们分析了 2019 年 6 月至 2022 年 10 月期间对政治（政党、议会和地方行政机构）、超级党派（共和国总统、司法机构和警察）和国际（欧盟和联合国）机构的信任趋势。三个潜在增长曲线模型显示，对政治机构的信任度在 2019 年 6 月至 2020 年 4 月期间有所上升，随后下降至低于大流行前的水平。在 2019 年 6 月至 2020 年 4 月期间，对超级党派机构的信任略有下降，2020 年 4 月至 2022 年 4 月期间有所下降，随后几个月有所上升。对国际机构的信任度在 2019 年 6 月至 2020 年 4 月期间有所下降，随后恢复到大流行前的水平。三种片断分解显示了非民粹主义选民、民粹主义选民和非选民的不同信任趋势。本文讨论了这项研究的优势、劣势和可能的发展。

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来源期刊

Social Science Research SOCIOLOGY-

CiteScore

4.30

自引率

4.00%

发文量

审稿时长

65 days

期刊介绍： Social Science Research publishes papers devoted to quantitative social science research and methodology. The journal features articles that illustrate the use of quantitative methods in the empirical solution of substantive problems, and emphasizes those concerned with issues or methods that cut across traditional disciplinary lines. Special attention is given to methods that have been used by only one particular social science discipline, but that may have application to a broader range of areas.