From worshipping Tyche to playing with wild cards

IF 2.6 3区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI:10.1111/1468-5973.12543
Justine Walter
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Abstract

In his Physics, Aristotle acknowledges the role of Tyche, the Greek equivalent of contingency. His home, the Greek peninsula, was, and is today, regularly struck by natural hazards. Ancient records document that they wrought substantial damage to the infrastructure and political integrity of communities. Lacking reliable forecasting systems, for the ancient Greeks any of these hazards was contingent, even though there existed accepted interpretations of what (or who) caused these phenomena. Roughly 2.500 years later, future studies call sudden, unpredictable events like these ‘wild cards’. Occurring with a low probability but a substantial impact, wild cards pose challenges to social, political, and economic stability. Just as natural hazards unexpectedly interrupted and transformed social, political, and economical life in ancient communities, wild cards have the potential to disrupt current and future societies and economies. With the modern world increasingly complex and interconnected, wild cards will increase in frequency, likelihood, and impact. More than ever, local calamities will show global effects. To mitigate these effects and enable a fast recovery, creative approaches are needed. A gaze into how the societies of the distant past successfully coped with the wild cards that hit them, may thus yield inspiration for disaster risk reduction in the Anthropocene.

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从崇拜提凯到玩扑克牌
亚里士多德在《物理学》中承认 "提切 "的作用,"提切 "相当于希腊语中的 "偶然"。他的故乡希腊半岛过去和现在都经常遭受自然灾害的袭击。古籍记载,自然灾害对社区的基础设施和政治完整性造成了巨大破坏。由于缺乏可靠的预报系统,对古希腊人来说,任何这些灾害都是偶然的,即使对这些现象的成因(或谁)有公认的解释。大约 2500 年后,未来研究将这些突如其来、不可预测的事件称为 "通配符"。突发事件发生的概率很低,但影响巨大,对社会、政治和经济稳定构成挑战。正如自然灾害出人意料地打断和改变了古代社会的社会、政治和经济生活一样,"意外事件 "也有可能扰乱当前和未来的社会和经济。随着现代世界日益复杂和相互关联,突发事件的发生频率、可能性和影响都将增加。地方性灾难将比以往任何时候都更具有全球性影响。为了减轻这些影响并实现快速恢复,需要采取创造性的方法。因此,研究一下远古社会是如何成功应对各种突发事件的,或许能为人类世的减灾工作带来启发。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
12.90%
发文量
51
期刊介绍: The Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management is an invaluable source of information on all aspects of contingency planning, scenario analysis and crisis management in both corporate and public sectors. It focuses on the opportunities and threats facing organizations and presents analysis and case studies of crisis prevention, crisis planning, recovery and turnaround management. With contributions from world-wide sources including corporations, governmental agencies, think tanks and influential academics, this publication provides a vital platform for the exchange of strategic and operational experience, information and knowledge.
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