Impact of climate change on the future distribution of three Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI:10.1002/ieam.4898

Naser Hosseini, Hossein Mostafavi, Seyed Mohammad Moein Sadeghi

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Abstract

The decline of habitats supporting medicinal plants is a consequence of climate change and human activities. In the Middle East, Ferulago angulata, Ferulago carduchorum, and Ferulago phialocarpa are widely recognized for their culinary, medicinal, and economic value. Therefore, this study models these Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050 and 2070. The objective was to identify the most important bioclimatic (n = 6), edaphic (n = 4), and topographic (n = 3) variables influencing their distribution and predict changes under various climate scenarios. Findings reveal slope percentage as the most significant variable for F. angulata and F. carduchorum, while solar radiation was the primary variable for F. phialocarpa. MaxEnt modeling demonstrated good to excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve values exceeding 0.85. Projections suggest negative area changes for F. angulata and F. carduchorum (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 indicate −34.0% and −37.8% for F. phialocarpa, and −0.3% and −6.2% for F. carduchorum; additionally, predictions under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 show −39.0% and −52.2% for F. phialocarpa, and −1.33% and −9.8% for F. carduchorum), while for F. phialocarpa, a potential habitat increase (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 23.4% and 11.2%, and under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 64.4% and 42.1%) is anticipated. These insights guide adaptive management strategies, emphasizing conservation and sustainable use amid global climate change. Special attention should be paid to F. angulata and F. carduchorum due to anticipated habitat loss. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:1046–1059. © 2024 SETAC

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利用 MaxEnt 模型分析气候变化对伊朗三个 Ferulago 种类未来分布的影响。

药用植物栖息地的减少是气候变化和人类活动造成的后果。在中东，Ferulago angulata、Ferulago carduchorum 和 Ferulago phialocarpa 因其烹饪、药用和经济价值而广为人知。因此，本研究使用 MaxEnt 模型，在 2050 年和 2070 年两种具有代表性的浓度路径（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）下对伊朗的这些阿魏物种进行建模。目的是确定影响其分布的最重要的生物气候变量（6 个）、土壤变量（4 个）和地形变量（3 个），并预测各种气候情景下的变化。研究结果表明，坡度百分比是 F. angulata 和 F. carduchorum 的最重要变量，而太阳辐射则是 F. phialocarpa 的主要变量。MaxEnt 建模显示出良好到卓越的性能，所有曲线下面积值均超过 0.85。预测结果表明，F. angulata 和 F. carduchorum 的面积变化为负值（即，RCP4.5 条件下的预测值为负值）、在 RCP4.5 条件下，2050 年和 2070 年的预测值分别为-34.0%和-37.8%，F. carduchorum 为-0.3%和-6.2%；此外，在 RCP8.5 条件下，2050 年和 2070 年的预测值分别为-39.0%和-52.2%，F. phialocarpa 为-1.33%和-9.8%、根据 RCP4.5，2050 年和 2070 年的预测值分别为 23.4% 和 11.2%；根据 RCP8.5，2050 年和 2070 年的预测值分别为 64.4% 和 42.1%）。这些见解为适应性管理战略提供了指导，在全球气候变化中强调保护和可持续利用。由于预期的栖息地丧失，应特别关注 F. angulata 和 F. carduchorum。Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-14。© 2024 SETAC.

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来源期刊

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESTOXICOLOGY&nbs-TOXICOLOGY

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

6.50%

发文量

156

期刊介绍： Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management (IEAM) publishes the science underpinning environmental decision making and problem solving. Papers submitted to IEAM must link science and technical innovations to vexing regional or global environmental issues in one or more of the following core areas: Science-informed regulation, policy, and decision making Health and ecological risk and impact assessment Restoration and management of damaged ecosystems Sustaining ecosystems Managing large-scale environmental change Papers published in these broad fields of study are connected by an array of interdisciplinary engineering, management, and scientific themes, which collectively reflect the interconnectedness of the scientific, social, and environmental challenges facing our modern global society: Methods for environmental quality assessment; forecasting across a number of ecosystem uses and challenges (systems-based, cost-benefit, ecosystem services, etc.); measuring or predicting ecosystem change and adaptation Approaches that connect policy and management tools; harmonize national and international environmental regulation; merge human well-being with ecological management; develop and sustain the function of ecosystems; conceptualize, model and apply concepts of spatial and regional sustainability Assessment and management frameworks that incorporate conservation, life cycle, restoration, and sustainability; considerations for climate-induced adaptation, change and consequences, and vulnerability Environmental management applications using risk-based approaches; considerations for protecting and fostering biodiversity, as well as enhancement or protection of ecosystem services and resiliency.

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