Lake Water Temperature Modeling in an Era of Climate Change: Data Sources, Models, and Future Prospects

IF 25.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Reviews of Geophysics Pub Date : 2024-02-11 DOI:10.1029/2023RG000816
S. Piccolroaz, S. Zhu, R. Ladwig, L. Carrea, S. Oliver, A. P. Piotrowski, M. Ptak, R. Shinohara, M. Sojka, R. I. Woolway, D. Z. Zhu
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Abstract

Lake thermal dynamics have been considerably impacted by climate change, with potential adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. To better understand the potential impacts of future climate change on lake thermal dynamics and related processes, the use of mathematical models is essential. In this study, we provide a comprehensive review of lake water temperature modeling. We begin by discussing the physical concepts that regulate thermal dynamics in lakes, which serve as a primer for the description of process-based models. We then provide an overview of different sources of observational water temperature data, including in situ monitoring and satellite Earth observations, used in the field of lake water temperature modeling. We classify and review the various lake water temperature models available, and then discuss model performance, including commonly used performance metrics and optimization methods. Finally, we analyze emerging modeling approaches, including forecasting, digital twins, combining process-based modeling with deep learning, evaluating structural model differences through ensemble modeling, adapted water management, and coupling of climate and lake models. This review is aimed at a diverse group of professionals working in the fields of limnology and hydrology, including ecologists, biologists, physicists, engineers, and remote sensing researchers from the private and public sectors who are interested in understanding lake water temperature modeling and its potential applications.

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气候变化时代的湖水温度建模:数据来源、模型和未来展望
气候变化对湖泊热动力学产生了巨大影响,并可能对水生生态系统造成不利影响。为了更好地了解未来气候变化对湖泊热动态及相关过程的潜在影响,使用数学模型至关重要。在本研究中,我们对湖泊水温建模进行了全面回顾。我们首先讨论了调节湖泊热动力学的物理概念,作为描述基于过程的模型的入门读物。然后,我们概述了湖泊水温建模领域使用的不同水温观测数据来源,包括现场监测和卫星地球观测。我们对现有的各种湖泊水温模型进行了分类和评述,然后讨论了模型性能,包括常用的性能指标和优化方法。最后,我们分析了新出现的建模方法,包括预测、数字双胞胎、将基于过程的建模与深度学习相结合、通过集合建模评估结构模型差异、适应性水管理以及气候模型与湖泊模型的耦合。本综述面向湖泊学和水文学领域的各类专业人士,包括生态学家、生物学家、物理学家、工程师以及对了解湖泊水温建模及其潜在应用感兴趣的私营和公共部门的遥感研究人员。
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来源期刊
Reviews of Geophysics
Reviews of Geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
50.30
自引率
0.80%
发文量
28
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Geophysics Reviews (ROG) offers comprehensive overviews and syntheses of current research across various domains of the Earth and space sciences. Our goal is to present accessible and engaging reviews that cater to the diverse AGU community. While authorship is typically by invitation, we warmly encourage readers and potential authors to share their suggestions with our editors.
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