Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty

IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.intfin.2024.101956
Povilas Lastauskas , Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen
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Abstract

This paper examines the impact of US monetary policy tightening on emerging markets, distinguishing between direct and indirect spillover effects using the global vector autoregression with stochastic volatility covering 32 countries. The paper shows that an increase in the US interest rate significantly reduces output for emerging markets, leading to larger, more prolonged, and persistent declines. Such an impact is further intensified by global trade integration, causing a sharper yet slightly quicker rebounding output drop. The spillover effects are significantly amplified when US monetary policy tightening is accompanied by an increase in monetary policy uncertainty. Finally, emerging markets exhibit considerable heterogeneity in their responses to US monetary policy shocks.

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不确定性下美国货币政策对新兴市场的溢出效应
本文研究了美国货币政策紧缩对新兴市场的影响,并利用涵盖 32 个国家的全球随机波动向量自回归对直接和间接溢出效应进行了区分。本文表明,美国利率的上调会显著降低新兴市场的产出,导致更大、更持久和更持续的下滑。全球贸易一体化进一步加剧了这种影响,导致产出下降幅度更大,但反弹速度稍快。当美国收紧货币政策的同时,货币政策的不确定性增加,溢出效应就会明显放大。最后,新兴市场对美国货币政策冲击的反应表现出相当大的异质性。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
10.00%
发文量
142
期刊介绍: International trade, financing and investments, and the related cash and credit transactions, have grown at an extremely rapid pace in recent years. The international monetary system has continued to evolve to accommodate the need for foreign-currency denominated transactions and in the process has provided opportunities for its ongoing observation and study. The purpose of the Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money is to publish rigorous, original articles dealing with the international aspects of financial markets, institutions and money. Theoretical/conceptual and empirical papers providing meaningful insights into the subject areas will be considered. The following topic areas, although not exhaustive, are representative of the coverage in this Journal. • International financial markets • International securities markets • Foreign exchange markets • Eurocurrency markets • International syndications • Term structures of Eurocurrency rates • Determination of exchange rates • Information, speculation and parity • Forward rates and swaps • International payment mechanisms • International commercial banking; • International investment banking • Central bank intervention • International monetary systems • Balance of payments.
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