Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money最新文献

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When does it pay to be green for startups? Sustainability signaling and venture funding 什么时候对创业公司来说是值得的？可持续发展信号和风险投资

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102284

Markus Koenigsmarck , Martin Geissdoerfer , Dirk Schiereck

This study examines the relationship between sustainability and financial performance for startups. Startups must decide how to integrate sustainability considerations into their business model early on. Thereby, they suffer from scarcer resources compared to large firms and liability of newness, while familiar sustainability data are unavailable. Based on stakeholder and signaling theory, we test this relationship on a dataset of over 27,000 startups, combining Crunchbase data with sustainability signaling data – generated via natural language processing – as a sustainability indicator. We find a robust ∪-shaped connection between sustainability signaling and venture funding, with the most and least sustainable startups attracting more funding than their peers. This pattern is persistent for just-green and just-brown subsamples, suggesting investors discriminate for strategic sustainability differentiation in general and within subgroups. Our findings confirm the crucial role of strategic differentiation for startups, extending it to sustainability.

本研究考察了可持续性与创业公司财务绩效之间的关系。初创公司必须及早决定如何将可持续性考虑纳入其商业模式。因此，与大公司相比，它们的资源更少，而且有新产品的责任，而熟悉的可持续性数据则不可用。基于利益相关者和信号理论，我们在超过27,000家创业公司的数据集上测试了这种关系，将Crunchbase数据与可持续性信号数据（通过自然语言处理生成）结合起来作为可持续性指标。我们发现可持续性信号与风险投资之间存在着很强的∩形关联，最具可持续性和最不具可持续性的初创公司比同行吸引到更多的资金。这种模式在绿色和棕色子样本中持续存在，表明投资者在总体上和子群体内对战略可持续性差异有所区别。我们的研究结果证实了战略差异化对创业公司的关键作用，并将其扩展到可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

Can the tone of central bankers’ speeches help shape inflation expectations?: Evidence from Japan 央行行长讲话的语气能帮助塑造通胀预期吗？：来自日本的证据

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102283

Dooyeon Cho , Seunghwa Rho

Using survey data on households’ inflation expectations in Japan, this study investigates how the tone of central bankers’ speeches, measured with FinBERT, a domain-specific large language model, affects these expectations across the business cycle. Our findings indicate that a positive tone in central bank communications significantly boosts inflation expectations during recessions by increasing public confidence and promoting beliefs about future inflation. By contrast, during expansions, this positive tone has little impact. We also find that monetary policy shocks do not significantly affect inflation expectations in Japan. Given the country’s unique economic challenges and prolonged deflation, these findings can provide important policy implications for Japan, as managing inflation expectations is critical to its monetary policy. Overall, our results suggest that central bankers’ speeches in Japan play an important role in shaping inflation expectations, particularly during economic downturns, beyond the influence of conventional policy rate adjustments.

本研究利用日本家庭通胀预期的调查数据，用FinBERT（一个特定领域的大型语言模型）来衡量央行行长讲话的语气如何影响整个商业周期的这些预期。我们的研究结果表明，在经济衰退期间，央行沟通中的积极基调通过增强公众信心和促进对未来通胀的信念，显著提高了通胀预期。相比之下，在经济扩张期间，这种积极的基调几乎没有影响。我们还发现，货币政策冲击对日本通胀预期的影响并不显著。鉴于日本独特的经济挑战和长期的通货紧缩，这些发现可以为日本提供重要的政策启示，因为管理通胀预期对其货币政策至关重要。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，日本央行行长的讲话在塑造通胀预期方面发挥了重要作用，尤其是在经济低迷时期，超出了传统政策利率调整的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Predictive sorting of cryptocurrencies based on fundamentals and sentiment 基于基本面和情绪的加密货币预测排序

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102285

Massimo Guidolin, Serena Ionta

This paper examines the predictive power of blockchain characteristics and sentiment indicators for cryptocurrency returns. We construct three weekly factor-mimicking portfolios based on network activity (active users), computing intensity (hashrate), and a sentiment measure from Google search trends. Using an out-of-sample forecasting framework, we find that all three predictors show strong performance across 40 cryptocurrencies. The certainty equivalent returns are often well above the risk-free rate, which supports the economic relevance of the blockchain-driven predictors. We also implement a portfolio sorting methodology that ranks cryptocurrencies by earlier, realized factor-based predictability scores and forms long-short portfolios accordingly. The resulting return spreads confirm the value of combining blockchain and sentiment-based signals. Overall, our findings emphasize the joint relevance of both fundamental and behavioral factors in predicting cryptocurrency returns.

本文研究了区块链特征和情绪指标对加密货币回报的预测能力。我们基于网络活动（活跃用户）、计算强度（哈希率）和谷歌搜索趋势的情绪度量构建了三个每周因子模拟投资组合。使用样本外预测框架，我们发现所有三个预测因子在40种加密货币中都表现出强劲的表现。确定性等效回报通常远高于无风险利率，这支持了区块链驱动预测器的经济相关性。我们还实施了一种投资组合排序方法，根据早期实现的基于因素的可预测性得分对加密货币进行排名，并相应地形成多空投资组合。由此产生的回报价差证实了区块链和基于情绪的信号相结合的价值。总体而言，我们的研究结果强调了基本面因素和行为因素在预测加密货币回报方面的共同相关性。

引用次数: 0

The Vienna initiative as a signaling mechanism to disrupt the banking doom loop 维也纳倡议是打破银行业厄运循环的信号机制

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102280

Christian Glocker, Thomas Url

We investigate the emergence of the Vienna Initiative (VI) as a public–private partnership established in response to the global financial crisis, and assess its short-term impact on the risk metrics of Western European banks. Our findings suggest that negative herding behavior toward certain banks can be associated with their decision to participate in the initiative. Banks with weaker balance sheet fundamentals showed a higher likelihood of participation. The measures implemented through the VI proved effective in curbing risk transmission within the network of participating banks, underscoring a strong signaling effect on investor sentiment. Our findings underscore the value of coordinated information disclosure and conditional support in curbing short-run risk transmission.

我们调查了维也纳倡议（VI）作为应对全球金融危机而建立的公私合作伙伴关系的出现，并评估了其对西欧银行风险指标的短期影响。我们的研究结果表明，对某些银行的负面羊群行为可能与他们参与该倡议的决定有关。资产负债表基本面较弱的银行参与的可能性更高。事实证明，通过VI实施的措施有效地遏制了参与银行网络内的风险传导，强调了对投资者情绪的强烈信号效应。我们的研究结果强调了协调信息披露和有条件支持在遏制短期风险传播方面的价值。

引用次数: 0

Vulnerability to climate change and funding squeeze in Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲易受气候变化影响和资金紧张

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102281

Amétépé Egbétoké, Loredana Ureche-Rangau

The paper investigates whether and how climate vulnerability affects public debt. We focus on a region that is highly vulnerable to climate change, but scarcely explored, namely Sub-Saharan Africa. On a sample of annual data covering 38 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2022, our results highlight a negative relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and climate vulnerability. This relationship holds even when we control for several factors, namely financial crises, sovereign defaults or debt relief programs. Moreover, we account for cross-country dependence and heterogeneity and use variables measuring organized violence and adaptive capacity to climate change as instruments for climate vulnerability. When analyzing the impact of fiscal rules, our results show evidence that while climate vulnerability reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio in countries with expenditure and credible budget balance rules, establishing revenue and credible debt rules may alleviate the funding squeeze.

本文调查了气候脆弱性是否以及如何影响公共债务。我们关注的是一个极易受到气候变化影响，但很少被探索的地区，即撒哈拉以南非洲。在2000年至2022年期间覆盖38个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的年度数据样本中，我们的结果突出了债务与gdp比率与气候脆弱性之间的负相关关系。即使我们控制了几个因素，即金融危机、主权违约或债务减免计划，这种关系仍然成立。此外，我们考虑了跨国依赖和异质性，并使用衡量有组织暴力和气候变化适应能力的变量作为气候脆弱性的工具。在分析财政规则的影响时，我们的研究结果表明，虽然气候脆弱性降低了拥有支出和可信预算平衡规则的国家的债务与gdp之比，但建立收入和可信的债务规则可能会缓解资金紧张。

引用次数: 0

Quantifying credit gaps using survey data on discouraged borrowers 利用对气馁的借款人的调查数据量化信贷缺口

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102279

Ozan E. Akbas , Frank Betz , Luca Gattini

This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the aggregate financing needs of firms that are bankable yet discouraged from applying for a loan. Our data come mainly from the 2018–2020 Enterprise Survey and cover 35 emerging and developing economies. Drawing on the literature on corporate bankruptcy prediction, we develop a model with elastic net regularization to predict the outcome of loan applications. Our approach suggests that 38% of discouraged firms would have had their loan application approved, signaling inefficient self-rationing. Using this information, we estimate an aggregate credit gap of 5.4% of GDP, with significant variation across countries. Small and medium-sized enterprises account for more than two-thirds of the total, reflecting both their contribution to economic activity and the fact that they are more likely to be credit-constrained.

本文提出了一种方法来估计可融资但不愿申请贷款的公司的总融资需求。我们的数据主要来自《2018-2020年企业调查》，涵盖35个新兴和发展中经济体。在借鉴企业破产预测文献的基础上，建立了一个弹性网正则化的企业破产预测模型。我们的方法表明，38%的气馁企业的贷款申请会获得批准，这表明自我定量配给效率低下。利用这些信息，我们估计信贷缺口总额为GDP的5.4%，各国差异很大。中小企业占总数的三分之二以上，这既反映了它们对经济活动的贡献，也反映了它们更有可能受到信贷限制的事实。

引用次数: 0

Navigating uncertainty: How do interest rate fluctuations affect ESG performance? 驾驭不确定性：利率波动如何影响ESG绩效？

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102282

Çiğdem Vural-Yavaş , Seda Bilyay-Erdogan

This study examines the impact of interest rate uncertainty on corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance, using an international dataset covering 8,296 firm-year observations. We present novel evidence that short-term and long-term interest rate uncertainty have a positive impact on ESG performance, with the estimated impact of short-term uncertainty being approximately three times greater than that of long-term uncertainty. Our findings remain robust when we employ alternative variable definitions, samples, model specifications, and methodologies that address endogeneity issues. Next, we identify potential transmission channels: long-term interest rate uncertainty affects ESG through corporate investments and financial constraints, while short-term uncertainty does so via corporate risk-taking. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that country-level institutional factors moderate the long-term interest rate uncertainty – ESG link, such that the positive impact of long-term interest rate uncertainty on corporate ESG performance is less pronounced for the firms in countries with more institutional quality. Overall, the results underscore the significance of macro-financial uncertainty in shaping firms’ sustainability practices.

本研究使用涵盖8,296家公司年度观察的国际数据集，考察了利率不确定性对公司环境、社会和治理（ESG）绩效的影响。我们提出了新的证据，证明短期和长期利率不确定性对ESG绩效有积极影响，估计短期不确定性的影响大约是长期不确定性的三倍。当我们采用可选择的变量定义、样本、模型规范和解决内生性问题的方法时，我们的发现仍然是稳健的。其次，我们确定了潜在的传导渠道：长期利率不确定性通过企业投资和财务约束影响ESG，而短期利率不确定性通过企业风险承担影响ESG。最后，我们实证证明，国家层面的制度因素调节了长期利率不确定性与ESG之间的联系，因此，在制度质量较高的国家，长期利率不确定性对企业ESG绩效的积极影响不太明显。总体而言，研究结果强调了宏观金融不确定性在塑造企业可持续发展实践中的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

What Drives the Regret Premium: Evidence from China 是什么推动了后悔溢价：来自中国的证据

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102277

Shujie Wang , Liyan Han , Xiaoguang Yang , Tongshuai Qiao

Although prior studies suggest that investor regret is a salient behavioral force in emerging markets, the factors driving the regret (REG) premium remain underexplored. This paper fills this gap by investigating the underlying drivers within China’s distinctive market and institutional context. Using portfolio sorts and Fama-MacBeth regressions from 1995 to 2024, we find that high-REG stocks earn significantly higher risk-adjusted returns. Further analyses reveal that the REG premium is stronger for non-state-owned enterprises, during periods of high market volatility, in low-information environments, and when investor sentiment is weak. Liquidity improvements, greater market openness, and higher institutional participation substantially attenuate the effect. Robustness checks using alternative benchmarks, extended estimation horizons, and an orthogonalized measure confirm that the REG premium is a robust and persistent market anomaly. Overall, our findings suggest that improvements in the market environment help reduce mispricing, providing broader insights into behavioral asset pricing and financial liberalization in emerging markets.

尽管先前的研究表明，投资者后悔是新兴市场中一个显著的行为力量，但驱动后悔（REG）溢价的因素仍未得到充分探讨。本文通过研究中国独特的市场和制度背景下的潜在驱动因素来填补这一空白。利用1995 - 2024年的投资组合排序和Fama-MacBeth回归，我们发现高reg股票的风险调整收益显著更高。进一步分析表明，非国有企业的REG溢价在市场高波动时期、低信息环境和投资者情绪较弱时更强。流动性的改善、更大的市场开放和更高的机构参与大大减弱了这种效应。鲁棒性检查使用替代基准，扩展的估计范围，和正交测量确认，REG溢价是一个稳健和持久的市场异常。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，市场环境的改善有助于减少错误定价，为新兴市场的行为资产定价和金融自由化提供了更广泛的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Do GPs truly present fair value? The case of continuation funds 普通合伙人是否真实反映公允价值？延续基金的案例

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102265

Jinhyeong Jo , Doojin Ryu

We suggest a model in which General Partners (GPs) can have incentives to distort valuations in continuation funds, an increasingly common vehicle in private equity. GPs may inflate valuations to raise fees under asymmetric information and misaligned incentives between exit and rolling Limited Partners (LPs). Such distortion diminishes when the proportion of rolling LPs is higher and when the GP faces stronger prospects of raising follow-on funds. We characterize the model under Limited Partner Advisory Committee (LPAC) approval and investor participation. We propose governance measures to strengthen valuation integrity by capturing the bargaining dynamics between exit and rolling LPs.

我们提出了一个模型，在这个模型中，普通合伙人（gp）可能有动机扭曲延续基金的估值，延续基金是私募股权中越来越常见的工具。在信息不对称和退出与滚动有限合伙人（lp）之间激励不一致的情况下，普通合伙人可能会抬高估值以提高费用。当滚动有限合伙人的比例较高，以及普通合伙人面临更大的后续融资前景时，这种扭曲就会减弱。我们在有限合伙人咨询委员会（LPAC）批准和投资者参与的情况下描述该模型。我们建议采取治理措施，通过捕捉退出有限合伙人和滚动有限合伙人之间的议价动态来加强估值完整性。

引用次数: 0

Opportunity or challenge? The impact of stock market liberalization on product market competitiveness 机遇还是挑战？股票市场自由化对产品市场竞争力的影响

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102274

Lu Jolly Zhou, Wanqing Zheng, Haotian Tang, Xinru Li

This paper examines how stock market liberalization affects product market competitiveness in emerging economies. Using the Mainland China-Hong Kong Stock Connect program as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ a staggered difference-in-differences approach. The empirical evidence shows that stock market liberalization, on average, is associated with an increase of 19.45% in firms’ market share relative to the sample mean. This effect operates through improving information disclosure and enhancing product quality. The effect is more pronounced for firms in growth and maturity lifecycle stages, with stronger corporate reputations, and better governance structures. The further evidence suggests while financial globalization generally enhances competitive positioning, it simultaneously intensifies short-term predation risks as increased transparency provides competitors with strategic insights.

本文考察了新兴经济体股票市场自由化对产品市场竞争力的影响。我们将中国内地与香港股票通计划作为准自然实验，采用了交错差中差方法。实证表明，股票市场自由化与企业市场份额相对于样本均值平均增长19.45%相关。这种效果是通过完善信息披露和提高产品质量来实现的。这种效应对于处于成长和成熟生命周期阶段的公司更为明显，这些公司拥有更强的企业声誉和更好的治理结构。进一步的证据表明，虽然金融全球化通常增强了竞争定位，但同时也加剧了短期捕食风险，因为透明度的提高为竞争对手提供了战略见解。

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全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

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全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

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Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

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