Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money最新文献

英文中文

Inflation tales: the heterogeneous price effects from current account dynamics 通胀故事：来自经常账户动态的异质性价格效应

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102287

António Afonso , José Alves , João Jalles , Sofia Monteiro

This paper examines the impact of current account balances on energy, headline, and core inflation across developed and developing economies from 1980 to 2023. Using Panel OLS fixed effects, Panel-IV 2SLS and Panel Vector Autoregressive models, we find that an improvement in the current account consistently leads to lower inflation, with heterogeneous effects across inflation components, even when controlling for monetary policy. Our analysis also explores regional differences and contrasts the periods before and after the 2008 subprime crisis, revealing that current account surpluses had a stronger deflationary effect in the more recent period. There is also a negative link between cyclical unemployment and inflation supporting the traditional Phillips curve perspective. For net fuel-importing countries, the current account balance exhibits negative and statistically significant coefficients to both energy inflation and headline inflation. These results suggest that policies aimed at improving current account balances, particularly in energy-importing countries, could help mitigate inflationary pressures.

本文考察了1980年至2023年间发达经济体和发展中经济体经常账户余额对能源、总体和核心通胀的影响。使用面板OLS固定效应、面板- iv 2SLS和面板向量自回归模型，我们发现，即使在控制货币政策的情况下，经常账户的改善也会导致通货膨胀率降低，并且在通货膨胀成分之间具有异质效应。我们的分析还探讨了地区差异，并对比了2008年次贷危机前后的时期，揭示了经常账户盈余在最近一段时期具有更强的通缩效应。周期性失业和通胀之间也存在负相关，这支持了传统的菲利普斯曲线观点。对于燃料净进口国，经常账户余额对能源通货膨胀和总体通货膨胀都显示出负的和统计上显著的系数。这些结果表明，旨在改善经常账户余额的政策，特别是能源进口国的政策，可能有助于减轻通胀压力。

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引用次数: 0

License to Give Up? informal competition and registered SMEs’ discouragement 放弃的许可？非正规竞争与注册中小企业的阻碍

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102288

Francis Osei-Tutu , Daniel Taylor , Eunice Yaa Cudjoe , Gyedu Justice Opoku

An important barrier in SME lending is the discouragement of borrowing firms. Research documents that a substantial number of firms in need of credit refrain from applying for loans in the first place, thereby self-imposing financing constraints. In this paper, we examine whether competition from informal firms influences the discouragement of borrowing registered SMEs. Using firm-level survey data of 29,105 SMEs in 64 countries, we find that registered SMEs facing competition from informal firms are more likely to be discouraged from applying for loans. Engaging in corrupt activities as a non-market strategy does not mitigate the adverse effect of informal competition. Further analysis shows that this effect is observable for younger and non-exporting registered SMEs, highlighting the need for policy frameworks tailored specifically for younger registered SMEs and also policies that facilitate registered SMEs to internationalize. Overall, our results are consistent with previous research on the parasite view of informality and suggest that policy measures aimed at reducing informality would lower borrower discouragement.

中小企业贷款的一个重要障碍是借款公司的不积极性。研究表明，大量需要信贷的公司一开始就不申请贷款，从而自我施加融资限制。本文考察了来自非正式企业的竞争是否会影响注册中小企业借贷的积极性。利用64个国家29105家中小企业的企业层面调查数据，我们发现，面临非正规企业竞争的注册中小企业更有可能不愿申请贷款。作为一种非市场策略，参与腐败活动并不能减轻非正式竞争的不利影响。进一步的分析表明，对于较年轻的和非出口注册的中小企业来说，这种影响是可以观察到的，这突出表明需要制定专门为较年轻的注册中小企业量身定制的政策框架，以及促进注册中小企业国际化的政策。总体而言，我们的结果与之前关于非正式性的寄生虫观点的研究一致，并表明旨在减少非正式性的政策措施将降低借款人的气馁情绪。

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引用次数: 0

When do alliances with FinTechs pay off for banks? The moderating role of corporate governance 银行与金融科技公司的联盟什么时候能给银行带来回报？公司治理的调节作用

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102286

Giuliana Birindelli , Helen Chiappini , Pierluigi Martino

This study examines the performance implications of bank-FinTech alliances and the role of corporate governance as a key moderating factor. Based on a hand-collected database of alliances between European banks and FinTech firms from 2012 to 2022, our research shows that corporate governance mechanisms—namely formalizing a bank’s digital strategy, appointing a chief digital officer, and the presence of digital and technological expertise on the board—moderate the relationship between these alliances and bank performance. Our robust findings contribute to the emerging body of research on the banking outcomes of alliances with FinTech firms by introducing the moderating effect of digitalization-related corporate governance mechanisms. Furthermore, the number of alliances and specific FinTech business models influence bank performance when banks have implemented these digital mechanisms. Our findings carry significant implications for banks, policymakers, and regulators, who have increasingly highlighted the vital role governance mechanisms play in fostering successful alliances in recent years.

本研究考察了银行-金融科技联盟的绩效影响以及公司治理作为关键调节因素的作用。基于2012年至2022年欧洲银行与金融科技公司联盟的手工收集数据库，我们的研究表明，公司治理机制——即正式确定银行的数字战略、任命首席数字官以及董事会中存在数字和技术专业知识——调节了这些联盟与银行绩效之间的关系。我们强有力的研究结果通过引入与数字化相关的公司治理机制的调节作用，为与金融科技公司结盟的银行业结果的新兴研究做出了贡献。此外，当银行实施这些数字机制时，联盟的数量和特定的金融科技商业模式会影响银行的绩效。我们的研究结果对银行、政策制定者和监管机构具有重要意义，他们近年来日益强调治理机制在培育成功联盟方面发挥的重要作用。

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引用次数: 0

When does it pay to be green for startups? Sustainability signaling and venture funding 什么时候对创业公司来说是值得的？可持续发展信号和风险投资

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102284

Markus Koenigsmarck , Martin Geissdoerfer , Dirk Schiereck

This study examines the relationship between sustainability and financial performance for startups. Startups must decide how to integrate sustainability considerations into their business model early on. Thereby, they suffer from scarcer resources compared to large firms and liability of newness, while familiar sustainability data are unavailable. Based on stakeholder and signaling theory, we test this relationship on a dataset of over 27,000 startups, combining Crunchbase data with sustainability signaling data – generated via natural language processing – as a sustainability indicator. We find a robust ∪-shaped connection between sustainability signaling and venture funding, with the most and least sustainable startups attracting more funding than their peers. This pattern is persistent for just-green and just-brown subsamples, suggesting investors discriminate for strategic sustainability differentiation in general and within subgroups. Our findings confirm the crucial role of strategic differentiation for startups, extending it to sustainability.

本研究考察了可持续性与创业公司财务绩效之间的关系。初创公司必须及早决定如何将可持续性考虑纳入其商业模式。因此，与大公司相比，它们的资源更少，而且有新产品的责任，而熟悉的可持续性数据则不可用。基于利益相关者和信号理论，我们在超过27,000家创业公司的数据集上测试了这种关系，将Crunchbase数据与可持续性信号数据（通过自然语言处理生成）结合起来作为可持续性指标。我们发现可持续性信号与风险投资之间存在着很强的∩形关联，最具可持续性和最不具可持续性的初创公司比同行吸引到更多的资金。这种模式在绿色和棕色子样本中持续存在，表明投资者在总体上和子群体内对战略可持续性差异有所区别。我们的研究结果证实了战略差异化对创业公司的关键作用，并将其扩展到可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

Can the tone of central bankers’ speeches help shape inflation expectations?: Evidence from Japan 央行行长讲话的语气能帮助塑造通胀预期吗？：来自日本的证据

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102283

Dooyeon Cho , Seunghwa Rho

Using survey data on households’ inflation expectations in Japan, this study investigates how the tone of central bankers’ speeches, measured with FinBERT, a domain-specific large language model, affects these expectations across the business cycle. Our findings indicate that a positive tone in central bank communications significantly boosts inflation expectations during recessions by increasing public confidence and promoting beliefs about future inflation. By contrast, during expansions, this positive tone has little impact. We also find that monetary policy shocks do not significantly affect inflation expectations in Japan. Given the country’s unique economic challenges and prolonged deflation, these findings can provide important policy implications for Japan, as managing inflation expectations is critical to its monetary policy. Overall, our results suggest that central bankers’ speeches in Japan play an important role in shaping inflation expectations, particularly during economic downturns, beyond the influence of conventional policy rate adjustments.

本研究利用日本家庭通胀预期的调查数据，用FinBERT（一个特定领域的大型语言模型）来衡量央行行长讲话的语气如何影响整个商业周期的这些预期。我们的研究结果表明，在经济衰退期间，央行沟通中的积极基调通过增强公众信心和促进对未来通胀的信念，显著提高了通胀预期。相比之下，在经济扩张期间，这种积极的基调几乎没有影响。我们还发现，货币政策冲击对日本通胀预期的影响并不显著。鉴于日本独特的经济挑战和长期的通货紧缩，这些发现可以为日本提供重要的政策启示，因为管理通胀预期对其货币政策至关重要。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，日本央行行长的讲话在塑造通胀预期方面发挥了重要作用，尤其是在经济低迷时期，超出了传统政策利率调整的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Predictive sorting of cryptocurrencies based on fundamentals and sentiment 基于基本面和情绪的加密货币预测排序

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102285

Massimo Guidolin, Serena Ionta

This paper examines the predictive power of blockchain characteristics and sentiment indicators for cryptocurrency returns. We construct three weekly factor-mimicking portfolios based on network activity (active users), computing intensity (hashrate), and a sentiment measure from Google search trends. Using an out-of-sample forecasting framework, we find that all three predictors show strong performance across 40 cryptocurrencies. The certainty equivalent returns are often well above the risk-free rate, which supports the economic relevance of the blockchain-driven predictors. We also implement a portfolio sorting methodology that ranks cryptocurrencies by earlier, realized factor-based predictability scores and forms long-short portfolios accordingly. The resulting return spreads confirm the value of combining blockchain and sentiment-based signals. Overall, our findings emphasize the joint relevance of both fundamental and behavioral factors in predicting cryptocurrency returns.

本文研究了区块链特征和情绪指标对加密货币回报的预测能力。我们基于网络活动（活跃用户）、计算强度（哈希率）和谷歌搜索趋势的情绪度量构建了三个每周因子模拟投资组合。使用样本外预测框架，我们发现所有三个预测因子在40种加密货币中都表现出强劲的表现。确定性等效回报通常远高于无风险利率，这支持了区块链驱动预测器的经济相关性。我们还实施了一种投资组合排序方法，根据早期实现的基于因素的可预测性得分对加密货币进行排名，并相应地形成多空投资组合。由此产生的回报价差证实了区块链和基于情绪的信号相结合的价值。总体而言，我们的研究结果强调了基本面因素和行为因素在预测加密货币回报方面的共同相关性。

引用次数: 0

The Vienna initiative as a signaling mechanism to disrupt the banking doom loop 维也纳倡议是打破银行业厄运循环的信号机制

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102280

Christian Glocker, Thomas Url

We investigate the emergence of the Vienna Initiative (VI) as a public–private partnership established in response to the global financial crisis, and assess its short-term impact on the risk metrics of Western European banks. Our findings suggest that negative herding behavior toward certain banks can be associated with their decision to participate in the initiative. Banks with weaker balance sheet fundamentals showed a higher likelihood of participation. The measures implemented through the VI proved effective in curbing risk transmission within the network of participating banks, underscoring a strong signaling effect on investor sentiment. Our findings underscore the value of coordinated information disclosure and conditional support in curbing short-run risk transmission.

我们调查了维也纳倡议（VI）作为应对全球金融危机而建立的公私合作伙伴关系的出现，并评估了其对西欧银行风险指标的短期影响。我们的研究结果表明，对某些银行的负面羊群行为可能与他们参与该倡议的决定有关。资产负债表基本面较弱的银行参与的可能性更高。事实证明，通过VI实施的措施有效地遏制了参与银行网络内的风险传导，强调了对投资者情绪的强烈信号效应。我们的研究结果强调了协调信息披露和有条件支持在遏制短期风险传播方面的价值。

引用次数: 0

Vulnerability to climate change and funding squeeze in Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲易受气候变化影响和资金紧张

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102281

Amétépé Egbétoké, Loredana Ureche-Rangau

The paper investigates whether and how climate vulnerability affects public debt. We focus on a region that is highly vulnerable to climate change, but scarcely explored, namely Sub-Saharan Africa. On a sample of annual data covering 38 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2022, our results highlight a negative relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and climate vulnerability. This relationship holds even when we control for several factors, namely financial crises, sovereign defaults or debt relief programs. Moreover, we account for cross-country dependence and heterogeneity and use variables measuring organized violence and adaptive capacity to climate change as instruments for climate vulnerability. When analyzing the impact of fiscal rules, our results show evidence that while climate vulnerability reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio in countries with expenditure and credible budget balance rules, establishing revenue and credible debt rules may alleviate the funding squeeze.

本文调查了气候脆弱性是否以及如何影响公共债务。我们关注的是一个极易受到气候变化影响，但很少被探索的地区，即撒哈拉以南非洲。在2000年至2022年期间覆盖38个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的年度数据样本中，我们的结果突出了债务与gdp比率与气候脆弱性之间的负相关关系。即使我们控制了几个因素，即金融危机、主权违约或债务减免计划，这种关系仍然成立。此外，我们考虑了跨国依赖和异质性，并使用衡量有组织暴力和气候变化适应能力的变量作为气候脆弱性的工具。在分析财政规则的影响时，我们的研究结果表明，虽然气候脆弱性降低了拥有支出和可信预算平衡规则的国家的债务与gdp之比，但建立收入和可信的债务规则可能会缓解资金紧张。

引用次数: 0

Quantifying credit gaps using survey data on discouraged borrowers 利用对气馁的借款人的调查数据量化信贷缺口

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102279

Ozan E. Akbas , Frank Betz , Luca Gattini

This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the aggregate financing needs of firms that are bankable yet discouraged from applying for a loan. Our data come mainly from the 2018–2020 Enterprise Survey and cover 35 emerging and developing economies. Drawing on the literature on corporate bankruptcy prediction, we develop a model with elastic net regularization to predict the outcome of loan applications. Our approach suggests that 38% of discouraged firms would have had their loan application approved, signaling inefficient self-rationing. Using this information, we estimate an aggregate credit gap of 5.4% of GDP, with significant variation across countries. Small and medium-sized enterprises account for more than two-thirds of the total, reflecting both their contribution to economic activity and the fact that they are more likely to be credit-constrained.

本文提出了一种方法来估计可融资但不愿申请贷款的公司的总融资需求。我们的数据主要来自《2018-2020年企业调查》，涵盖35个新兴和发展中经济体。在借鉴企业破产预测文献的基础上，建立了一个弹性网正则化的企业破产预测模型。我们的方法表明，38%的气馁企业的贷款申请会获得批准，这表明自我定量配给效率低下。利用这些信息，我们估计信贷缺口总额为GDP的5.4%，各国差异很大。中小企业占总数的三分之二以上，这既反映了它们对经济活动的贡献，也反映了它们更有可能受到信贷限制的事实。

引用次数: 0

Navigating uncertainty: How do interest rate fluctuations affect ESG performance? 驾驭不确定性：利率波动如何影响ESG绩效？

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102282

Çiğdem Vural-Yavaş , Seda Bilyay-Erdogan

This study examines the impact of interest rate uncertainty on corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance, using an international dataset covering 8,296 firm-year observations. We present novel evidence that short-term and long-term interest rate uncertainty have a positive impact on ESG performance, with the estimated impact of short-term uncertainty being approximately three times greater than that of long-term uncertainty. Our findings remain robust when we employ alternative variable definitions, samples, model specifications, and methodologies that address endogeneity issues. Next, we identify potential transmission channels: long-term interest rate uncertainty affects ESG through corporate investments and financial constraints, while short-term uncertainty does so via corporate risk-taking. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that country-level institutional factors moderate the long-term interest rate uncertainty – ESG link, such that the positive impact of long-term interest rate uncertainty on corporate ESG performance is less pronounced for the firms in countries with more institutional quality. Overall, the results underscore the significance of macro-financial uncertainty in shaping firms’ sustainability practices.

本研究使用涵盖8,296家公司年度观察的国际数据集，考察了利率不确定性对公司环境、社会和治理（ESG）绩效的影响。我们提出了新的证据，证明短期和长期利率不确定性对ESG绩效有积极影响，估计短期不确定性的影响大约是长期不确定性的三倍。当我们采用可选择的变量定义、样本、模型规范和解决内生性问题的方法时，我们的发现仍然是稳健的。其次，我们确定了潜在的传导渠道：长期利率不确定性通过企业投资和财务约束影响ESG，而短期利率不确定性通过企业风险承担影响ESG。最后，我们实证证明，国家层面的制度因素调节了长期利率不确定性与ESG之间的联系，因此，在制度质量较高的国家，长期利率不确定性对企业ESG绩效的积极影响不太明显。总体而言，研究结果强调了宏观金融不确定性在塑造企业可持续发展实践中的重要性。

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