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Multiple large shareholders and controlling shareholders’ over-appointing of directors
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102124
Feng Wei, Lei Zhou
Using manually collected data on directors appointed by controlling shareholders, we find a positive association between the presence of multiple large shareholders (MLS) and controlling shareholders over-appointing of directors. We then provide evidence to show that the purpose of controlling shareholders to over-appoint directors in firms with MLS is to gain the advantage of control contests and resist monitoring by other large shareholders. Furthermore, our results indicate that foreign shareholders are more likely to compete for control with local controlling shareholders and to monitor them, leading to controlling shareholders over-appoint more directors. We also document that the relationship between MLS and controlling shareholders’ over-appointing of directors is less pronounced in firms with longer director tenure, a separate nomination committee and foreign directors.
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引用次数: 0
Aggregate earnings and global equity returns
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102125
Yigit Atilgan , K. Ozgur Demirtas , A. Doruk Gunaydin , Aynur Dilan Tosun , Duygu Zirek
This paper compares the predictive power of aggregate earnings for equity returns in international markets. We rank 51 non-US countries based on the time-series averages of their price synchronicity and market concentration measures, calculated at the firm level using daily data. We find that aggregate earnings negatively predict one-quarter-ahead stock returns in country groups that contain less synchronous and concentrated markets, as opposed to country groups that contain more synchronous and concentrated markets. We attribute the negative predictive power of aggregate earnings to a business cycle effect because high (low) corporate earnings correspond to economic expansions (contractions) that tend to be associated with negative (positive) risk premia. However, this business cycle effect is offset by the positive relation between firm-level earnings and future stock returns that translates to the aggregate level in more synchronous and concentrated markets due to a lower degree of diversification. Our results remain robust after controlling for various macroeconomic variables and in alternative subsamples.
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引用次数: 0
“Dollarization vs. bitcoinization in Türkiye: Which is more dangerous for the financial market?”
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102116
George M. Jabbour , Layal Mansour-Ichrakieh
While bitcoinization and dollarization share similar theoretical economic definitions, their effects on the financial market differ. We employ a vector autoregressive model and Granger causality test to examine the causal relationships between Bitcoin demand, the dollarization rate, and the financial market in Türkiye. The results indicate that neither bitcoinization nor dollarization directly causes a financial crisis in Türkiye. However, when breaking down the financial market into its three components —the banking sector, the stock market, and the foreign exchange market — we find a bidirectional causality between bitcoinization and the banking sector, and between dollarization and the exchange market.
{"title":"“Dollarization vs. bitcoinization in Türkiye: Which is more dangerous for the financial market?”","authors":"George M. Jabbour ,&nbsp;Layal Mansour-Ichrakieh","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While bitcoinization and dollarization share similar theoretical economic definitions, their effects on the financial market differ. We employ a vector autoregressive model and Granger causality test to examine the causal relationships between Bitcoin demand, the dollarization rate, and the financial market in Türkiye. The results indicate that neither bitcoinization nor dollarization directly causes a financial crisis in Türkiye. However, when breaking down the financial market into its three components —the banking sector, the stock market, and the foreign exchange market — we find a bidirectional causality between bitcoinization and the banking sector, and between dollarization and the exchange market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102116"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143395646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Managing cryptocurrency risk exposures in equity portfolios: Evidence from high-frequency data
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102123
Minhao Leong , Vitali Alexeev , Simon Kwok
We investigate the evolving relationships between cryptocurrencies and equity portfolios and find that Bitcoin’s contributions to the active risks of equity portfolios have grown over time, exceeding 10% in defensive strategies. This underscores the increasing importance of investment professionals quantifying and managing crypto-related risk exposures in their portfolios, a task for which we provide guidance. For risk measurement, we use intraday returns to significantly improve the forecast accuracy of equity portfolio sensitivities to cryptocurrency risks. For risk management, we advocate direct hedging for optimal risk reduction and suggest using stock selection constraints as an alternative approach to limit the influence of cryptocurrencies on portfolio risk exposures.
{"title":"Managing cryptocurrency risk exposures in equity portfolios: Evidence from high-frequency data","authors":"Minhao Leong ,&nbsp;Vitali Alexeev ,&nbsp;Simon Kwok","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102123","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102123","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the evolving relationships between cryptocurrencies and equity portfolios and find that Bitcoin’s contributions to the active risks of equity portfolios have grown over time, exceeding 10% in defensive strategies. This underscores the increasing importance of investment professionals quantifying and managing crypto-related risk exposures in their portfolios, a task for which we provide guidance. For risk measurement, we use intraday returns to significantly improve the forecast accuracy of equity portfolio sensitivities to cryptocurrency risks. For risk management, we advocate direct hedging for optimal risk reduction and suggest using stock selection constraints as an alternative approach to limit the influence of cryptocurrencies on portfolio risk exposures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102123"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stock market reaction to mandatory carbon disclosure announcements: The role of institutional investors
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102113
Chris Florackis , Dewan Muktadir-Al-Mukit , Sushil Sainani , Ziyang (John) Zhang
We examine the stock market reaction to mandatory carbon disclosure (MCD) announcements in the UK, the first country to mandate the disclosure of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by listed firms. Our analysis reveals that, while the overall market was not greatly affected, firms with high carbon intensity and substantial institutional ownership experienced negative abnormal stock returns. This effect persists–and even becomes more pronounced–for firms owned by long-term institutional investors and those from countries with strong social norms surrounding climate and sustainability. Additionally, we find that heightened institutional investor attention on announcement days amplified price pressure, leading to more negative stock returns for these firms. Collectively, our findings underscore how mandatory carbon disclosure announcements enhanced the salience of carbon information, prompting institutional investors to incorporate carbon-related considerations into their decision-making processes.
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引用次数: 0
Nonlinearity in the nexus between financial development and wealth inequality
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102117
Dong-Hyeon Kim , Peiyao Liu , Shu-Chin Lin
Rising income and wealth inequality have renewed interest in their determinants, positioning the financial sector as a central focus of the ongoing debate. Nevertheless, controversy persists regarding the relationship between financial development and economic inequality. While much of the empirical literature focuses on income inequality, wealth inequality has received comparatively less attention. Given the extreme concentration of wealth and its influence on economic opportunity and political power, this paper explores whether it is excessive or insufficient financial development that contributes to the widening disparities in wealth distribution. Using a cross-country panel data framework, the study finds that financial development exacerbates wealth inequality by increasing wealth concentration at the top and diminishing wealth shares in the bottom 50% up to a certain threshold. Beyond this point, financial development results in a reduction of top wealth shares and an increase in the wealth shares of the bottom 50%, thereby narrowing wealth inequality. A similar pattern is observed for income inequality. Pathway analyses indicate that these effects are partially mediated through entrepreneurship. Insufficient financial development adversely impacts both wealth and income distribution.
日益加剧的收入和财富不平等再次引起了人们对其决定因素的关注,并将金融部门定位为当前辩论的核心焦点。然而,关于金融发展与经济不平等之间关系的争议依然存在。大部分实证文献关注的是收入不平等,而财富不平等受到的关注相对较少。鉴于财富的极端集中及其对经济机会和政治权力的影响,本文探讨了是金融发展过度还是不足导致了财富分配差距的扩大。利用跨国面板数据框架,研究发现,金融发展会加剧财富不平等,因为在达到一定临界点之前,财富会向顶端集中,而底层 50%的财富份额会减少。超过这个临界点,金融发展会导致顶部财富份额减少,底部 50%财富份额增加,从而缩小财富不平等。收入不平等的情况也是如此。途径分析表明,这些影响部分是通过创业产生的。金融发展不足对财富和收入分配都有不利影响。
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引用次数: 0
Downside belief disagreements and financial instability: Evidence from risk factor disclosures in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102118
Rui Li , Jianping Li , Xiaoqian Zhu
At what point does the shift from a stable to an unstable financial system occur? This study develops the first measurement of downside belief disagreements by utilizing the qualitative disclosures of risk factors in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings. We show that the transition into financial instability occurs with a large increase in downside belief disagreements. Notably, it is not only downside belief disagreements but also its interaction with rapid credit expansion that matters for financial stability risks. We further conduct mechanism tests and find that downside belief disagreements harm financial stability by imposing credit constraints and price reductions.
{"title":"Downside belief disagreements and financial instability: Evidence from risk factor disclosures in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings","authors":"Rui Li ,&nbsp;Jianping Li ,&nbsp;Xiaoqian Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At what point does the shift from a stable to an unstable financial system occur? This study develops the first measurement of downside belief disagreements by utilizing the qualitative disclosures of risk factors in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings. We show that the transition into financial instability occurs with a large increase in downside belief disagreements. Notably, it is not only downside belief disagreements but also its interaction with rapid credit expansion that matters for financial stability risks. We further conduct mechanism tests and find that downside belief disagreements harm financial stability by imposing credit constraints and price reductions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102118"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Covered interest rate parity deviations, COVID-19 pandemic infection cases, and vaccination
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102122
Yu-Lun Chen , Yi-Hua Li , Wan-Shin Mo , J. Jimmy Yang
This study explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on deviations from covered interest rate parity (CIP) for G10 currencies. We find that a higher number of COVID-19 infection cases and a higher stringency index, which captures the strictness of policies and government interventions, are associated with larger CIP deviations. However, this relation disappears after COVID-19 vaccines became available. This finding indicates that vaccines not only represent a significant advancement in combating the coronavirus but also contribute to improving efficiency in the FX market by mitigating uncertainty and stabilizing economic conditions. Furthermore, we find that the rise of the U.S. dollar during the COVID-19 pandemic contributes to persistent deviations from CIP.
本研究探讨了 COVID-19 大流行对 G10 货币的覆盖利率平价(CIP)偏差的影响。我们发现,COVID-19 感染病例数越多,严格指数越高(该指数反映了政策和政府干预措施的严格程度),CIP 偏离越大。然而,在 COVID-19 疫苗上市后,这种关系消失了。这一发现表明,疫苗不仅代表了抗击冠状病毒的重大进步,而且还有助于通过缓解不确定性和稳定经济状况来提高外汇市场的效率。此外,我们还发现,在 COVID-19 大流行期间,美元的上涨也是导致持续偏离 CIP 的原因之一。
{"title":"Covered interest rate parity deviations, COVID-19 pandemic infection cases, and vaccination","authors":"Yu-Lun Chen ,&nbsp;Yi-Hua Li ,&nbsp;Wan-Shin Mo ,&nbsp;J. Jimmy Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102122","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102122","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on deviations from covered interest rate parity (CIP) for G10 currencies. We find that a higher number of COVID-19 infection cases and a higher stringency index, which captures the strictness of policies and government interventions, are associated with larger CIP deviations. However, this relation disappears after COVID-19 vaccines became available. This finding indicates that vaccines not only represent a significant advancement in combating the coronavirus but also contribute to improving efficiency in the FX market by mitigating uncertainty and stabilizing economic conditions. Furthermore, we find that the rise of the U.S. dollar during the COVID-19 pandemic contributes to persistent deviations from CIP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102122"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Governmental venture capital and investor sentiment: Evidence from Chinese government guidance funds
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102120
Xinfei Huang , Yue Zhang , Zhe Zong
While the role of government-backed venture capital (GVC) in influencing companies’ operating performance has been well-documented, its potential impact on the financial market remains less explored. This paper aims to fill this gap in the context of China’s venture capital market. Since 2002, the Chinese government has launched a type of policy VC fund—government guidance funds (GGFs)—to stimulate innovation, industrial transformation, and local economic growth. Using a sample of 2,860 IPO companies from 2010 to 2021, we show that GGF-backed IPOs exhibited higher initial returns than both non-VC-backed and non-GGF VC-backed IPOs. A decomposition of the initial returns reveals that this effect was driven by market overvaluation rather than IPO price discounts. Consistent with investor sentiment and signaling theory, our results suggest that investors held optimistic views towards GGF-backed companies. However, when assessing post-IPO operating and innovation performance, GGF-backed companies did not outperform their counterparts. Overall, this paper highlights the signaling effects of GGFs in the financial market and provides important policy implications for the design of GVC programs worldwide.
{"title":"Governmental venture capital and investor sentiment: Evidence from Chinese government guidance funds","authors":"Xinfei Huang ,&nbsp;Yue Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhe Zong","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102120","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102120","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While the role of government-backed venture capital (GVC) in influencing companies’ operating performance has been well-documented, its potential impact on the financial market remains less explored. This paper aims to fill this gap in the context of China’s venture capital market. Since 2002, the Chinese government has launched a type of policy VC fund—government guidance funds (GGFs)—to stimulate innovation, industrial transformation, and local economic growth. Using a sample of 2,860 IPO companies from 2010 to 2021, we show that GGF-backed IPOs exhibited higher initial returns than both non-VC-backed and non-GGF VC-backed IPOs. A decomposition of the initial returns reveals that this effect was driven by market overvaluation rather than IPO price discounts. Consistent with investor sentiment and signaling theory, our results suggest that investors held optimistic views towards GGF-backed companies. However, when assessing post-IPO operating and innovation performance, GGF-backed companies did not outperform their counterparts. Overall, this paper highlights the signaling effects of GGFs in the financial market and provides important policy implications for the design of GVC programs worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102120"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sovereign debt cost and economic complexity
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102121
Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez , Jorge M. Uribe , Oscar M. Valencia
This paper investigates how a country’s economic complexity impacts its sovereign yield spread relative to the U.S. A one-unit increase in the Economic Complexity Index reduces the 10-year yield spread by about 61 basis points, though this effect is non-significant for maturities under three years, affecting the spread curve slope. Using causal machine learning and predictive models, economic complexity is a top predictor alongside inflation and institutional factors. The paper explores mechanisms through which economic complexity reduces sovereign risk, emphasizing its role in productivity, output, income stability, and the likelihood of fiscal crises.
本文研究了一个国家的经济复杂性如何影响其相对于美国的主权收益率利差。经济复杂性指数每增加一个单位,10 年期收益率利差就会减少约 61 个基点,但对于 3 年以下的期限,这种影响并不显著,反而会影响利差曲线的斜率。利用因果机器学习和预测模型,经济复杂性是与通货膨胀和制度因素并列的首要预测因素。本文探讨了经济复杂性降低主权风险的机制,强调了其在生产率、产出、收入稳定性和财政危机可能性方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money
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