Development and validation of modified Liaoning score for predicting the prognosis of liver cirrhosis: a retrospective, international multicenter, observational study.
Xiaoting Song, Fernando Gomes Romeiro, Jing Wang, Yue Yin, Cyriac Abby Philips, Xinyi Yang, Xiaofeng Liu, Wenming Wu, Marcos Vinícius Tiveli Bernardinelli, Roger Santos de Souza, Arif Hussain Theruvath, Su Lin, Xingshun Qi
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Liaoning score has been developed and validated to predict the risk of esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis. This study aimed to further modify the Liaoning score by combining clinical and laboratory parameters to predict the long-term outcome of cirrhotic patients.
Methods: First, 474 cirrhotic patients were retrospectively enrolled from Shenyang, China as the training cohort. Independent predictors for death were identified by competing risk analyses, and then a new prognostic model, called as modified Liaoning score, was developed. Its performance was externally validated at three centers from Fuzhou, China (n = 1944), Jinan, China (n = 485), and São Paulo, Brazil (n = 221).
Results: Age, total bilirubin (TBIL), albumin (ALB), serum creatinine (SCr), and Liaoning score were independently associated with death in the training cohort. Modified Liaoning score = 0.159×Liaoning score + 0.010×TBIL(µmol/L)+0.029×age(years)+0.011×SCr(µmol/L)-0.037×ALB(g/L). The area under curve of modified Liaoning score was 0.714 (95%CI = 0.655-0.773), which was higher than that of Child-Pugh score (0.707, 95%CI = 0.645-0.770), MELD score (0.687, 95%CI = 0.623-0.751), and Liaoning score (0.583, 95%CI = 0.513-0.654). A modified Liaoning score of ≥ 1.296 suggested a higher cumulative incidence of death in liver cirrhosis (p < 0.001). Modified Liaoning score still had the highest prognostic performance in Chinese and Brazilian validation cohorts.
Conclusions: Modified Liaoning score can be considered for predicting the long-term outcome of cirrhotic patients.
期刊介绍：
The enormous health and economic burden of gastrointestinal disease worldwide warrants a sharp focus on the etiology, epidemiology, prevention, diagnosis, treatment and development of new therapies. By the end of the last century we had seen enormous advances, both in technologies to visualize disease and in curative therapies in areas such as gastric ulcer, with the advent first of the H2-antagonists and then the proton pump inhibitors - clear examples of how advances in medicine can massively benefit the patient. Nevertheless, specialists face ongoing challenges from a wide array of diseases of diverse etiology.
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