Spatial and temporal variation of seismic b-values across the West Tehran

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Journal of Seismology Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI:10.1007/s10950-024-10196-6
Mehrzad Azizi, Hamid Saffari
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Abstract

Until now, numerous efforts have been made to find earthquake precursors. One of the factors that can predict the occurrence of future earthquakes is a decrease in the b-value parameter. In this study, for the metropolis of Tehran, with a population of over 8 million, located on or near many active faults, it is estimated that if the maximum seismic potential of these faults happened again, the greatest disaster in human history would occur. In this case, the analyses indicate a minimum of several hundred thousand casualties and sometimes more than a million. In the current study, various faults around Tehran were investigated, and given that the faults on Tehran have not had serious seismic activity for over a thousand years, this article focused exclusively on adjacent faults, particularly the Eshtehard faults. Therefore, in the current study, the seismicity and tectonics of western Tehran were investigated by analyzing seismic parameters using earthquake data collected from 2003 to 2023. In general, the investigation of the temporal changes in the study area showed that the b-value decreased before the December 20, 2017, earthquake and an increasing trend afterward. Observing anomalies in the b-value before and after the main movement in the area shows that changes in this parameter can be considered a precursor for estimating the time and location of earthquakes. Therefore, a useful step can be taken toward knowing the local seismic hazards by using earthquake data recorded by seismic networks and continuously monitoring the changes in the b-value.

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德黑兰西部地震 b 值的时空变化
摘要 迄今为止,人们一直在努力寻找地震前兆。b 值参数的降低是预测未来地震发生的因素之一。在这项研究中,对于人口超过 800 万、位于许多活动断层上或其附近的大都市德黑兰,据估计,如果这些断层的最大地震潜能再次发生,将会发生人类历史上最大的灾难。在这种情况下,分析表明至少会造成几十万人的伤亡,有时甚至会超过一百万人。在本次研究中,对德黑兰周围的各种断层进行了调查,鉴于德黑兰的断层已经有一千多年没有发生过严重的地震活动,本文只关注邻近的断层,特别是 Eshtehard 断层。因此,在本研究中,通过使用 2003 年至 2023 年收集的地震数据分析地震参数,对德黑兰西部的地震活动和构造进行了研究。总体而言,对研究区域时间变化的调查显示,2017 年 12 月 20 日地震之前,b 值下降,之后呈上升趋势。观察该地区主要运动前后 b 值的异常情况表明,该参数的变化可被视为估计地震发生时间和地点的前兆。因此,利用地震台网记录的地震数据,持续监测 b 值的变化,可以为了解当地地震灾害迈出有益的一步。
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来源期刊
Journal of Seismology
Journal of Seismology 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
67
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Journal of Seismology is an international journal specialising in all observational and theoretical aspects related to earthquake occurrence. Research topics may cover: seismotectonics, seismicity, historical seismicity, seismic source physics, strong ground motion studies, seismic hazard or risk, engineering seismology, physics of fault systems, triggered and induced seismicity, mining seismology, volcano seismology, earthquake prediction, structural investigations ranging from local to regional and global studies with a particular focus on passive experiments.
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