Pub Date : 2026-01-17DOI: 10.1007/s10950-025-10356-2
Bo-Han Wang, Lian-Feng Zhao, Xiao-Bi Xie, Xi He, Yong Zhao, Zhen-Xing Yao
Between January and March 2022, fifteen shallow seismic events occurred near the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site in North Korea. These events raised concerns about their source nature, particularly in light of satellite observations suggesting renewed activity at the site. Here, we analyzed vertical-component seismograms recorded at 38 broadband stations with epicentral distances ranging from 70 to 600 km. Regional phases, Pn, Pg, Sn, and Lg, were used to calculate P/S spectral amplitude ratios. The network-averaged P/S-type spectral ratios were computed at a reference distance of 300 km to distinguish potential explosions from natural tectonic earthquakes. The spectral-ratio characteristics of all 15 shallow events closely align with those of tectonic earthquakes. The shallow events can be clearly separated from the underground-explosion population. Therefore, the 15 seismic events are likely to be natural tectonic earthquakes resulting from local stress imbalances.
• Multi-station P/S spectral ratios were used to identify 15 small-magnitude events near the North Korean nuclear test site.
• The seismic events are characterized by tectonic earthquakes, which are discriminated from historical underground nuclear tests.
{"title":"Discrimination of seismic event near the North Korean nuclear test site (January-March 2022) using multi-station P/S spectral ratios","authors":"Bo-Han Wang, Lian-Feng Zhao, Xiao-Bi Xie, Xi He, Yong Zhao, Zhen-Xing Yao","doi":"10.1007/s10950-025-10356-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-025-10356-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Between January and March 2022, fifteen shallow seismic events occurred near the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site in North Korea. These events raised concerns about their source nature, particularly in light of satellite observations suggesting renewed activity at the site. Here, we analyzed vertical-component seismograms recorded at 38 broadband stations with epicentral distances ranging from 70 to 600 km. Regional phases, Pn, Pg, Sn, and Lg, were used to calculate P/S spectral amplitude ratios. The network-averaged P/S-type spectral ratios were computed at a reference distance of 300 km to distinguish potential explosions from natural tectonic earthquakes. The spectral-ratio characteristics of all 15 shallow events closely align with those of tectonic earthquakes. The shallow events can be clearly separated from the underground-explosion population. Therefore, the 15 seismic events are likely to be natural tectonic earthquakes resulting from local stress imbalances.</p><p>• Multi-station P/S spectral ratios were used to identify 15 small-magnitude events near the North Korean nuclear test site.</p><p>• The seismic events are characterized by tectonic earthquakes, which are discriminated from historical underground nuclear tests.</p>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145983189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-17DOI: 10.1007/s10950-025-10351-7
Shaimaa A. M. Khair, Hamada Saadalla, Hazem Badreldin, Emad K. Mohamed, Medhat El Rayess, Iman F. Abu El-Nader, Sherif M. Elhady, Ahmed Shalaby
On December 27, 2022, a moderate earthquake (ML = 5.0) struck the western coast of the Gulf of Suez at 28.03° N and 33.47° E. The event was felt up to 500 km away and was recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) and the Egyptian National Strong Motion Network (ENSAN). The epicenter was located about 53 km from a previous ML = 5.1 earthquake that occurred in June 2013. This study determines the source parameters, focal mechanism, and moment tensor of the December 27, 2022 earthquake to better understand its rupture characteristics and tectonic context. Displacement spectra were analyzed to estimate the long-period spectral level and corner frequency, from which the seismic moment was derived (1.96 × 102⁰–1.44 × 1022 dyne·cm) and converted to moment magnitude. The estimated source radius ranged from 136 to 254 m, with stress drop values between 2.3 MPa and 61.3 MPa. The corner frequency, inversely related to rupture duration, varied from 5.2 Hz to 9.8 Hz. Moment tensor analysis of the mainshock and three aftershocks (ML ≈ 4.0) revealed predominantly normal faulting with minor strike-slip components, aligned mainly along NNW–SSE and NW–SE directions. This mechanism is consistent with the regional tectonic framework and previously reported fault structures of the Gulf of Suez. The results contribute valuable information for updating seismic hazard assessments in this economically strategic region.
{"title":"Tectonic consequences and source characterization of the December 27, 2022 earthquake on the western coast of the Gulf of Suez","authors":"Shaimaa A. M. Khair, Hamada Saadalla, Hazem Badreldin, Emad K. Mohamed, Medhat El Rayess, Iman F. Abu El-Nader, Sherif M. Elhady, Ahmed Shalaby","doi":"10.1007/s10950-025-10351-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-025-10351-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>On December 27, 2022, a moderate earthquake (M<sub>L</sub> = 5.0) struck the western coast of the Gulf of Suez at 28.03° N and 33.47° E. The event was felt up to 500 km away and was recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) and the Egyptian National Strong Motion Network (ENSAN). The epicenter was located about 53 km from a previous M<sub>L</sub> = 5.1 earthquake that occurred in June 2013. This study determines the source parameters, focal mechanism, and moment tensor of the December 27, 2022 earthquake to better understand its rupture characteristics and tectonic context. Displacement spectra were analyzed to estimate the long-period spectral level and corner frequency, from which the seismic moment was derived (1.96 × 10<sup>2</sup>⁰–1.44 × 10<sup>22</sup> dyne·cm) and converted to moment magnitude. The estimated source radius ranged from 136 to 254 m, with stress drop values between 2.3 MPa and 61.3 MPa. The corner frequency, inversely related to rupture duration, varied from 5.2 Hz to 9.8 Hz. Moment tensor analysis of the mainshock and three aftershocks (M<sub>L</sub> ≈ 4.0) revealed predominantly normal faulting with minor strike-slip components, aligned mainly along NNW–SSE and NW–SE directions. This mechanism is consistent with the regional tectonic framework and previously reported fault structures of the Gulf of Suez. The results contribute valuable information for updating seismic hazard assessments in this economically strategic region.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"29 6","pages":"1871 - 1896"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10950-025-10351-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145861254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-13DOI: 10.1007/s10950-025-10352-6
Muhammed Hossein Mousavi, Parva Sadeghi Alavijeh, Amir Talebi
In this research, we used the 2006–2024 seismic catalog from the Iranian Seismological Center for a comprehensive analysis of the seismicity parameters (b -value, the magnitude of completeness (MC), Fractal Dimension (DC), Seismic Moment (M0), and seismic quiescence (Z -value)) in the vicinity of Mw 6.2 Murmuri Earthquake of August 18, 2014, in the Zagros region of Iran. The MC exhibits spatial heterogeneity, with values ranging from 2.0–2.5 near Dehloran to 3.0–3.5 near the Mountain Front Fault (M.F.F.), reflecting detection challenges in complex fault zones. Spatial b -value distribution indicates low values near the mainshock epicenter and M.F.F., suggesting high-stress accumulation. The DC -value shows higher values near the epicenter, reflecting clustered seismicity. An orthogonal regression analysis reveals a strong negative correlation (r = -0.71) between b-value and DC -value in the region. The Z -value distribution in early 2014, using a 2-year time window, identifies significant quiescence near the epicenter, a precursor to the mainshock, transitioning to post-event activation. The spatial distribution of Z -values exhibits a complex pattern, with lower values (z ≈ − 1.0 to − 1.5) concentrated near the Murmuri epicenter, indicating a moderate decrease in seismic activity relative to the reference period. These findings highlight the M.F.F. as a high-hazard zone, with integrated parameter analysis enhancing precursory detection and post-event stress mapping.
{"title":"Spatial –temporal variations of seismicity parameters in vicinity of Mw 6.2 murmuri earthquake region in Zagros, Iran, on August 18, 2014","authors":"Muhammed Hossein Mousavi, Parva Sadeghi Alavijeh, Amir Talebi","doi":"10.1007/s10950-025-10352-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-025-10352-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this research, we used the 2006–2024 seismic catalog from the Iranian Seismological Center for a comprehensive analysis of the seismicity parameters (<i>b</i> -value, the magnitude of completeness (<i>M</i><sub><i>C</i></sub>), Fractal Dimension (<i>D</i><sub><i>C</i></sub>), Seismic Moment (M<sub>0</sub>), and seismic quiescence (<i>Z</i> -value)) in the vicinity of Mw 6.2 Murmuri Earthquake of August 18, 2014, in the Zagros region of Iran. The <i>M</i><sub><i>C</i></sub> exhibits spatial heterogeneity, with values ranging from 2.0–2.5 near Dehloran to 3.0–3.5 near the Mountain Front Fault (M.F.F.), reflecting detection challenges in complex fault zones. Spatial <i>b</i> -value distribution indicates low values near the mainshock epicenter and M.F.F., suggesting high-stress accumulation. The <i>D</i><sub><i>C</i></sub> -value shows higher values near the epicenter, reflecting clustered seismicity. An orthogonal regression analysis reveals a strong negative correlation (r = -0.71) between b-value and <i>D</i><sub><i>C</i></sub> -value in the region. The <i>Z</i> -value distribution in early 2014, using a 2-year time window, identifies significant quiescence near the epicenter, a precursor to the mainshock, transitioning to post-event activation. The spatial distribution of <i>Z</i> -values exhibits a complex pattern, with lower values (z ≈ − 1.0 to − 1.5) concentrated near the Murmuri epicenter, indicating a moderate decrease in seismic activity relative to the reference period. These findings highlight the M.F.F. as a high-hazard zone, with integrated parameter analysis enhancing precursory detection and post-event stress mapping.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"29 6","pages":"1851 - 1869"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145861272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-02DOI: 10.1007/s10950-025-10349-1
Olympa Baro, Sushma Brahma
The high pressure Guwahati–Siliguri Pipeline (GSPL) passes through the densely populated Guwahati city in northeast India. This study evaluates response of the GSPL segment within Guwahati city with a focus on the effect of seismic wave induced failure. Seismic sources within a 500 km radius of the Guwahati city are identified and classified into four seismic source regions of (1) Shillong Seismogenic Zone (SSZ), (2) Indo-Burmese Orogenic Front (IBOF), (3) Bengal Deltaic Seismic Block (BDSB), and (4) Eastern Himalayan Seismotectonic Belt (EHSB). The b-values are 1.00 ± 0.03 (SSZ), 1.03 ± 0.02 (IBOF), 0.66 ± 0.06 (BDSB), and 0.93 ± 0.02 (EHSB), indicating elevated seismic activity in BDSB. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (DSHA) reveal Oldham fault as the source for high level of ground shaking. Peak Ground Accelerations at bedrock level (PGAb) obtained from DSHA range between 0.219 g to 0.239 g. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) results reveal that for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years the PGAb range between 0.202 g to 0.242 g. At 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years the PGAb range between 0.126 g to 0.146 g. Hazard curves identify Kopili fault as the contributor for high levels of ground motion at Guwahati city. Further, the study shows that the cumulative strain experienced by the GSPL as a result of tension against axial strain due to seismic wave passage remains below the allowable limit of 3% for worst case scenario, 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years as well as 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.
{"title":"Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and strain evaluation along the Guwahati–Siliguri Pipeline","authors":"Olympa Baro, Sushma Brahma","doi":"10.1007/s10950-025-10349-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-025-10349-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The high pressure Guwahati–Siliguri Pipeline (GSPL) passes through the densely populated Guwahati city in northeast India. This study evaluates response of the GSPL segment within Guwahati city with a focus on the effect of seismic wave induced failure. Seismic sources within a 500 km radius of the Guwahati city are identified and classified into four seismic source regions of (1) Shillong Seismogenic Zone (SSZ), (2) Indo-Burmese Orogenic Front (IBOF), (3) Bengal Deltaic Seismic Block (BDSB), and (4) Eastern Himalayan Seismotectonic Belt (EHSB). The <i>b-value</i>s are 1.00 ± 0.03 (SSZ), 1.03 ± 0.02 (IBOF), 0.66 ± 0.06 (BDSB), and 0.93 ± 0.02 (EHSB), indicating elevated seismic activity in BDSB. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (DSHA) reveal Oldham fault as the source for high level of ground shaking. Peak Ground Accelerations at bedrock level (PGA<sub>b</sub>) obtained from DSHA range between 0.219 g to 0.239 g. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) results reveal that for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years the PGA<sub>b</sub> range between 0.202 g to 0.242 g. At 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years the PGA<sub>b</sub> range between 0.126 g to 0.146 g. Hazard curves identify Kopili fault as the contributor for high levels of ground motion at Guwahati city. Further, the study shows that the cumulative strain experienced by the GSPL as a result of tension against axial strain due to seismic wave passage remains below the allowable limit of 3% for worst case scenario, 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years as well as 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"29 6","pages":"1809 - 1828"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145861243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-28DOI: 10.1007/s10950-025-10350-8
Gang Yang, Yanhong Zha, Song Yu, Dongning Lei, Qing Hu, Jianchao Wu
On January 7, 2025, an Ms 6.8 earthquake struck Dingri County, Shigatse, Tibet Autonomous Region, causing severe casualties and property losses. This study utilized Sentinel-1 satellite data and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology to obtain the co-seismic surface deformation field, invert the fine geometric parameters and slip distribution of the seismogenic fault, and calculate regional co-seismic Coulomb stress changes. Results show that both ascending and descending orbit radar satellites captured the co-seismic deformation, with a field range of 160 km × 100 km and surface rupture of the seismogenic fault. The maximum Line-of-Sight (LOS) deformations were -1.73 m (ascending) and -1.26 m (descending), while azimuth deformations reached -1.11 m and -1.10 m, respectively. Three-dimensional deformation revealed significant subsidence (1.69 m vertical) on the west-side hanging wall and uplift (0.22 m max) on the east-side footwall, indicating normal fault movement along the Dengmocuo Fault. Inversion constrained by InSAR data showed the fault is 32 km long, 14 km wide, with a strike of 187°, dip angle of 56°, and slip angle of -68°, rupturing mainly at 0–16 km depth. The maximum slip was 3.93 m, seismic moment 4.03 × 101⁹ N·m, and moment magnitude Mw 7.04. More than 80 aftershocks with M ≥ 3.0 near the Dengmocuo fault were mainly caused by the increase in Coulomb stress caused by the Dingri Mw7.04 earthquake. Considering the influence of historical earthquakes and background tectonic stress, the Coulomb stress change value of the Dingjie County seat will increase by 0.01 MPa after 2047, indicating the possibility of earthquakes occurring. The increase in Coulomb stress change value in the county seat of Gangba is greater than 0.3 MPa, indicating a high possibility of earthquake occurrence.
{"title":"InSAR coseismic deformation, fault slip inversion and coulomb stress evolution of the Xizang Dingri earthquake on January 7, 2025, China","authors":"Gang Yang, Yanhong Zha, Song Yu, Dongning Lei, Qing Hu, Jianchao Wu","doi":"10.1007/s10950-025-10350-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-025-10350-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>On January 7, 2025, an Ms 6.8 earthquake struck Dingri County, Shigatse, Tibet Autonomous Region, causing severe casualties and property losses. This study utilized Sentinel-1 satellite data and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology to obtain the co-seismic surface deformation field, invert the fine geometric parameters and slip distribution of the seismogenic fault, and calculate regional co-seismic Coulomb stress changes. Results show that both ascending and descending orbit radar satellites captured the co-seismic deformation, with a field range of 160 km × 100 km and surface rupture of the seismogenic fault. The maximum Line-of-Sight (LOS) deformations were -1.73 m (ascending) and -1.26 m (descending), while azimuth deformations reached -1.11 m and -1.10 m, respectively. Three-dimensional deformation revealed significant subsidence (1.69 m vertical) on the west-side hanging wall and uplift (0.22 m max) on the east-side footwall, indicating normal fault movement along the Dengmocuo Fault. Inversion constrained by InSAR data showed the fault is 32 km long, 14 km wide, with a strike of 187°, dip angle of 56°, and slip angle of -68°, rupturing mainly at 0–16 km depth. The maximum slip was 3.93 m, seismic moment 4.03 × 10<sup>1</sup>⁹ N·m, and moment magnitude Mw 7.04. More than 80 aftershocks with M ≥ 3.0 near the Dengmocuo fault were mainly caused by the increase in Coulomb stress caused by the Dingri Mw7.04 earthquake. Considering the influence of historical earthquakes and background tectonic stress, the Coulomb stress change value of the Dingjie County seat will increase by 0.01 MPa after 2047, indicating the possibility of earthquakes occurring. The increase in Coulomb stress change value in the county seat of Gangba is greater than 0.3 MPa, indicating a high possibility of earthquake occurrence.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"29 6","pages":"1829 - 1849"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145861271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Main Marmara Fault (MMF), the westernmost segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), constitutes a prominent seismic gap beneath the Sea of Marmara, Türkiye. On 23 April 2025, a moderate earthquake of Mw 6.3 occurred offshore Silivri-Kumburgaz, at the transitional zone between the creeping Central Basin and the locked Kumburgaz segment. The present work provides a comprehensive investigation of the source properties, rupture complexity, and seismotectonic context of the 23 April 2025 Mw 6.3 Silivri High-Kumburgaz Basin earthquake and the subsequent aftershock activity. A combination of the advanced centroid moment tensor (CMT), finite-fault slip inversions, and precise relocations of the aftershock enabled to primarily resolve source and rupture properties, and to evaluate the co- and post-seismic deformation associated to the mainshock along the MMF. Moment tensor inversions performed on local, regional, and/or teleseismic data consistently indicate a dominantly right-lateral strike-slip rupture with a slight normal component. The spatiotemporal evolution of rupture kinematics, as inferred from the finite fault inversions suggests a bilateral co-seismic displacement for the 2025 earthquake that terminated toward the west, where a documented aseismic creep regime presumably reduces a substantial amount of stress. The observed post-seismic deformation, as identified by precise relocations of the aftershock sequence, indicates a distinct eastward propagation within the initial 24 h, extending up to approximately 20 km east from the epicenter of the mainshock. We observe that the mainshock nucleates within a low–high Vs transition zone between the partially creeping Central Basin and the locked Kumburgaz segment of the MMF. This implies the moderate mechanical strength of rocks can enable these transition zones as ideal spots where large crustal earthquakes nucleate. Our study favors an elevated probability of a future, large earthquake (M7 +), which could potentially pose a significant threat to the mega-city of Istanbul as the recent Mw 6.3 mainshock may have led to an increased stress on the locked part of the segment remained quiescent since 1766.
{"title":"Source and rupture properties of the 23 April 2025 Mw 6.3 Silivri High-Kumburgaz basin earthquake threatening İstanbul, NW Türkiye","authors":"Tuna Eken, Tuncay Taymaz, Seda Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Tahir Serkan Irmak, Ceyhun Erman, Berkan Özkan, Buse Turunçtur, Metin Kahraman","doi":"10.1007/s10950-025-10342-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-025-10342-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Main Marmara Fault (MMF), the westernmost segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), constitutes a prominent seismic gap beneath the Sea of Marmara, Türkiye. On 23 April 2025, a moderate earthquake of Mw 6.3 occurred offshore Silivri-Kumburgaz, at the transitional zone between the creeping Central Basin and the locked Kumburgaz segment. The present work provides a comprehensive investigation of the source properties, rupture complexity, and seismotectonic context of the 23 April 2025 Mw 6.3 Silivri High-Kumburgaz Basin earthquake and the subsequent aftershock activity. A combination of the advanced centroid moment tensor (CMT), finite-fault slip inversions, and precise relocations of the aftershock enabled to primarily resolve source and rupture properties, and to evaluate the co- and post-seismic deformation associated to the mainshock along the MMF. Moment tensor inversions performed on local, regional, and/or teleseismic data consistently indicate a dominantly right-lateral strike-slip rupture with a slight normal component. The spatiotemporal evolution of rupture kinematics, as inferred from the finite fault inversions suggests a bilateral co-seismic displacement for the 2025 earthquake that terminated toward the west, where a documented aseismic creep regime presumably reduces a substantial amount of stress. The observed post-seismic deformation, as identified by precise relocations of the aftershock sequence, indicates a distinct eastward propagation within the initial 24 h, extending up to approximately 20 km east from the epicenter of the mainshock. We observe that the mainshock nucleates within a low–high Vs transition zone between the partially creeping Central Basin and the locked Kumburgaz segment of the MMF. This implies the moderate mechanical strength of rocks can enable these transition zones as ideal spots where large crustal earthquakes nucleate. Our study favors an elevated probability of a future, large earthquake (M7 +), which could potentially pose a significant threat to the mega-city of Istanbul as the recent Mw 6.3 mainshock may have led to an increased stress on the locked part of the segment remained quiescent since 1766.</p>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"29 6","pages":"1727 - 1755"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145861270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-10DOI: 10.1007/s10950-025-10335-7
Raúl R. Castro, Carlos E. Reinoza, Favio Cruz-Hernández
We used accelerograms from foreshocks recorded by the closest strong-motion stations to the epicentral location of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake (Mw7.2) to estimate S-wave near-source attenuation and to investigate the spatial–temporal evolution of the spectral decay parameter kappa (κ). We found that κ estimated from the foreshocks has significantly higher values compared with those estimated using the mainshock recordings. Since κ is inversely proportional to the quality factor Q and this may vary depending on the state of stress and the presence of fluids, this observation indicates that Q was higher in the epicentral region during the mainshock rupture process, probably due to a higher concentration of stress. We calculated the average regional S-wave attenuation (widetilde{kappa }(r)) before and during the mainshock using a nonparametric approach, and we also found higher attenuation before the occurrence of the main event, suggesting a possible role of fluid flow in the rupture process of the main rupture. Before and during the mainshock (widetilde{kappa }(r)) increased with increasing hypocenter distance, but at short distances (r < 17 km) (widetilde{kappa }(r)) increased faster before the main shock. However, during the main rupture (widetilde{kappa }(r)) increased faster than during the foreshock sequence for r > 17 km, suggesting that the tectonic stress probably decreased beyond that distance. 17 days before the mainshock the near-source attenuation (({kappa }_{s})) was very low in the ruptured area, ({kappa }_{s}=0.0374) s, increasing during the next 30 h to ({kappa }_{s}=) 0.0490 s, then ({kappa }_{s}) started to decrease to the value of ({kappa }_{s}=0.0024) s during the occurrence of the main event. We interpret this decrease in ({kappa }_{s}) as due to increasing Q resulting from an important increase of tectonic stress before the occurrence of the Mw7.2 earthquake. We conclude that κ, in combination with other geophysical parameters, it is useful to understand the preparatory phases of the earthquake rupture process.
{"title":"Near-source attenuation of foreshocks preceding the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja California, Mexico earthquake (Mw7.2)","authors":"Raúl R. Castro, Carlos E. Reinoza, Favio Cruz-Hernández","doi":"10.1007/s10950-025-10335-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-025-10335-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We used accelerograms from foreshocks recorded by the closest strong-motion stations to the epicentral location of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake (<i>Mw</i>7.2) to estimate <i>S</i>-wave near-source attenuation and to investigate the spatial–temporal evolution of the spectral decay parameter kappa (κ). We found that κ estimated from the foreshocks has significantly higher values compared with those estimated using the mainshock recordings. Since κ is inversely proportional to the quality factor <i>Q</i> and this may vary depending on the state of stress and the presence of fluids, this observation indicates that <i>Q</i> was higher in the epicentral region during the mainshock rupture process, probably due to a higher concentration of stress. We calculated the average regional <i>S</i>-wave attenuation <span>(widetilde{kappa }(r))</span> before and during the mainshock using a nonparametric approach, and we also found higher attenuation before the occurrence of the main event, suggesting a possible role of fluid flow in the rupture process of the main rupture. Before and during the mainshock <span>(widetilde{kappa }(r))</span> increased with increasing hypocenter distance, but at short distances (<i>r</i> < 17 km) <span>(widetilde{kappa }(r))</span> increased faster before the main shock. However, during the main rupture <span>(widetilde{kappa }(r))</span> increased faster than during the foreshock sequence for <i>r</i> > 17 km, suggesting that the tectonic stress probably decreased beyond that distance. 17 days before the mainshock the near-source attenuation (<span>({kappa }_{s})</span>) was very low in the ruptured area, <span>({kappa }_{s}=0.0374)</span> s, increasing during the next 30 h to <span>({kappa }_{s}=)</span> 0.0490 s, then <span>({kappa }_{s})</span> started to decrease to the value of <span>({kappa }_{s}=0.0024)</span> s during the occurrence of the main event. We interpret this decrease in <span>({kappa }_{s})</span> as due to increasing <i>Q</i> resulting from an important increase of tectonic stress before the occurrence of the <i>Mw</i>7.2 earthquake. We conclude that <i>κ</i>, in combination with other geophysical parameters, it is useful to understand the preparatory phases of the earthquake rupture process.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"29 6","pages":"1559 - 1577"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145861267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-03DOI: 10.1007/s10950-025-10346-4
Yuan Xue, Dan Hu, Junreng Ge, Xinyu Yao, Mingyue Dai, Bingyan Fan, Yu Ming, Muchen Lin
The three fault zones of Longmenshan, Xianshuihe, and Anninghe‒Zemuhe & Daliangshan, which constitute the large-scale fault system in western Sichuan, China, were selected as the research objects for statistical analyses and mining of the underlying regularities in seismic event records. In this study, earthquake catalogues from 1970–2023 were collected, the Gutenberg-Richter (G‒R) relation was fitted, the seismicity was analysed, and the magnitude of completeness (Mc) was obtained. According to Mc, the earthquake catalogue of each fault zone was divided into three groups of data according to magnitude: M ≥ 3.0 (complete magnitude group), M = 3.0 ~ 4.4 (low-magnitude group), and M ≥ 4.5 (high-magnitude group), and time series of seismic frequencies were established. Multiple nonparametric testing methods were subsequently used to statistically infer and analyse the differences in the time series of seismic frequencies among different fault zones. There were significant differences among all the series, with the exception of the high-magnitude group of the Longmenshan fault zone and the low- and high-magnitude groups of the Xianshuihe fault zone. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation coefficient and cross-correlation functions (CCF) among the series of each fault zone are calculated. There were different degrees of synchronous or lagged (delayed) effects among the complete magnitude groups, low-magnitude groups, and high-magnitude groups of different fault zones. On the basis of these differences and correlations, multiple linear stepwise regression equations were applied to establish correlation models that quantitatively characterize the correlations among the seismic frequencies of the three fault zones, and practical explanations were given to reveal the seismic correlation relationships and regularities. This study provides not only references for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in the research area but also research ideas and approaches for similar analyses of the seismic differences and correlations among adjacent fault zones in large-scale fault systems.
{"title":"Statistical inferences of differences and correlations in the seismic frequencies of large-scale fault zones in Western Sichuan, China","authors":"Yuan Xue, Dan Hu, Junreng Ge, Xinyu Yao, Mingyue Dai, Bingyan Fan, Yu Ming, Muchen Lin","doi":"10.1007/s10950-025-10346-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-025-10346-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The three fault zones of Longmenshan, Xianshuihe, and Anninghe‒Zemuhe & Daliangshan, which constitute the large-scale fault system in western Sichuan, China, were selected as the research objects for statistical analyses and mining of the underlying regularities in seismic event records. In this study, earthquake catalogues from 1970–2023 were collected, the Gutenberg-Richter (G‒R) relation was fitted, the seismicity was analysed, and the magnitude of completeness (Mc) was obtained. According to Mc, the earthquake catalogue of each fault zone was divided into three groups of data according to magnitude: M ≥ 3.0 (complete magnitude group), M = 3.0 ~ 4.4 (low-magnitude group), and M ≥ 4.5 (high-magnitude group), and time series of seismic frequencies were established. Multiple nonparametric testing methods were subsequently used to statistically infer and analyse the differences in the time series of seismic frequencies among different fault zones. There were significant differences among all the series, with the exception of the high-magnitude group of the Longmenshan fault zone and the low- and high-magnitude groups of the Xianshuihe fault zone. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation coefficient and cross-correlation functions (CCF) among the series of each fault zone are calculated. There were different degrees of synchronous or lagged (delayed) effects among the complete magnitude groups, low-magnitude groups, and high-magnitude groups of different fault zones. On the basis of these differences and correlations, multiple linear stepwise regression equations were applied to establish correlation models that quantitatively characterize the correlations among the seismic frequencies of the three fault zones, and practical explanations were given to reveal the seismic correlation relationships and regularities. This study provides not only references for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in the research area but also research ideas and approaches for similar analyses of the seismic differences and correlations among adjacent fault zones in large-scale fault systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"29 6","pages":"1771 - 1792"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145861249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
On January 7, 2025, a Mw 7.1 earthquake struck Southern Tibet, causing significant damage and loss of life. The earthquake and its aftershocks were widely felt across South Asia. This study investigates the seismotectonic characteristics of the event by analyzing its focal mechanism solution, stress tensor inversion, and Coulomb stress changes. The focal mechanism solution was determined using the ISOLA software with full waveform inversion data from the broadband seismometer in Mizoram, Tripura, India, and Tibet, China. Results indicate a normal faulting mechanism with a NNW-SSE strike. An iterative stress tensor inversion using 52 focal mechanism solutions (Mw > 5) from 1976 to 2025, including the Mw 7.1 mainshock, suggests an E-W extensional and nearly N-S compressional stress regime, confirming the regional tectonic influences. Coulomb stress change analysis indicated a stress perturbation ranging from -5 bars (-0.5 MPa) to + 5 bars (+ 0.5 MPa). These stress changes align with the aftershock distributions, suggesting a strong influence of stress transfer. This study contributes to a broader understanding of earthquake interactions in the region and seismic hazard assessment.
2025年1月7日,藏南地区发生里氏7.1级地震,造成重大财产损失和人员伤亡。这次地震及其余震在整个南亚都有广泛的震感。通过震源机制解、应力张量反演、库仑应力变化等方面的分析,探讨了该地震的地震构造特征。利用ISOLA软件,利用印度米佐拉姆邦、特里普拉邦和中国西藏宽带地震仪的全波形反演数据,确定了震源机制解。结果表明,北西—南西走向为正常断裂机制。1976 - 2025年52个震源机制解(Mw > 5)(包括Mw 7.1主震)的应力张量迭代反演表明,该地区存在东西向伸展和近北南向挤压的应力状态,证实了区域构造的影响。库仑应力变化分析表明,应力扰动范围为-5 bar (-0.5 MPa) ~ + 5 bar (+ 0.5 MPa)。这些应力变化与余震分布一致,表明应力传递的影响很大。该研究有助于更广泛地了解该地区的地震相互作用和地震危险性评估。
{"title":"Seismotectonic analysis of the January 7, 2025, Mw 7.1 earthquake in Southern Tibet","authors":"Zosangliana Ralte, Santanu Baruah, Kimlina Gogoi, Lalruatpuia Tlau, Saitluanga Sailo, Manoj Kumar Phukan, Sebastiano D’Amico, Sujit Dasgupta, Sowrav Saikia, Sanjeev Kr Bhattacharyya","doi":"10.1007/s10950-025-10344-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-025-10344-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>On January 7, 2025, a Mw 7.1 earthquake struck Southern Tibet, causing significant damage and loss of life. The earthquake and its aftershocks were widely felt across South Asia. This study investigates the seismotectonic characteristics of the event by analyzing its focal mechanism solution, stress tensor inversion, and Coulomb stress changes. The focal mechanism solution was determined using the ISOLA software with full waveform inversion data from the broadband seismometer in Mizoram, Tripura, India, and Tibet, China. Results indicate a normal faulting mechanism with a NNW-SSE strike. An iterative stress tensor inversion using 52 focal mechanism solutions (Mw > 5) from 1976 to 2025, including the Mw 7.1 mainshock, suggests an E-W extensional and nearly N-S compressional stress regime, confirming the regional tectonic influences. Coulomb stress change analysis indicated a stress perturbation ranging from -5 bars (-0.5 MPa) to + 5 bars (+ 0.5 MPa). These stress changes align with the aftershock distributions, suggesting a strong influence of stress transfer. This study contributes to a broader understanding of earthquake interactions in the region and seismic hazard assessment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"29 6","pages":"1757 - 1770"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145861264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}