Extended Streamflow Prediction for Russian Rivers

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI:10.3103/s1068373923120026
N. K. Semenova, Yu. A. Simonov, A. V. Khristoforov
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Abstract

The possibility of extended predictions of the Russian river streamflow is considered based on dynamic approach, in which the HBV-96 water-balance runoff formation model is used jointly with the extended ensemble meteorological forecast obtained with the INM5 model. Twelve river basins located in different climatic and physiographic zones of Russia were selected for analysis. The average annual and average monthly discharges, as well as the annual maximum streamflow, were predicted with a lead time of 1–5 years. The test on the reanalysis data for the period from 1980 to 2020 has shown that the applied dynamic approach makes it possible to adequately assess possible interannual fluctuations in the streamflow and its intraannual distribution. The ensemble of forecasts of the annual and maximum streamflow for the period 2023–2026 obtained using the HBV-96 and INM5 models is consistent with the data on the water regime of the analyzed rivers.

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俄罗斯河流的扩展水流预测
摘要 基于动态方法考虑了俄罗斯河流流量扩展预测的可能性,在该方法中,HBV-96 水量平衡径流形成模型与 INM5 模型获得的扩展集合气象预报联合使用。分析选取了位于俄罗斯不同气候和地貌区的 12 个河流流域。预测了年均和月均排水量,以及年最大径流量,预测时间为 1-5 年。对 1980 年至 2020 年期间的再分析数据进行的测试表明,所采用的动态方法能够充分评估可能出现的河水流量年际波动及其年内分布。使用 HBV-96 和 INM5 模型对 2023-2026 年期间的年径流量和最大径流量进行的集合预测与所分析河流的水系数据一致。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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