Short-range Streamflow Forecasting for Russian Rivers Using the HBV-96 Model and the COSMO-Ru System

IF 1.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI:10.3103/s1068373923120014
Yu. A. Simonov, S. V. Borsch, N. K. Semenova, A. V. Khristoforov
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Abstract

A method for short-range forecasting of average daily streamflow is proposed. The method uses the HBV-96 conceptual model of river runoff formation and the COSMO-Ru operational numerical weather prediction system. The method has been implemented for 546 river basins located throughout Russia. An archive of the required hydrometeorological information for the period from 2010 to 2019 has been formed. The method has been developed using the data for the first seven years and verified on independent material with the ones for the last three years. The verification results have shown that the method allows obtaining satisfactory forecasts for a quite large number of river basins. The results make it possible to use the proposed method within the framework of an automated system for preparing and issuing short-range forecasts for the Russian river streamflow.

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利用 HBV-96 模型和 COSMO-Ru 系统进行俄罗斯河流短程流量预测
摘要 提出了一种短程预报日平均流量的方法。该方法采用了 HBV-96 河流径流形成概念模型和 COSMO-Ru 数值天气业务预报系统。该方法已在俄罗斯全国 546 个流域实施。2010 年至 2019 年期间所需的水文气象信息档案已经建立。该方法是利用前七年的数据开发的,并利用最近三年的数据对独立材料进行了验证。验证结果表明,该方法可以对相当多的流域进行令人满意的预报。这些结果使得在一个自动系统框架内使用所建议的方法成为可能,该系统用于编制和发布俄罗斯河流流量的短期预报。
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来源期刊
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
1.70
自引率
28.60%
发文量
44
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Russian Meteorology and Hydrology is a peer reviewed journal that covers topical issues of hydrometeorological science and practice: methods of forecasting weather and hydrological phenomena, climate monitoring issues, environmental pollution, space hydrometeorology, agrometeorology.
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