Impacts of natural and anthropogenic forcings on historical and future changes in global-land surface air temperature in CMIP6–DAMIP simulations

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI:10.1007/s10584-024-03686-6

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Abstract

To better understand the contributions of various external factors to past and future changes in global and regional climate, this study investigates the impacts of natural and anthropogenic forcings on historical and future changes in global land surface air temperature (GLSAT) using model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Results show that the anthropogenic forcing (ANT) can be robustly detected and separated from the response to the natural external forcing (NAT) since the 1970s. The observed warming changes since the 1950s are primarily attributed to the GHG forcing. ANT contributes a robust warming trend of 0.1–0.2 °C per decade for global landmass during 1951–2020 and cumulative warming by 2011–2020 (relative to 1901–1930) of 1.0–1.6 °C. These attributable warmings largely encompass the observed warming trend of ~ 0.18 °C per decade in 1951–2012 and the observed warming of 1.59 °C by 2011–2020 (relative to 1850–1900) for global landmass reported in IPCC AR5 and AR6, respectively. The anthropogenic warming is projected to increase by 3–6 °C for most global landmass under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, especially in the high latitudes Northern Hemisphere by the late twenty-first century, along with an increase in the mean and widespread flattening of the probability distribution functions (PDFs). The anthropogenic aerosol (AA) cooling effect is projected to decrease only modestly, from 0.7 °C in 2011-20 to 0.6 °C by the late 21st century, for the SSP2-4.5 scenario.

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CMIP6-DAMIP 模拟中自然和人为作用力对全球陆地表面气温历史和未来变化的影响

摘要为了更好地理解各种外部因素对过去和未来全球和区域气候变化的贡献，本研究利用耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段（CMIP6）中的探测和归因模式相互比较项目（DAMIP）的模式模拟，研究了自然和人为作用力对历史和未来全球陆地表面气温（GLSAT）变化的影响。结果表明，自 20 世纪 70 年代以来，人为强迫（ANT）可以被稳健地探测出来，并与自然外部强迫（NAT）的响应区分开来。自 20 世纪 50 年代以来观测到的变暖变化主要归因于温室气体强迫。在 1951-2020 年期间，ANT 使全球陆地面积呈现出每十年 0.1-0.2 ℃ 的强劲变暖趋势，到 2011-2020 年，累计变暖（相对于 1901-1930 年）为 1.0-1.6 ℃。这些可归因的升温在很大程度上包含了 IPCC 第五次评估报告和第六次评估报告中分别报告的全球陆地 1951-2012 年每十年约 0.18 ℃ 的观测升温趋势和 2011-2020 年 1.59 ℃ 的观测升温（相对于 1850-1900 年）。在 SSP2-4.5 情景下，预计到 21 世纪晚期，全球大部分陆地的人为变暖将增加 3-6 ℃，尤其是在北半球高纬度地区，同时平均值将增加，概率分布函数（PDF）将普遍变平。在 SSP2-4.5 情景下，人为气溶胶（AA）冷却效应预计只会略有下降，从 2011-20 年的 0.7 ℃ 降至 21 世纪晚期的 0.6 ℃。

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来源期刊

Climatic Change 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

10.20

自引率

4.20%

发文量

180

审稿时长

7.5 months

期刊介绍： Climatic Change is dedicated to the totality of the problem of climatic variability and change - its descriptions, causes, implications and interactions among these. The purpose of the journal is to provide a means of exchange among those working in different disciplines on problems related to climatic variations. This means that authors have an opportunity to communicate the essence of their studies to people in other climate-related disciplines and to interested non-disciplinarians, as well as to report on research in which the originality is in the combinations of (not necessarily original) work from several disciplines. The journal also includes vigorous editorial and book review sections.