Climatic Change最新文献

Art x Climate was the first-ever gallery of visual art to be included in the National Climate Assessment. This letter outlines the purpose and process of Art x Climate and highlights three Art x Climate artists and their work. The letter concludes with lessons learned from this project: the need for cross-disciplinary respect among the arts and sciences, the wide range of themes and artworks centered around climate change, and the ability of art to facilitate new collaborations and bring more people into the climate change conversation.

Climate change significantly impacts health globally, especially in densely populated, rapidly industrialising and ecologically diverse countries like Nigeria. We analysed climate change policies, studies, programs, and events at the national and subnational levels in Nigeria and explored their effects on public and respiratory health. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMAScR) checklist, we searched PubMed, African Journals Online (AJoL), Google Scholar and government data repositories on January 10, 2024. We synthesised results using an adapted sector-level framework based on the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Our searches returned 262 items, of which 32, including research studies, reports and grey documents, were retained for synthesis. Although some policies and programmes, like the Climate Change Act and Nigerian Climate and Health Observatory, exist, implementation is limited across many settings. Key reported respiratory pollutants in Nigeria include particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), gaseous emissions (CO, SO₂, NOx), agricultural by-products (NH₃, H₂S), greenhouse gases (CH₄, CO₂), and microbial contaminants, which collectively increase the risk of respiratory inflammation, infections, and exacerbations of chronic respiratory symptoms and diseases. Our findings underscore a clear link between climate change and worsening respiratory health in many Nigerian settings. The current policies and programmes' have limited impact, calling for comprehensive reforms, including improved enforcement and targeted action against major pollution sources, recognition of environmental rights, and stronger public health initiatives and community action.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-03880-0.

In light of the far-reaching consequences of ineffective natural resource management, an expanding body of scholarly investigation has emphasized environmental and economic repercussions while largely overlooking the implications for public health and social development. The present research fills this gap by investigating the influence of green technological innovation and natural resource management on health risks and social development in eleven leading industrial economies. The analysis employs extensive second-generation econometrics techniques on data framework from 1990 to 2019, controlling for variables such as gross domestic product, economic complexity, fossil fuel consumption, and foreign direct investment. The results of the CS-ARDL model indicate that green technological innovations significantly reduce health risks in both the short and long run while also improving social development. Conversely, resource management increases health risks but also contributes to social development in underlying countries. Economic complexity initially increases health risks in the short run but eventually improves in the long run. Additionally, gross domestic product positively affects social development but imposes health risks in the long run. Robustness checks, specifically the AMG test, confirm the results’ consistency and reliability. The findings emphasize the importance of implementing appropriate resource policy measures to effectively reduce health risks through responsible resource management practices and the widespread diffusion of green technology.

Historically, the basic materials industry has had relatively low R&D expenditure levels, raising concerns about meeting 2050 climate targets given the crucial need for innovation and technology advancement in this industry. Decisive government intervention and active support for key technological pathways are required to address significant market failures and catalyse industrial decarbonisation. This Essay lays out the economic justification for an active green industrial policy and proposes key policy design principles, with the aim of striking a balance between facilitating the green industrial transition and maintaining cost efficiency in meeting climate targets.

Since the launch of the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), we have witnessed a steady increase in the number of companies committing to climate targets for large-scale reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While recent studies present various methodologies for establishing climate targets (e.g., sectoral decarbonization approach, near-term, long-term, net zero), we still don’t understand the explanatory factors determining the level of ambition companies demonstrate in target setting. In this paper, a two-stage qualitative study is conducted with a sample of 22 companies from five countries. First, these companies’ publicly disclosed climate targets are evaluated according to four target ambition criteria: target type, scope, timeframe, and temperature alignment. Secondly, multiple explanatory factors for target setting were identified during the content analysis of the interviews to see how present these factors appear in the ambition levels. Within companies with highly ambitious climate targets, the findings indicate that certain factors are highly present, including leadership engagement, continual management support, employee involvement, participation in climate initiatives, and stakeholder collaboration. Conversely, none of these key factors are highly present in companies with less ambitious climate targets. Rather, these companies strongly identify the initiating factors of market-related pressures and non-market stakeholder influence as being the driving forces behind their target setting. This paper contributes to the literature on corporate responses to climate change by expanding our understanding of explanatory factors for different corporate climate target ambition levels.

Quantifying the vulnerability of population to multi-faceted climate change impacts on human well-being remains an urgent task. Recently, weather and climate extremes have evolved into bivariate events that heighten climate risks in unexpected ways. To investigate the potential impacts of climate extremes, this study analyzes the frequency, magnitude, and severity of observed and future compound hot-dry extremes (CHDEs) over East Africa. The CHDE events were computed from the observed precipitation and maximum temperature data of the Climatic Research Unit gridded Timeseries version five (CRU TS4.05) and outputs of climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, this study quantifies the population exposure to CHDE events based on future population density datasets under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Using the 75th/90th and 25th/10th percentile of precipitation and temperature as threshold to define severe and moderate events, the results show that the East African region experienced multiple moderate and severe CHDE events during the last twenty years. Based on a weighted multi-model ensemble, projections indicate that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the frequency of moderate CHDE will double, and severe CHDE will be 1.6 times that of baseline (i.e., an increase of 60%). Strong evidence of an upward trajectory is noted after 2080 for both moderate and severe CHDE. Southern parts of Tanzania and northeastern Kenya are likely to be the most affected, with all models agreeing (signal-to-noise ratio, SNR > 1), indicating a likely higher magnitude of change during the mid- and far-future. Consequentially, population exposure to these impacts is projected to increase by up to 60% for moderate and severe CHDEs in parts of southern Tanzania. Attribution analysis highlights that climate change is the primary driver of CHDE exposure under the two emission pathways. The current study underscores the urgent need to reduce CO₂ emissions to prevent exceeding global warming thresholds and to develop regional adaptation measures.

Contextualizing current increases in Northern Hemisphere temperatures is precluded by the short instrumental record of the past ca. 120 years and the dearth of temperature-sensitive proxy records, particularly at lower latitudes south of <50 °N. We develop a network of 29 blue intensity chronologies derived from tree rings of Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière and Picea rubens Sarg. trees distributed across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast USA (MANE)—a region underrepresented by multi-centennial temperature records. We use this network to reconstruct mean March-September air temperatures back to 1461 CE based on a model that explains 62% of the instrumental temperature variance from 1901−1976 CE. Since 1998 CE, MANE summer temperatures are consistently the warmest within the context of the past 561 years exceeding the 1951−1980 mean of +1.3 °C. Cool summers across MANE were frequently volcanically forced, with significant (p<0.05) temperature departures associated with 80% of the largest tropical (n=13) and extratropical (n=15) eruptions since 1461 CE. Yet, we find that more of the identified cool events in the record were likely unforced by volcanism and either related to stochastic variability or atmospheric circulation via significant associations (p<0.05) to regional, coastal sea-surface temperatures, 500-hpa geopotential height, and 300-hpa meridional and zonal wind vectors. Expanding the MANE network to the west and south and combining it with existing temperature-sensitive proxies across North America is an important next step toward producing a gridded temperature reconstruction field for North America.

Recently, the body of research that assesses belief in climate change has grown, as has the number of studies appraising how experience with the impacts of climate change might affect public opinion. However, less research has addressed the question of whether/how people believe climate change will manifest itself in their own lives, or how it might affect behavioral responses more generally. Using two rounds of national survey data from 2016 and 2020, we examine the associations between climate risk, political party affiliation, and one potential planned adaptation behavior, relocation. Our results suggest that both exposure to risk and political identification help shape respondents’ beliefs. Several measures of risk are associated with respondents’ reports that weather/climate might cause them to move in the future and there is evidence to suggest that their awareness of risk may have increased between the two surveys. Regarding political affiliation, we find in one set of analyses that Republicans interviewed in 2020 were less likely than other political subgroups, including Republicans interviewed in 2016, to say weather/climate could have a potentially strong influence on future relocation decisions. We also find strong effects of age in one set of analyses, where younger respondents were much more likely than those at middle or older ages to report that weather/climate could exert a strong to moderate influence on a future move.

Voluntary carbon market schemes facilitate funding for projects promoting sustainable land management practices to sequester carbon in natural sinks such as biomass and soil, while also supporting agricultural production. The effectiveness of VCM schemes relies on accurate measurement mechanisms that can directly attribute carbon accumulation to project activities. However, measuring carbon sequestration in soils has proven to be difficult and costly, especially in fragmented smallholdings predominant in global agriculture. The cost and accuracy limitations of current methods to monitor soil organic carbon (SOC) limit the participation of smallholder farmers in global carbon markets, where they could potentially be compensated for adopting sustainable farming practices that provide ecosystem benefits. This study evaluates nine different approaches for SOC accounting in smallholder agricultural projects. The approaches involve the use of proximal and remote sensing, along with process models. Our evaluation centres on stakeholder requirements for the Measurement, Reporting, and Verification system, using the criteria of accuracy, level of standardisation, costs, adoptability, and the advancement of community benefits. By analysing these criteria, we highlight opportunities and challenges associated with each approach, presenting suggestions to enhance their applicability for smallholder SOC accounting. The contextual foundation of the research is a case study on the Western Kenya Soil Carbon Project. Remote sensing shows promise in reducing costs for direct and modelling-based carbon measurement. While it is already being used in certain carbon market applications, transparency is vital for broader integration. This demands collaborative work and investment in infrastructure like spectral libraries and user-friendly tools. Balancing community benefits against the detached nature of remote techniques is essential. Enhancing information access aids farmers, boosting income through improved soil and crop productivity, even with remote monitoring. Handheld sensors can involve smallholders, given consistent protocols. Engaging the community in monitoring can cut project costs, enhance agricultural capabilities, and generate extra income.

This study uses a new dataset on gauge locations and catchments to assess the impact of 21st-century climate change on the hydrology of 221 high-mountain catchments in Central Asia. A steady-state stochastic soil moisture water balance model was employed to project changes in runoff and evaporation for 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, compared to the baseline period of 1979–2011. Baseline climate data were sourced from CHELSA V21 climatology, providing daily temperature and precipitation for each subcatchment. Future projections used bias-corrected outputs from four General Circulation Models under four pathways/scenarios (SSP1 RCP 2.6, SSP2 RCP 4.5, SSP3 RCP 7.0, SSP5 RCP 8.5). Global datasets informed soil parameter distribution, and glacier ablation data were integrated to refine discharge modeling and validated against long-term catchment discharge data. The atmospheric models predict an increase in median precipitation between 5.5% to 10.1% and a rise in median temperatures by 1.9 °C to 5.6 °C by the end of the 21st century, depending on the scenario and relative to the baseline. Hydrological model projections for this period indicate increases in actual evaporation between 7.3% to 17.4% and changes in discharge between + 1.1% to –2.7% for the SSP1 RCP 2.6 and SSP5 RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Under the most extreme climate scenario (SSP5-8.5), discharge increases of 3.8% and 5.0% are anticipated during the first and second future periods, followed by a decrease of -2.7% in the third period. Significant glacier wastage is expected in lower-lying runoff zones, with overall discharge reductions in parts of the Tien Shan, including the Naryn catchment. Conversely, high-elevation areas in the Gissar-Alay and Pamir mountains are projected to experience discharge increases, driven by enhanced glacier ablation and delayed peak water, among other things. Shifts in precipitation patterns suggest more extreme but less frequent events, potentially altering the hydroclimate risk landscape in the region. Our findings highlight varied hydrological responses to climate change throughout high-mountain Central Asia. These insights inform strategies for effective and sustainable water management at the national and transboundary levels and help guide local stakeholders.