Economic insecurity and the demand for populism in Europe

IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Economica Pub Date : 2024-02-13 DOI:10.1111/ecca.12513
L. Guiso, H. Herrera, M. Morelli, T. Sonno
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Abstract

We document the spiral of populism in Europe and the direct and indirect role of economic insecurity shocks. Using survey data on individual voting, we make two contributions to the literature. (i) Economic insecurity shocks have a significant impact on the populist vote share, directly as demand for protection, and indirectly through the induced changes in trust and attitudes. (ii) A key consequence of increased economic insecurity is a drop in turnout. The impact of this largely neglected turnout effect is substantial: conditional on voting, when economic insecurity increases, almost 40% of the induced change in the vote for a populist party comes from the turnout channel.

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欧洲的经济不安全和对民粹主义的需求
我们记录了民粹主义在欧洲的螺旋式上升,以及经济不安全冲击的直接和间接作用。利用个人投票的调查数据,我们对文献做出了两点贡献。(i) 经济不安全冲击对民粹主义的得票率有重大影响,直接表现为对保护的需求,间接表现为信任和态度的变化。(ii) 经济不安全加剧的一个主要后果是投票率下降。这一在很大程度上被忽视的投票率效应的影响是巨大的:在投票的条件下,当经济不安全感增加时,民粹主义政党得票率的诱导变化有近 40% 来自投票率渠道。
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来源期刊
Economica
Economica ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
49
审稿时长
5 weeks
期刊介绍: Economica is an international journal devoted to research in all branches of economics. Theoretical and empirical articles are welcome from all parts of the international research community. Economica is a leading economics journal, appearing high in the published citation rankings. In addition to the main papers which make up each issue, there is an extensive review section, covering a wide range of recently published titles at all levels.
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