The wage curve after the Great Recession

IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Economica Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI:10.1111/ecca.12515
David Blanchflower, Alex Bryson, Jackson Spurling
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Abstract

Most economists maintain that the labour market in the USA (and elsewhere) is ‘tight’ because unemployment rates are low, and the Beveridge curve (the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio) is high. They infer from this that there is potential for wage-push inflation. However, real wages fell rapidly in 2022, and prior to that, real wages had been stagnant for some time. We show that unemployment is not key to understanding wage formation in the USA, and has not been since the Great Recession. Instead, we show that rates of underemployment (the percentage of workers with part-time hours who would prefer more hours) and the rate of inactivity (the percentage of the civilian adult population who are out of the labour force) reduce wage pressure in the USA. This finding holds in panel data with state and year fixed effects in both annual and quarterly data for the period 1980–2022, and is supportive of a wage curve that fits the data much better than a Phillips curve. The unemployment rate no longer enters significantly negative in wage equations, however specified, in the years since 2008.

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大衰退后的工资曲线
大多数经济学家认为,美国(和其他国家)的劳动力市场 "紧张",因为失业率低,贝弗里奇曲线(职位空缺与失业率之比)高。他们由此推断,存在工资推动型通胀的潜力。然而,实际工资在 2022 年迅速下降,而在此之前,实际工资已经停滞了一段时间。我们的研究表明,失业率并不是理解美国工资形成的关键,自经济大衰退以来,失业率就不是关键。相反,我们的研究表明,美国的就业不足率(拥有兼职工作时间但希望增加工作时间的工人比例)和非在业率(脱离劳动力队伍的成年平民人口比例)降低了工资压力。在 1980-2022 年期间的年度和季度数据中,这一发现在带有州和年份固定效应的面板数据中都是成立的,并且支持比菲利普斯曲线更适合数据的工资曲线。自 2008 年以来,无论如何规定,失业率在工资方程中都不再出现明显的负值。
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来源期刊
Economica
Economica ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
49
审稿时长
5 weeks
期刊介绍: Economica is an international journal devoted to research in all branches of economics. Theoretical and empirical articles are welcome from all parts of the international research community. Economica is a leading economics journal, appearing high in the published citation rankings. In addition to the main papers which make up each issue, there is an extensive review section, covering a wide range of recently published titles at all levels.
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