Analyzing urban crash incidents: An advanced endogenous approach using spatiotemporal weights matrix

IF 2.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY Transactions in GIS Pub Date : 2024-02-14 DOI:10.1111/tgis.13138
Reza Mohammadi, Mohammad Taleai, Philipp Otto, Monika Sester
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Abstract

Contemporary spatial statistics studies often underestimate the complexity of road networks, thereby inhibiting the strategic development of effective interventions for car accidents. In response to this limitation, the primary objective of this study is to enhance the spatiotemporal analysis of urban crash data. We introduce an innovative spatial-temporal weight matrix (STWM) for this purpose. The STWM integrates external covariates, including road network topological measurements and economic variables, offering a more comprehensive view of the spatiotemporal dependence of road accidents. To evaluate the functionality of the presented STWM, random effect eigenvector spatial filtering analysis is employed on Boston's traffic accident data from January to March 2016. The STWM improves analysis, surpassing distance-based SWM with a lower residual standard error of 0.209 and a higher adjusted R2 of 0.417. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the influence of road length on crash incidents, spatially and temporally, with random standard errors of 0.002 for spatial effects and 0.026 for non-spatial effects. This is particularly evident in the north and center of the study area during specific periods. This information can help decision-makers develop more effective urban development models and reduce future crash risks.
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分析城市撞车事故:利用时空权重矩阵的先进内生方法
当代空间统计研究往往低估了道路网络的复杂性,从而阻碍了针对车祸制定有效干预措施的战略发展。针对这一局限性,本研究的主要目标是加强对城市车祸数据的时空分析。为此,我们引入了一种创新的时空权重矩阵(STWM)。STWM 整合了外部协变量,包括道路网络拓扑测量和经济变量,为道路事故的时空依赖性提供了更全面的视角。为了评估所提出的 STWM 的功能,对波士顿 2016 年 1 月至 3 月的交通事故数据采用了随机效应特征向量空间滤波分析。STWM 改进了分析,以 0.209 的较低残差标准误差和 0.417 的较高调整 R2 超过了基于距离的 SWM。此外,研究强调了道路长度对碰撞事故的时空影响,空间效应的随机标准误差为 0.002,非空间效应的随机标准误差为 0.026。在特定时期,这一点在研究区域的北部和中部尤为明显。这些信息可以帮助决策者开发更有效的城市发展模型,降低未来的撞车风险。
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来源期刊
Transactions in GIS
Transactions in GIS GEOGRAPHY-
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
8.30%
发文量
116
期刊介绍: Transactions in GIS is an international journal which provides a forum for high quality, original research articles, review articles, short notes and book reviews that focus on: - practical and theoretical issues influencing the development of GIS - the collection, analysis, modelling, interpretation and display of spatial data within GIS - the connections between GIS and related technologies - new GIS applications which help to solve problems affecting the natural or built environments, or business
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