INVESTIGATING THE RISK FACTORS AFFECTING THE OCCURRENCE, FREQUENCY, AND SEVERITY OF LARGE TRUCK ACCIDENTS IN AL-NAJAF GOVERNORATE, IRAQ

Firas Asad, Maysoon Saeed
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Abstract

In spite of the established literature-based evidence regarding the consequences of large truck accidents, limited body of research has been done on the characteristics and risk factors of such road accidents in Iraqi cities and governorates. According to national statistics, there has been a steady increase in the number of trucks and truck-related crashes over the past ten years. This paper aims to investigate the characteristics and risk factors associated with accidents involving large trucks in Al-Najaf governorate. A sample of 400 truck drivers were randomly selected and interviewed to collect the needed accident data. Four generalized linear models have been built; ordinal regression model for total injuries, binary logistic model for fatal accident occurrence, multinomial logit model for accident frequency, and ordinal regression model for accident cost. The analysis results revealed several influential predictors including truck driver age, education level, type of collision, truck speed, truck type, and street lighting condition. The obtained findings should be enlightening and helpful for government organizations looking to promote safety measures for sustainable freight truck transport.
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调查影响伊拉克纳杰夫省大型卡车事故发生率、频率和严重程度的风险因素
尽管有关大型卡车事故后果的文献证据确凿,但对伊拉克各城市和各省此类道路事故的特点和风险因素的研究却十分有限。根据国家统计数据,在过去十年中,卡车数量和与卡车相关的交通事故数量一直在稳步增长。本文旨在调查纳杰夫省涉及大型卡车事故的特点和相关风险因素。我们随机抽取了 400 名卡车司机进行访谈,以收集所需的事故数据。建立了四个广义线性模型:总伤害的序数回归模型、致命事故发生的二元 Logistic 模型、事故频率的多项式 logit 模型和事故成本的序数回归模型。分析结果显示了几个有影响的预测因素,包括卡车司机年龄、教育水平、碰撞类型、卡车速度、卡车类型和街道照明条件。这些研究结果将对政府机构推广可持续货运卡车运输安全措施有所启发和帮助。
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