Pierre Mérel , Emmanuel Paroissien , Matthew Gammans
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Recent years have seen a growing interest among empiricists in exploiting random weather fluctuations to identify climate change impacts, yet a clear understanding of the conditions under which short-run weather effects can reveal long-run climatic impacts is lacking. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for weather fluctuations to systematically identify the marginal effect of climate on an economic outcome. Under these conditions, empirical estimates of local marginal weather effects flexibly trace out a common long-run response function to climate that can be used for non-marginal climate change counterfactuals. Our application considers the effect of weather on county-level agricultural GDP in the United States. Depending on model specification, agricultural GDP is predicted to decrease by 6%–10% under a 2 °C warming scenario.
近年来，实证主义者对利用随机天气波动来识别气候变化影响的兴趣与日俱增，但对短期天气效应能够揭示长期气候影响的条件却缺乏清晰的认识。我们得出了天气波动系统识别气候对经济结果边际效应的必要条件和充分条件。在这些条件下，当地边际天气效应的经验估计值可以灵活地追踪出气候的共同长期响应函数，该函数可用于非边际气候变化反事实。我们的应用考虑了天气对美国县级农业 GDP 的影响。根据不同的模型规范，预测在升温 2 °C 的情况下，农业 GDP 将下降 6%-10%。
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Environmental Economics and Management publishes theoretical and empirical papers devoted to specific natural resources and environmental issues. For consideration, papers should (1) contain a substantial element embodying the linkage between economic systems and environmental and natural resources systems or (2) be of substantial importance in understanding the management and/or social control of the economy in its relations with the natural environment. Although the general orientation of the journal is toward economics, interdisciplinary papers by researchers in other fields of interest to resource and environmental economists will be welcomed.
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