Arctic springtime temperature and energy flux interannual variability is driven by 1- to 2-week frequency atmospheric events

Abstract

The Arctic is experiencing amplified climate warming, decreasing sea ice extent, increasingly earlier springtime snowmelt, and a related increase in fire activity. The transition from cold to warm season in the Arctic strongly varies between years, but our understanding of temperature and surface energy budget changes over the springtime is limited. Here we investigate intraseasonal variability of Arctic springtime temperature and surface energy budget components and their interannual trends over 40 years (1981–2020) across the terrestrial Arctic (above 60° N) using ERA5-Land reanalysis data. We found the central and western Siberian regions to have the highest interannual variability in spring temperature anomaly among all Arctic regions during the 40-year period. Also in this region, we discovered the strength increased for heat extremes and decreased for cold extremes when comparing the first and the last 20 years of our study. Peaks in composited extreme temperature and surface energy budget anomalies were observed to occur concurrently, indicating temperature extremes are not driven by surface energy budget components. Lastly, by utilizing power spectrum analyses, we identified the primary driver of temperature anomaly interannual variability to be operating at a 1- to 2-week frequency. Based on our findings and observations in the recent literature, we hypothesize that the observed interannual variability in springtime temperature can be attributed to increased Arctic sea ice decline and an increase in the frequency and strength of associated atmospheric blocking events.