A demographic survey of the Davis Strait polar bear subpopulation using physical and genetic capture-recapture-recovery sampling

Abstract

Conducting assessments to understand the effects of changing environmental conditions on polar bear (Ursus maritimus) demography has become increasingly important to inform management and conservation. Here, we combined physical (2005–2007) and genetic (2017–2018) mark-recapture with harvest recovery data (2005–2018) to estimate demographic rates of the Davis Strait polar bear subpopulation and examine the possible effects of climate, dynamic ice habitat, and prey resources on survival. Large sample sizes (e.g., 2,513 marked animals) allowed us to estimate temporal variation in annual survival rates using multistate mark-recapture-recovery models. We did not detect statistically significant effects of climate, ice habitat, and prey during the 13-year study. Estimated total abundance in 2006 was 2,190, credible interval (CRI) [1,954, 2,454] and 1,944, CRI [1,593, 2,366] in 2018. Geometric mean population growth rate (0.99, 95% CRI [0.97, 1.01]) indicated the subpopulation may have declined slightly between 2006 and 2018. However, we did not detect a declining trend in survival or substantial change in reproductive metrics over this period. Given forecasts of major environmental change we emphasize the need to review monitoring programs for this subpopulation.