Is a Māori contact-era population of 100,000 too low? Evidence from population density analogues

Abstract

This research considers the current New Zealand conventional wisdom of a Māori contact-era population of 100,000 circa-1770 using a variety of population density analogues. The first set of analogues examines estimated population densities of six districts in early-contact period New Zealand for which reasonable population estimates can be constructed using methods of historical demography. The second set examines estimated population densities of pre-industrial societies on large, relatively isolated temperate islands outside of New Zealand. The density research indicates that a contact-era Māori population in excess of 200,000 is a distinct possibility. Based on this density analysis the current conventional wisdom's figure of 100,000 appears to be—considerably—on the low side, and suggesting considerable catastrophic early post-contact population decline.