Differential treatment close to the election? The relationship between the electoral cycle and the deservingness heuristic

Abstract

This article investigates whether the electoral cycle – the phenomenon where politicians formulate more generous policy close to elections – is moderated by the deservingness status of the recipient of said generous policy. We argue that strategic politicians will design generous policy only for deserving recipients whose welfare needs are perceived as self-inflicted. To test this, we coded all adopted acts and parliamentary resolutions in the Danish parliament from 1975-2019 that target five societal groups. With linear probability models, we find that politicians do in fact introduce more generous policies for deserving groups close to elections, while the effect of the electoral cycle is non-existent for undeserving groups. Our findings point towards a more disaggregated approach in the study of the electoral cycle.