A new method for analysis of marine sustainable energy systems

Abstract

This paper proposes to utilize a new adaptive KDE (Kernel Density Estimation) methodology based on linear diffusion processes for predicting the probability distribution tails of sea state parameters. A key conclusion has been reached that the proposed new methodology can lead to more accurate prediction results than the traditional methods based on the fittings to a measured significant wave height data set at NDBC (National Data Buoy Center) station 46014. This proposed methodology has subsequently been utilized for deriving an accurate 50-year environmental contour line that was used in the dynamic analysis of a two-body point absorber wave energy converter. After systematically analyzing the calculation results, another key conclusion has been drawn that it is advantageous to use a more reliable contour line derived using the proposed new methodology for long-term dynamic analysis of wave energy converters. In summary, the proposed new adaptive KDE methodology is recommended to be utilized and to be continuously refined in future research work in the field of long-term reliability analysis of marine sustainable energy systems.