Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental risks: Long term and short term.

Abstract

The world is currently experiencing the environmental challenge of global warming, necessitating careful planning of carbon dioxide ( ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ ) emissions to deal with this problem. This study examines the environmental challenge posed by ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ emissions from both a long and short-term perspective. In the long term, despite efforts made by countries, our change-point detection analysis shows that there has been no structural change in ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ emissions since 1950. Without significant efforts, the carbon budget corresponding to the Paris Agreement's target will be exhausted by 2046. To achieve this target, a significant reduction in global ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ emissions of 3.22% per year is necessary. In the short term, COVID-19 is thought to have relieved pressure on ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ emissions. However, this study shows that ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ emissions quickly returned to normal levels after a brief downturn, and we provide information on the order of ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ emissions recovery for different sectors.