Risk Analysis最新文献

Online knowledge-sharing platforms construct risk knowledge and provide the audience with risk-related scientific facts. We study how speakers organize narratives in past, present, and future foci to influence the audience's emotions through the audience's appraisal of motive congruency and coping potential. Empirical evidence from 210 Technology, Entertainment, Design talks about disasters from 2002 to 2018 demonstrates that emphasizing the past, present, and future in risk narrative leads to the audience's comments with more negative, less positive, and more positive emotions, respectively. Concrete (vs. abstract) portrayal of the risk narrative improves the audience's situational awareness, enhances their risk appraisal, and intensifies the impact of temporal focus on emotions, providing evidence of how temporal focus impacts. These findings demonstrate that temporal focus can effectively reduce risk overreaction or ignorance and facilitate emotion regulation in risk communication.

The vulnerability of mega infrastructure projects (MIPs) has generated online public opinion crises, leading to public trust damage. However, few studies focused on the online dynamic trust of MIPs in such crises from the perspective of multiple users. Based on situational crisis communication theory, this study aims to explore the dynamic public trust in MIPs during online public opinion crises of extreme climate emergencies. The extreme heavy rainstorm event in Zhengzhou City, China, was selected as the case. Content analysis, the curve fitting method, and sentiment analysis were conducted to process the collected data from multiple users. The results indicated that the opinions of trust damage were set by "media practitioners" and led by "elites," whereas the opinions of trust repair were directed by "elites," led by "media practitioners," and defended by "individuals." Besides, trust dimensions would change over time; integrity-based and competence-based trust diffused alternatively. "Diminish," "deny," and "rebuild" strategies were proved to be the most effective strategies in integrity-based, competence-based, and competence and integrity-based trust repair, respectively. The findings can contribute to the authorities monitoring online public opinions in extreme climate emergencies and repairing trustworthy images.

Cybersecurity events can cause business disruptions, health and safety repercussions, financial costs, and negative publicity for large firms, and executives rank cybersecurity as a top operational concern. Although cybersecurity may be the most publicized information systems (IS) risk, large firms face a range of IS risks. Over the past three decades, researchers developed frameworks to categorize and evaluate IS risks. However, there have been few updates to these frameworks despite numerous technological advances, and we are not aware of any research that uses empirical data to map actual IS risks cited by large firms to these frameworks. To address this gap, we coded and analyzed text data from Item 1A (Risk Factors) of the fiscal year 2020 Securities and Exchange Commission Forms 10-K for all Fortune 1000 firms. We build on prior research to develop a framework that places 25 IS risks into four quadrants and 10 categories, and we record the number and type of IS risks cited by each firm. The risk of cyberattack is cited by virtually all Fortune 1000 firms, and the risk of software/hardware failure is cited by 90% of Fortune 1000 firms. Risks associated with data privacy law compliance are cited by 70% of Fortune 1000 firms, and risks associated with internet/telecommunications/power outage, human error, and natural disasters/terrorism are cited by 60% of Fortune 1000 firms. We perform additional analysis to identify differences in risk citation based on industry and financial measures.

Foodborne disease cases are increasingly occurring in home kitchens because of improper food handling behavior. Human factors are considered major determinants of such behavior, although economic factors, which have attracted little attention, may also be important influencers. Taking the service time of kitchen towels as an example, we construct a theoretical model to analyze food handling behavior under an economic framework and empirically explore its economic determinants. Empirically, we use a randomized controlled trial (RCT) coupled with pre- and postsurveys in rural China. The RCT intervention includes information with tips for proper kitchen towel use and in-kind subsidies of one, two, or three packs of kitchen towels, which is regarded as a price intervention. We find that information alone and information plus one pack of towels are not enough to stimulate behavior improvement, whereas information plus two or three packs is sufficient. This implies that the quantity of kitchen towels used increases only as the towel price drops below a certain threshold. As an early attempt, we indicate that food handling behavior is economically driven, suggesting that a well-designed policy should combine educational campaigns and appropriate economic incentives to improve such behavior to reduce the risk of foodborne disease.

Navy escorts are considered crucial in countering illegal piracy attacks. In this paper, a novel approach is developed to investigate the effect of navy escorts on piracy incidents by models based on two enhanced Tree-Augmented Naïve (TAN) Bayesian networks. This approach offers a systematic investigation into the various factors that influence pirate activities, and helps to identify changes in piracy attack behaviors when confronted by navy escorts and assess the effectiveness of anti-piracy measures. An empirical study is conducted utilizing a unique data set compiled from multiple sources from 2000 to 2019. The empirical evidence shows that there was a gradual reduction in the incidence of piracy attacks in East Africa following the implementation of navy escorts in 2009, but with a surge in 2010 and 2011. The data set is, thus, divided into two time periods at the point of 2009 to facilitate a robust and comprehensive analysis, resulting in the development of two TAN models. Meanwhile, the geographical distribution of pirate attacks has shifted from international waters to port areas and territorial waters. We argue that the surge and geographical shift could be attributed to the calculating behavior of pirates when they encounter external pressures. Finally, a Shapely approach is introduced to evaluate the potential effectiveness of the implemented risk management strategies from a Game Theory perspective. This study offers new insights into the promotion of navy escorts and contributes to the development of a framework for assessing piracy risks in uncertain and dynamic anti-piracy environments.

Vulnerability to heat waves and their negative effects on health vary not only due to individual factors but also due to situational factors, such as time and geography. Hence, we explored seasonal variations and predictors of heat wave feelings of threat across different heat wave geographical susceptibility locations in Portugal. A total of 238 Portuguese residents responded to a web-based longitudinal survey: before the summer, during a heat wave in the summer, during the summer, and after the summer. Geographical location was used as an indicator of risk exposure, operationalized as heat wave occurrence susceptibility (low, moderate, high). Heat wave demands and resources perceptions were assessed to compute an indicator of heat wave feelings of threat. During the heat wave, feelings of threat were higher among participants in high-susceptibility locations, with demands outweighing resources perceptions, suggesting greater distress and coping difficulty. Regression analysis suggested that older participants and female participants living in moderate-high-susceptibility locations had greater difficulty in recovering. Heat wave risk perception and positive affect about heat were identified as the most consistent predictors of heat wave feelings of threat, with risk perception increasing and positive affect decreasing such feelings. Participants with (individual and geographical) vulnerability profiles, who had greater difficulty in coping and recovering from heat waves, could benefit from resource-building/enhancing interventions. In a climatic crisis context, monitoring psychological responses to heat waves (e.g., threat) may enable anticipated action to build resilience before, rather than after, the effects become damaging to physical and psychological health.

Climate change risk assessment studies focus on identifying and analyzing different risks considering several climate change scenarios and on evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different adaptation measures. However, risk acceptability is often not reflected on in the context of climate change risk studies. Noting that the different climate change scenarios depict drastically contrasting images of the future in terms of population growth, economic development, and changes to life expectancy, this article uses risk acceptance criteria that are based on socioeconomic considerations to highlight the need for nonuniform risk acceptability across climate change scenarios. For this purpose, the optimum implied cost of averting a fatality derived based on the life quality index concept and the value of a quality-adjusted life year derived based on the time principle of acceptable life risk are assessed in three different climate change scenarios for Sweden. Additionally, an illustrative example that assesses the acceptable probability of failure of a steel rod under axial tension in the different climate change scenarios is presented. It is shown that risk acceptance criteria can vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios (e.g., more than 190% variation in the acceptable probability of failure for Sweden in the considered example). This article demonstrates that the ability of societies to afford risk-reducing measures may vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios. Hence, it can be concluded that (1) in the context of climate change risk assessments, risk acceptance criteria need to be developed to account for the different climate change scenarios, and (2) these criteria may vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios. Finally, relevant challenges and research needs are also provided.

For many years, the economic literature has recognized the role of attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions in estimating the value of a statistical life (VSL). However, few applications have attempted to include them. This article incorporates the perceived controllability and concern about traffic and cardiorespiratory risks to estimate VSL using a hybrid choice model (HCM). The HCM allows us to include unobserved heterogeneity and improve behavioral realism explicitly. Using data from a choice experiment conducted in Santiago, Chile, we estimate a VSL of US$3.78 million for traffic risks and US$2.06 million for cardiorespiratory risks. We found that higher controllability decreases the likelihood that the respondents would be willing to pay for risk reductions in both risks. On the other hand, concern about these risks decreases the willingness to pay for traffic risk reductions but increases it for cardiorespiratory risk reductions.