An optimal scheme assists the municipalities in Fukuoka, Japan in achieving their goal of 100% renewable energy supply and future decarbonization

IF 8 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Energy nexus Pub Date : 2024-02-16 DOI:10.1016/j.nexus.2024.100277
Richao Cong , Atsushi Fujiyama , Toru Matsumoto
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Abstract

To achieve the net-zero greenhouse gas emissions goal by 2050, it is essential for local municipalities to clarify the current state of renewable energy (RE) development, energy balance, and future development directions. Thus, an optimal energy supply system scheme with a coordination function between municipalities has been designed for Fukuoka Prefecture. We initially examined the spatial distribution of current RE supply and energy balance at the municipality level and estimated the total supply potential of Agri-Voltaic to be approximately 4145 GWh year−1. In our analysis, we found that in 2020 (the current scenario), the share of RE supply by municipalities relative to demand ranged from 3 % to 267 %, with an average of 32 %. Grid power accounted for 84 % of the total demand. However, considering factors like a declining birth rate, an aging population, and energy saving initiatives assumed for 2050 (the future scenario), we estimate a decrease in total energy demand from the current level of 30,950 to a future level of 24,339 GWh year−1. From an emissions perspective, optimizing the promotion of additional RE sources and coordinating RE usage between municipalities in the future will help achieve the goal of 100 % RE supply, meet the future energy demand at the prefecture level, and support regional decarbonization efforts (emission reductions: 7871 GgCO2).

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最佳方案帮助日本福冈市实现 100% 可再生能源供应和未来去碳化的目标
为了实现到 2050 年温室气体净零排放的目标,地方政府必须明确可再生能源(RE)的发展现状、能源平衡和未来发展方向。因此,我们为福冈县设计了一个具有市镇间协调功能的最佳能源供应系统方案。我们初步考察了市镇一级当前可再生能源供应和能源平衡的空间分布,并估算出农业光伏的总供应潜力约为每年 4145 千兆瓦时。通过分析,我们发现在 2020 年(当前情况),各市的可再生能源供应占需求的比例从 3% 到 267% 不等,平均为 32%。电网电力占总需求的 84%。然而,考虑到出生率下降、人口老龄化以及 2050 年(未来情景)的节能措施等因素,我们估计能源需求总量将从目前的 30950 千兆瓦时减少到未来的 24339 千兆瓦时/年。从排放的角度来看,优化推广更多的可再生能源,并在未来协调各市之间的可再生能源使用,将有助于实现 100% 可再生能源供应的目标,满足都道府县未来的能源需求,并支持地区的去碳化努力(减排量:7871 千兆克 CO2)。
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来源期刊
Energy nexus
Energy nexus Energy (General), Ecological Modelling, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Water Science and Technology, Agricultural and Biological Sciences (General)
CiteScore
7.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
109 days
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