Flood, fires, and drought: Do we have the tools to risk-assess for environmental management of extreme climatic events?

Abstract

Floods, fires, and droughts as extreme climate events are significantly increasing concerns in environmental management, ecosystems, societies, communities, and economies worldwide. Given the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events due to factors such as global change and rising temperatures, there is an urgent need to improve our risk assessment and management abilities. Conducting a comprehensive climate risk assessment is complex; however, this approach is essential for developing effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of these disasters on ecosystems and build adaptation and resilience, especially in marginalized and vulnerable communities worldwide. Thus, one important question comes to mind: Do we have the necessary tools to conduct comprehensive risk assessments for environmental management, given escalating climate events? In this editorial, we aim to cover the current state of risk assessment tools, identify gaps, and discuss what is needed to improve understanding and effective management of extreme climate events, using innovative approaches where necessary.

Both prospective and retrospective risk assessment methods/tools are important because they provide actionable assessments of climate impacts for communities, businesses, industries, and governments under a range of plausible scenarios. These methods/tools help combine information about hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, integrating climatic and other modeling to determine an estimation of risks (Fox et al., 2017). Additionally, these methods/tools can help us better understand the interactions and dynamics of multiple climate hazards, as well as the complex potential trade-offs between management scenarios, which are crucial for managing current and future climate change risks prevention, mitigation, and preparedness (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2012). By using risk assessment methods and tools, decision-makers can better understand the impacts of global change on communities and develop strategies for better protection and resiliency of people and the ecosystems upon which they rely. Hence, these tools provide a reliable and actionable approach to assessing and managing the risks posed by extreme climatic events.

Climate change risk assessments and management are complex concepts due to the ambiguity and uncertainty of climate change, interactions between multiple drivers, and the cascading nature of risks (Lawrence et al., 2020; Pescaroli & Alexander, 2018). For a more robust and holistic approach to risk assessment in environmental management of extreme events, future climate change risk assessments should integrate a deeper understanding of how various vulnerability factors including socioenvironmental and economic status and geographical location interact and influence risk preparedness, mitigation, and resilience (Weaver et al., 2017). Future research should incorporate and encourage participatory community research on climate risk and resilience, leveraging communities' cultural and traditional knowledge (David-Chavez & Gavin, 2018; Scherhaufer, 2021). Standardized metrics are essential in climate risk assessments for better comparability, quality, and credibility (Hoch & Trigg, 2019). With today's technological advancement, satellite data, artificial intelligence, and remote sensing are valuable tools for risk management and preparedness as they offer advanced tools for real-time monitoring that could be useful in early warning notifications, prediction, and comprehensive analysis of environmental changes and potential hazards (Abid et al., 2021; Sun et al., 2020). While these tools have limitations, they remain beneficial for integrated climatic risk assessments. Integrated risk assessment and management will further progress with a more cross-sectional collaboration approach where various stakeholders can engage and participate, ensuring that climatic risk assessments are translated and incorporated into policy- and decision-making processes from local to global levels.