How cyber operations can reduce escalation pressures: Evidence from an experimental wargame study

IF 3.4 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI:10.1177/00223433231219440
Benjamin Jensen, Brandon Valeriano, Sam Whitt
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Abstract

Cyber operations ranging from deception and espionage to disruption and high-end degradation have become a central feature of modern statecraft in the digital age, yet we lack a clear understanding of how decision-makers employ and respond to cyber operations in times of crisis. Our research provides theoretical mechanisms and empirical evidence for understanding how decision-makers react to cyber triggers and utilize cyber responses during crises. Specifically, we argue that the availability of cyber response creates off-ramps for non-escalatory engagement. Based on experimental wargames involving rival states with power parity in militarized disputes and randomized cyber triggers and response options, we find the availability of cyber response options reduces escalatory behavior via a substitution mechanism. In the absence of cyber response options, however, participants pursue more conventional, escalatory actions, regardless of the triggering mechanism. Our findings underscore how enhancing the availability of cyber response options might reduce strategic escalation risks and offer the space to bargain during periods of conflict.
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网络行动如何减少升级压力:来自战争游戏实验研究的证据
从欺骗和间谍活动到破坏和高端降级,网络行动已成为数字时代现代国家政治的核心特征,但我们对决策者在危机时刻如何运用和应对网络行动缺乏清晰的认识。我们的研究提供了理论机制和经验证据,有助于理解决策者在危机期间如何对网络触发因素做出反应并利用网络应对。具体来说,我们认为网络应对措施的可用性为非升级性交战创造了匝道。基于涉及军事化争端中力量对比的敌对国家的实验性战争游戏,以及随机网络触发和响应选项,我们发现网络响应选项的可用性通过替代机制减少了升级行为。然而,在没有网络应对选项的情况下,无论触发机制如何,参与者都会采取更常规的升级行动。我们的研究结果强调了加强网络应对方案的可用性可以降低战略升级风险,并在冲突期间提供讨价还价的空间。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.70
自引率
5.60%
发文量
80
期刊介绍: Journal of Peace Research is an interdisciplinary and international peer reviewed bimonthly journal of scholarly work in peace research. Edited at the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), by an international editorial committee, Journal of Peace Research strives for a global focus on conflict and peacemaking. From its establishment in 1964, authors from over 50 countries have published in JPR. The Journal encourages a wide conception of peace, but focuses on the causes of violence and conflict resolution. Without sacrificing the requirements for theoretical rigour and methodological sophistication, articles directed towards ways and means of peace are favoured.
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