Characterizing land use-land cover changes in N’fis watershed, Western High Atlas, Morocco (1984–2022)

Abstract

The examination of changes in land use and land cover (LULC) holds a pivotal role in advancing our comprehension of underlying processes and mechanisms. The advancement of sophisticated earth observation programs has opened unprecedented opportunities to meticulously observe geographical areas, courtesy of the vast array of satellite imagery available across time. However, effectively analyzing this wealth of data to process LULC information remains a significant challenge within remote sensing. Recent times have witnessed the introduction of diverse techniques for scrutinizing satellite images, encompassing remote sensing technologies and machine/deep learning (M/DL) methods. This research endeavors to explore the transformation of LULC within the N’fis watershed, situated in the Western High Atlas region of Morocco, covering the timeline from 1984 to 2022. By harnessing remote sensing technologies, we have traced alterations in dams, forests, agriculture, and soil over this duration. Moreover, we have conducted comparisons among multiple machine and deep learning (M/DL) models to simulate and forecast LULC changes specifically for the year 2030. Our study outcomes manifest remarkable accuracy in LULC classification, consistently ranging between 91% and 97% for most years, with the kappa coefficient maintaining a range between 89% and 95%. Regarding predictive analysis, the Random Forest (RF) model emerges as the most precise, displaying an accuracy rate of 91%.